Three reasons Kentucky will lose to Santa Clara in the NCAA Tournament

These three things would hurt Kentucky against Santa Clara.

Feb 4, 2026; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Kentucky Wildcats head coach Mark Pope yells to his players during the first half against the Oklahoma Sooners at Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images | Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

Mark Pope and the Kentucky Wildcats are about to get things kicked off in the NCAA Tournament with a game that many in the college basketball world have bookmarked as one of the best games of the first round. Kentucky will be taking on the Santa Clara Broncos of the WCC, and a lot of folks have the Wildcats on upset watch.

While some might not know all that much about Santa Clara, they have a very good team this season, which is why they are 35th in the KenPom rankings. The point is, if the Wildcats let their guard down, this Santa Clara team is more than capable of pulling off the upset.

Earlier, I wrote three reasons why the Kentucky Wildcats will beat the Santa Clara Broncos, but now it is time to look at the flip side. Let’s check out three reasons why Kentucky will lose to Santa Clara in the NCAA Tournament.

Three reasons Kentucky will lose to Santa Clara in the NCAA Tournament

The Broncos get hot from three

March 10, 2026; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Santa Clara Broncos forward Elijah Mahi (8) shoots the basketball against Gonzaga Bulldogs forward Emmanuel Innocenti (5) during the second half at Orleans Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-Imagn Images | Kyle Terada-Imagn Images

Santa Clara is a really good shooting team. The Wildcats have been burned of late by lower seeds getting hot from three in the NCAA Tournament, and they need to avoid that happening again on Friday. The Broncos shoot 29.2 threes per game, which is good for the 22nd most in the nation. They shoot 34.6% on those three-point attempts, so the Wildcats must be ready to defend the three-point line. Three-point defense has been an issue for Kentucky of late, and if it is once again in this game, the Wildcats will be heading home early.

Santa Clara dominates the offensive glass

March 10, 2026; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Santa Clara Broncos forward Allen Graves (22) celebrates against the Gonzaga Bulldogs during the first half at Orleans Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-Imagn Images | Kyle Terada-Imagn Images

The Broncos are also really good on the offensive glass. Often, teams that shoot a lot of threes do well on the offensive glass since long rebounds tend to be more 50/50 balls. This is the case for Santa Clara, but they are also a big team. Offensive rebounds often lead to good looks from three, so Kentucky needs to make sure they are securing all of the boards on defense. If the Broncos have a ton of second-chance opportunities, this could lead to a loss for Mark Pope’s team.

Collin Chandler struggles

Feb 28, 2026; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Kentucky Wildcats guard Collin Chandler (5) looks to the Kentucky bench during the first half against the Vanderbilt Commodores at Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images | Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

Collin Chandler has been the wildcard for this Kentucky team. When he plays well more times than not the Wildcats are going to win. In games where Chandler does not play his best, the Wildcats don’t often win. The point is in the Big Dance, Kentucky needs Chandler to play well. He is the best three-point shooter this team has, so Chandler getting hot from three would be very helpful to this team's chances of moving on. If he struggles, the Wildcats will be on a plane home Friday evening.