Projecting Kansas Basketball’s Rotation for March Madness Games

Over the final few games of the regular season, Kansas head coach Bill Self encountered some unexpected issues with his lineup. Along with a lack of bench production, Jayhawks power forward Bryson Tiller and Self reached somewhat of an impasse, as the redshirt freshman has been playing his worst basketball of the season.

The Jayhawks experimented with some lineup changes in the Big 12 Tournament, though they were ultimately eliminated in the semifinals by Houston, where Tiller did not play a minute in the second half. Self has some big decisions to make regarding his rotation ahead of the tournament.

Is it time for a starting lineup change to replace the struggling Tiller, or should KU stick with its group? Here's how the rotation should shake out in March.

Starting Five Stays the Same Despite Rocky Stretch

G Melvin Council Jr.
G Darryn Peterson
G Tre White
F Bryson Tiller
C Flory Bidunga

There is no doubt that Tiller needs to be better moving forward, as he has averaged just 5.1 points and 5.4 rebounds on 36.1% shooting over his past seven games. But is changing the starting lineup right as postseason play begins really the answer?

KU has thrived with the double-big lineup at times, as it helps compensate for Flory Bidunga's lack of height down low. It improves the team on the boards and provides more of an interior presence defensively.

Small-ball lineups with Tre White at the four have had some success, but not enough to justify a full-time shift. Adding another guard to space the floor doesn't solve much when there is only one or two consistent 3-point threats on most nights.

Tiller has still shown enough this season to warrant a start, at least in the first-round matchup. If Self decides to open a second half with Elmarko Jackson alongside the starters, that is a different conversation to be had, but no drastic moves should be made unless the circumstances are dire.

Top Bench Options: Elmarko Jackson, Jamari McDowell and... Kohl Rosario?

The bench is where things get tricky. KU's second unit ranks in the bottom 15 nationally in bench points per game, highlighting just how starter-heavy this team has been.

Jackson is the clear sixth man, while McDowell has carved out a role thanks to his perimeter shooting. The question is whether Self is willing to expand the rotation to eight players in the tournament.

It might sound unconventional, but Kohl Rosario deserves a handful of meaningful minutes in the Big Dance. After beginning the season in the starting lineup, the Miami native was gradually phased out of the rotation due to shooting struggles.

Still, he brings value with his athleticism and activity on the offensive glass. In the 22-point loss to Houston — a game with few positives — Rosario was one of the lone bright spots, scoring eight points in a short stretch while knocking down both of his 3-point attempts and grabbing four rebounds.

Self has said in the past that Jayden Dawson would win the team a tournament game, but that feels increasingly difficult to believe right now. The Loyola Chicago transfer's shooting percentage has dropped to 31.5% on the year, and he hasn't made more than one field goal in a game since mid-November.

If Self looks to adjust the rotation just a bit, giving Rosario a chance could be a bold but necessary move. Opponents will at least respect his perimeter shot, and the defensive energy he brings could help swing the momentum of a game in KU's favor.