Projecting Kansas Basketball’s Tournament Seeding on Selection Sunday

Will Kansas secure a four or five seed in the Big Dance?

Mar 12, 2026; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas Jayhawks coach Bob Self watches game play during the second half against the TCU Horned Frogs at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-Imagn Images | William Purnell-Imagn Images

Kansas basketball has been trending downward ever since its eight-game winning streak in the middle of conference play. Bill Self's squad went 1-1 in the Big 12 Tournament, opening with a narrow win over TCU and then losing to Houston in a blowout in the semifinal on Friday.

Now, the Jayhawks are awaiting their fate on Selection Sunday this evening. Almost all projections place them between a No. 4 and No. 5 seed, despite once being viewed as a potential No. 3 seed before their recent rough patch.

Although the difference between a No. 4 and No. 5 seed is negligible and will only change the team's first-round opponent, it could still have a significant effect on the future matchups the team faces in the tournament and other potential outcomes. Where will the selection committee place the Jayhawks today?

Kansas Jayhawks head coach Bill Self smiles over a call during the Sunflower Showdown game inside Allen Fieldhouse in Lawrence, Kansas, on Saturday, March 7, 2026. | Evert Nelson/The Capital-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Kansas Basketball Seeding Prediction: No. 4 Seed in Midwest Region

ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi slotted KU on the No. 5 seed line in his most recent projections on Sunday afternoon, the first time the program dropped below a four seed since mid-January. However, we're going to push the Jayhawks up a spot in our predictions.

Vanderbilt moved from a No. 5 to a No. 4 seed following its victory over Florida yesterday, but it just lost the SEC Championship game 86-75 to Arkansas. That puts the Commodores back in a similar position they were yesterday, and their 26-8 overall record and 11-7 conference mark, paired with a far weaker strength of schedule than Kansas, makes a massive difference.

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— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) March 15, 2026

Right now, Kansas' No. 21 ranking in the NET is lower than any team currently projected on the four seed line. In fact, it would give them a hypothetical six seed, given that they are outside the top 20.

But the Jayhawks still have several things in their favor, such as their No. 1-ranked strength of schedule in the country. The Jayhawks finished conference play with a 12-6 record, good for third in the Big 12, and took down projected top-two seeds in Arizona, Houston, and Iowa State.

There is no doubt that the Jayhawks lost several games they should have won, and a few of their bad road losses may ultimately impact the seeding. Still, it will come down to whether the selection committee values KU's strength of schedule or focuses more on the total number of wins and losses in the end.