20 Days Until Kansas Football: Texas Tech Preview
Texas Tech had two coaches last year and neither of them is leading the Red Raiders in 2022. Matt Wells went 5-3 to start the season but was fired before his third season was up, and interim coach Sonny Cumbie ended the year 2-3, including a 34-7 win over Mississippi State in the Liberty Bowl.
Now, the head coach is Joey McGuire, whose first game as a head coach in college will be on September 3 against Murray State. Which is to say, it’s hard to know what the Red Raiders will look like this fall.
Pre-Game Notes
What we do know is that it’s been a down period for Tech of late. Last year was the first with a winning record for the Red Raiders since 2015. Though they did reach a bowl game (ending the season at 6-7) in 2017 and was a game shy of bowl eligibility two other times.
The other thing we know is the matchup against Kansas has been one-sided. The Jayhawks and Red Raiders have faced off 23 times and Tech has won 21 of them. Though one of those wins did come just three seasons ago when Kansas won 37-34 behind Carter Stanley’s 415 yards and three touchdowns.
Mike Plank Four-Down Scouting Report
First Down
The Red Raiders’ head man made a name for himself at the Texas high school ranks, winning three state titles with Cedar Hill and racking up a 141-42 record, leading to him being named to the Texas High School Football Hall of Fame this year. He then moved to the college ranks in a handful of assistant positions at Baylor.
Second Down
Tech has a three-man race at quarterback with no decision being made as of this publishing. Tyler Shough put up 872 yards and six TDs in four games last year before a collarbone injury ended his year. Donovan Smith had the second-most attempts last year (behind Henry Colombi) and collected 1,181 yards and seven TDs. Then you have Behren Morton, who only attempted three passes as a freshman, but is a four-star prospect that picked Tech over Baylor.
Third Down
The group with the most production returning is at running back. SaRodorick Thompson and Tahj Brooks each had at least 500 yards on the ground last year and were good at finding the end zone. Thompson had 10 rushing touchdowns while Brooks chipped in seven more.
Fourth Down
On defense, be on the lookout for Junior Dadrion Taylor-Demerson who last year finished either second or third in the Big 12 in passes defended, pass breakups, and interceptions.
Matchup On Paper
Tech has established a reputation as a ball-slinging, high-powered offense, but while it has been respectable of late, it hasn’t been eye-catching. The Red Raiders haven’t been in the top 50 nationally in points per game since 2018 and in 2021, Tech was sixth in conference play at 30.3 points per game. The defense was similar. Tech gave up 30.2 ppg in conference games last year, which was seventh best.
To solve for this, McGuire brought back Zach Kittley to lead the offense. Kittley worked at Tech under Kliff Kingsbury during the Patrick Mahomes era, and more recently saw his Houston Baptist team (where he was OC) put up 600 yards against Tech in 2020 and in 2021, his Western Kentucky offense led the nation in passing yards per game and quarterback Bailey Zappe set FBS records for passing yards and touchdown passes. So expect Tech to try and get back to its air-it-out ways this year.
On defense, it sounds like McGuire will likely keep a similar scheme to what he ran at Baylor the past few years. And he brought in 30-year veteran Tim DeRuyter as defensive coordinator. As Sam Khan Jr. of The Athletic points out, this means a lot of three-defensive-lineman sets rather than four on the line. DeRuyter used three defensive linemen 99 percent of the time the last two years, while McGuire did so more than 80 percent of the time in his last two seasons.
Way-too-Early Trend Lines
Season odds from DraftKings have the Texas Tech win total at 5.5, and The Action Network is less optimistic, with projections for the Red Raiders coming in at 4.7 wins. Kansas and Tech won’t play until November 12, but they do have a common non-conference opponent that could shed some light on what’s to come. The week before Houston faces the Jayhawks in Houston, the Cougars will travel to Lubbock, and Tech is currently favored by 4.5 points.
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