The Case For Cal Baptist To Upset Kansas In NCAA Tournament

With a high-scoring guard in Dominique Daniels Jr. and a strong group of rebounders, could No. 13 seed Cal Baptist stun No. 4 seed Kansas in the NCAA Tournament?

Kansas Jayhawks guard Darryn Peterson (22) talks with teammates during a timeout against the TCU Horned Frogs at T-Mobile Center. | William Purnell-Imagn Images

Looking through the 68-team field for upsets is part of what makes the NCAA Tournament fun.

If you can be the rare person to pick out Fairleigh Dickinson, UMBC or Saint Peter's –– or even the more realistic 12-seed over 5-seed upset –– you may even win your March Madness pool.

While last season's NCAA Tournament was more chalky than normal, a few upsets are bound to happen this season. No. 4 seed Kansas is a team that will naturally be considered, as No. 13 seeds have 33 first-round victories in 40 NCAA Tournaments since 1985.

So going into Friday night's game, here are three reasons why Cal Baptist could pull off the upset, plus our final thoughts on the matchup below.

Dominique Daniels Jr. has the makings of a March Madness legend

California Baptist Lancers guard Dominique Daniels Jr. (1) drives to the basket against the Utah Utes at Jon M. Huntsman Center. | Rob Gray-Imagn Images

When thinking of recent individual stars of the NCAA Tournament, names like Kemba Walker, Shabazz Napier and Carsen Edwards come to mind. One thing they have in common with Cal Baptist guard Dominique Daniels Jr. is that they're all small guards capable of taking over a game.

To be clear, there's no chance Cal Baptist makes a deep run like the aforementioned March Madness legends. They're heavy underdogs against Kansas for a reason. But in a one-game setting, Daniels could produce memories similar to Edwards' 42-point games against Villanova and Virginia in 2019, or Walker's 36-point game in the 2011 Sweet 16.

Daniels has already proven he's capable of that type of explosion, just look at his 47 and 41-point games against Utah Valley and Utah Tech this season. Those are just two of his 15 games with 25-plus points this season. Averaging 23.2 points per game, Daniels is the second-leading scorer among NCAA Tournament participants, only behind BYU's AJ Dybantsa –– the potential No. 1 NBA Draft pick.

Not many people know about Daniels yet, but he could become the talk of the tournament if he carries Cal Baptist to a miraculous win over a blue blood like Kansas.

Cal Baptist is a strong rebounding team

Utah Utes forward Josh Hayes (7) and California Baptist Lancers forward Jonathan Griman (8) battle for a rebound at Jon M. Huntsman Center. | Rob Gray-Imagn Images

Daniels could score 35 points in a losing effort. So if Cal Baptist is really going to pull off the upset, it's going to take more than the 5-foot-10 guard's scoring.

One of the Lancers' biggest strengths this season is their team rebounding. They rank 21st nationally with 39.9 rebounds per game, and they're especially relentless on the offensive glass, ranking ninth nationally with 13.9 offensive rebounds per game.

The Lancers rank also 50th nationally in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency, which is 36th among 68 NCAA Tournament teams.

Cal Baptist doesn't necessarily have one dominant rebounder, but four players average at least 4.8 rebounds per game. That's reflected by their front court depth, including 6-foot-11 Jonathan Griman, 7-foot Bradey Henige, 6-foot-10 Thomas Ndong, 6-foot-8 Rene D'Amelio and 7-foot Nathaniel Garcia.

It's hard to fully trust Kansas

Kansas Jayhawks on the bench during a loss to the Houston Cougars in the Big 12 Tournament at the T-Mobile Center. | William Purnell-Imagn Images

Kansas has shown it can beat anyone in the country. Just look at its wins over No. 1 Arizona, No. 2 Iowa State and No. 5 Houston.

But the Jayhawks have also had frustrating letdowns like their losses to Arizona State, Cincinnati and West Virginia, a trio of teams that missed the NCAA Tournament. Even the 22-point Big 12 Tournament loss to Houston raised some questions, including, which version of Kansas will show up in the NCAA Tournament?

Darryn Peterson said after a Big 12 Tournament win over TCU that, "to finally feel free out there feels great," and his larger workload of minutes reflected that. So, is he ready to put together his best stretch of games when it matters most?

Few teams, if any, have a better individual player than Peterson at his best. But that remains a question until proven otherwise, as does Kansas' lack of depth and inconsistent play from the supporting cast. It's why I can envision anything from a first-round exit to a Final Four run from this team.

So, will the upset actually happen?

Kansas Jayhawks coach Bill Self against the Kansas State Wildcats at Allen Fieldhouse. | Scott Sewell-Imagn Images

Although I just spent the entire article stating why Cal Baptist could defeat Kansas, it's not an upset I'm picking in my bracket. In three games against high-major opponents, the Lancers lost 91-85 at Utah (10-22), 91-60 versus BYU (23-11) and 78-70 at Colorado (17-15).

Kansas will likely put Melvin Council Jr. on Daniels, who hasn't seen a defender quite like the Jayhawks' 6-foot-4 senior this season. Council is a tenacious defender with a six-inch height advantage who should be able to keep Daniels relatively in check.

When it comes to Cal Baptist's rebounding ability, Kansas has what it takes to offset that. The Jayhawks rank 36th nationally with 38.8 rebounds per game, and Cal Baptist hasn't faced a dominant interior presence like Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year Flory Bidunga.

There's also the coaching factor, and Kansas has the advantage in that department against most teams with Hall of Fame coach Bill Self. So while there are a few reasons I could see Cal Baptist making this one interesting, I don't think the upset will come to fruition.