34 Days Until Kansas Football: Baylor Preview
Unlike TCU and Oklahoma, Baylor has its coach returning, and Dave Aranda has made as big of a jump in terms of credibility and praise over the past year as arguably anyone in the country.
The Bears are the reigning Big 12 champions and are coming off a 12-2 season that put them fifth in the final AP poll after a win over Ole Miss in the Sugar Bowl.
Kansas will get its look at Baylor when it travels to Waco on October 22. Here’s what we know about the Bears three months out.
Pre-Game Notes
Last year’s conference title was Baylor’s third since joining the Big 12, but the first since the Bears shared it with TCU in 2014. Last year was also the first time since then that someone other than Oklahoma won the league.
In terms of the Jayhawks’ history against Baylor on the gridiron, the Bears have been the dominant one, winning the last 12 meetings. The first matchup actually goes back to 1971 when Kansas held the Bears to a goose egg, winning 22-0. From there on, it would be a series of home-and-homes in 1988-89 (Baylor won both), and 1998-99, 2002-03, and 2006-07, where each team won its home game and lost on the road.
Mike Plank Four-Down Scouting Report
First Down
After some rumors floating around that Aranda could get poached away from Baylor, he signed a contract extension through 2029. But the Bears had six players drafted and lost quite a bit of production on offense that it will need to fill. Only roughly 20 percent of Baylor’s passing and receiving yards are back and just 14 percent of its rushing yards.
Second Down
Gerry Bohannon was the main starting quarterback for Baylor’s conference championship team, playing in 12 games, but redshirt freshman Blake Shapen also played in five games. And in late April, Aranda named Shapen the starter — as Kansas fans, I’m not sure we knew those decisions could be made before August — and that led to Bohannon transferring to South Florida. The game that may have sealed it was the Big 12 Championship game against Oklahoma State, when Shapen completed 23 of 28 passes for 180 yards and three touchdowns.
Third Down
Despite what Baylor lost at the skill positions, the trenches have lots of familiar faces. The Bears have four offensive line starters back in 2022 and three starters returning on the defensive line. This is an offensive group that was key to Baylor being the conference’s best rushing team, while also not giving up many sacks.
Fourth Down
A key for Baylor’s defense was limiting production early on downs. Pro Football Focus found that opponents averaged eight yards to go on third downs against Baylor in 2021, which was the seventh-best mark in the country.
Matchup On Paper
Baylor was balanced in 2020, attempting three more pass attempts per game than it did rushes. But last year with that offensive line and Abram Smith in the backfield (rushing for 1,601 yards and 12 touchdowns), the Bears averaged 40 rushing attempts compared to just 26 passes. As mentioned, the offensive line is back, but without Smith or Trestan Ebner, it’s unclear if the Bears will be as effective on the ground.
On defense, Baylor was stout in both aspects of the game, only allowing an average of 348 yards per game. And it was the secondary that was big in keeping opponents out of the end zone. Opponents only averaged 0.9 passing touchdowns per game while Baylor averaged 1.4 interceptions per game.
Way-to-Early Trend Lines
In the last 10 matchups between Kansas and Baylor, the Bears have won by more than 30 points seven times, with the closest margin being 19 (26-7) in 2018. And if last year is any indication, Baylor will usually cover the spread and often while hitting the under. The Bears covered the spread in four of its final five games, and all of them went under.
