Computer Models Predict Remainder of Kansas Basketball Season

As the Kansas Jayhawks head into the final stretch of the regular season, analytics and computer models are forecasting how Bill Self’s team will finish.

With tough matchups ahead, Kansas will need to fight for every win to solidify its NCAA Tournament standing.

Here’s what the key predictive models—KenPom, ESPN BPI, and the Massey Index—are saying about the Jayhawks' remaining games.

KenPom Projections

Feb 22, 2025; Lawrence, Kansas, USA; Kansas Jayhawks forward Flory Bidunga (40) dunks the ball as Oklahoma State Cowboys guard Connor Dow (13) looks on during the second half at Allen Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images | Denny Medley-Imagn Images

KenPom predicts Kansas will finish 20-11 overall and 11-9 in Big 12 play, with a mix of close wins and a tough road loss.

Feb. 24 at Colorado – Win, 73-66 (74% chance)
March 1 vs. Texas Tech – Win, 72-71 (55% chance)
March 3 at Houston – Loss, 71-60 (17% chance)
March 8 vs. Arizona – Win, 75-73 (59% chance)

KenPom suggests Kansas has a strong chance of taking care of business against Colorado and Arizona but faces a real test against Houston on the road and Texas Tech at home.

ESPN BPI Projections

Feb 15, 2025; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; Kansas Jayhawks head coach Bill Self reacts to a call against the Utah Utes during the first half at the Jon M. Huntsman Center. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Creveling-Imagn Images | Christopher Creveling-Imagn Images

ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) gives Kansas a solid chance in most matchups, though the game at Houston is a major hurdle.

Feb. 24 at Colorado – 80.6% chance to win
March 1 vs. Texas Tech – 59.7% chance to win
March 3 at Houston – 15.7% chance to win
March 8 vs. Arizona – 57.6% chance to win

BPI backs Kansas in three of its four remaining games, with the Houston matchup appearing as the biggest challenge.

Massey Index Predictions

Feb 22, 2025; Lawrence, Kansas, USA; Kansas Jayhawks guard Zeke Mayo (5) shoots a three point shot against the Oklahoma State Cowboys during the second half at Allen Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images | Denny Medley-Imagn Images

The Massey Index also expects Kansas to go 3-1 down the stretch, projecting a win over Arizona in the season finale.

Feb. 24 at Colorado – Win, 72-68 (65% chance)
March 1 vs. Texas Tech – Win, 73-70 (58% chance)
March 3 at Houston – Loss, 70-62 (21% chance)
March 8 vs. Arizona – Win, 76-75 (52% chance)

Massey sees Kansas surviving some close battles but ultimately struggling on the road against Houston.

What It Means for Kansas

If these predictions hold, Kansas would finish 20-11 (11-9 Big 12) heading into the Big 12 Tournament.

While not the dominant regular-season performance Jayhawks fans are used to, it would keep them in a strong position for an NCAA Tournament bid, likely as a five-seed.