ESPN's FPI Predicts Kansas State To Have Historic Season

Game day has finally arrived.

Before the season officially kicks off, let's take one final look at K-State's schedule. College football analysts and reporters from across the country have made their picks for the upcoming season, and now we have a look at the season through ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). The FPI is a predictive metric that uses simulations based on a team's strength and past performances to predict a game's outcome.

Kansas State kicks off its highly anticipated season today, and the FPI is adding fuel to the already raging fire of excitement.

Game 1 vs Iowa State (at Aviva Stadium): FPI gives Kansas State a 62.3% chance to win this game (1-0, 1-0 Big 12)

Kansas State hasn't beat Iowa State since the 2022 season, but FPI sees that changing.

This would be a huge win to kick off the Wildcats' season as they hunt for their first College Football Playoff birth. Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson talked about entering the game with added motivation because of the last two meetings between the teams. In the matchup last season, Johnson was 12-28 for 220 yards and three touchdowns. Kansas State has retooled its wide receiver room for this season and features a strong running game led by Dylan Edwards. The K-State defense will look to keep Iowa State quarterback Rocco Becht in check and walk out of Dublin, Ireland, with a win and take care of business once they return to Manhattan, Kan.

Game 2 vs North Dakota: FPI gives Kansas State a 98% chance to win this game (2-0, 1-0 Big 12)

After a Week 0 battle in Ireland, the Wildcats return home to take on FCS North Dakota. FPI sees K-State taking care of business in the home opener.

Game 3 vs Army: FPI gives Kansas State a 93.5% chance to win this game (3-0, 1-0 Big 12)

Kansas State has a more challenging test in week 3, but FPI sees Kansas State staying perfect before it makes the trip to Arizona the following week. Army is ranked No. 95 of 136 in terms of FPI, and the simulation reflects this, giving Army only a 6.5% chance to win.

Game 4 at Arizona: FPI gives Kansas State a 74.8% chance to win this game (4-0, 1-0 Big 12)

The first true road test for Kansas State comes in its fourth game of the season. Arizona has the second-worst FPI rating in the Big 12, opening the season at 0.2, but as last season showed, preseason rankings don't mean a lot in the Big 12.

Johnson looked strong last season against then No. 20-ranked Arizona with 156 yards and two touchdowns, going 14-23, adding 110 yards on the ground. Look for Kansas State to start the season strong after getting the win in Tucson, Ariz.

Game 5 vs UCF: FPI gives Kansas State a 76.8% chance to win this game (5-0, 2-0 Big 12)

The sample size of Kansas State vs UCF is small, as the two programs have only met twice, but K-State won both matchups.

UCF has not posted a winning season since moving to the Big 12 in 2023. The Golden Knights have a new coach in Scott Frost, but as he looks to build a culture in Orlando, K-State's defined culture and talent give the Wildcats an edge coming off their bye week, and move them to 3-0 in conference play.

Game 6 at Baylor: FPI gives Kansas State a 52% chance to win this game (6-0, 3-0 Big 12)

Kansas State sees a tall task week 6 as they head into Waco, Texas.

This should be a star-studded quarterback battle between Johnson and Baylor's Sawyer Robertson. Kansas State coach Chris Klieman will look to move his record against Baylor to .500, currently holding a 2-3 record against the Bears in his time at K-State. FPI shows this contest being a battle, but sees Kansas State moving to 6-0 and clinching bowl eligibility.

Game 7 vs TCU: FPI gives Kansas State a 70.1% chance to win this game (7-0, 4-0 Big 12)

The Wildcats return home after the road test to take on the Horned Frogs. Klieman has had a lot of success against TCU in his tenure at K-State, posting a 5-1 record. Klieman's only loss against TCU came in the regular season in 2022 before he got his revenge in the Big 12 championship game.

Johnson saw action against TCU in his freshman season, going 5-10 for 90 yards and a touchdown with 16 carries for 73 yards.

FPI expects the Wildcats to be perfect as they head into their second bye.

Game 8 at Kansas: FPI gives Kansas State a 51.2% chance to win this game (8-0, 5-0 Big 12)

Rivalries are what make college football special, and FPI believes college football fans are in for a treat when K-State makes the trip to the renovated David Booth Memorial Stadium to take on Kansas.

Kansas State holds a 16-game winning streak against the Jayhawks, and FPI sees that number climbing to 17 after the contest on Oct. 25. The last two matchups in this series have been tight, being decided by a combined six points. It looks like this one will go the same way, close but ending with the Wildcats escaping out of Lawrence, Kan., with a win.

Game 9 vs Texas Tech: FPI gives Kansas State a 70.1% chance to win this game (9-0, 6-0 Big 12)

Texas Tech revamped its team in the transfer portal this offseason, but it still has the tall task of going into Bill Snyder Family Stadium and playing K-State.

This one features two of the top linebackers in the Big 12 in Kansas State's Austin Romaine and Texas Tech's Jacob Rodriguez. With two strong defenses, this could be a low-scoring affair.

Texas Tech aims to rise to the top of the Big 12, but FPI sees the Wildcats move to an impressive 9-0 before going back on the road after the bye week.

Game 10 at Oklahoma State: FPI gives Kansas State a 74.2% chance to win this game (10-0, 7-0 Big 12)

Kansas State gave Oklahoma State a 42-20 thumping in Manhattan, Kan., last season.

Kansas State has not won a game in Stillwater, Okla., since 2017, when the Wildcats won in a 45-40 shootout. Johnson will look to keep his hot streak against the Cowboys alive after going 19-31 for 259 yards, three touchdowns, and an interception while rushing for 60 yards and two touchdowns on five carries.

Game 11 at Utah: FPI gives Kansas State a 61.1% chance to win this game (11-0, 8-0 Big 12)

This is a preview of Joel Klatt's Big 12 championship game, and FPI shows the Wildcats coming out on top.

Utah put together a strong roster after last season, headlined by quarterback Devon Dampier. The Utes' first season in the Big 12 saw them go 5-7. This will be the first time these two teams have met. Kansas State has the tall task of going into Salt Lake City, Utah, but the computer shows things breaking K-State's way as they move one game closer to a perfect season.

Game 12 vs Colorado: FPI gives Kansas State a 76.8% chance to win this game (12-0, 9-0 Big 12)

The FPI does not see this matchup being as close as last season's game, which saw two lead changes in 58 seconds in the fourth quarter.

There is a changing of the guard taking place at Colorado, and the Wildcats will look to take full advantage of it and cap off their perfect season, head to the Big 12 championship game, and most likely the College Football Playoff.

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