Points of Emphasis: Louisville vs. Toledo

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - The end of the 2025 season is almost here. The Louisville football program will wrap up year three under head coach Jeff Brohm with a trip down to South Florida for the holidays, facing Toledo in the Boca Raton Bowl. Kickoff is set for December 23 at 2:00 p.m. EST.

Here are some of the more notable points of emphasis heading into Tuesday's game:

Availability Update

Even with there being roughly three weeks since the last time either team has played, neither Louisville or Toledo will be at full strength - whether that be due to injuries or opt outs.

On the Louisville side of things, we already know that star wide receiver Chris Bell and standout linebacker Antonio Watts both had surgery for respective injuries and will be out. Head coach Jeff Brohm also stated that he was hopeful that one of their top three running backs - Isaac Brown, Duke Watson and Keyjuan Brown - could return after all had to miss the UK game.

As far as opt-outs for the Cardinals, there are a couple notable ones here. Starting defensive linemen Rene Konga and Wesley Bailey, both of whom are transfers from Rutgers, have opted out for the game. There have been a handful of other transfers, but none of them involve players in Louisville's two-deep.

With Toledo, they aren't expected to be significantly shorthanded from a numbers standpoints, but the players that they won't have at their disposal are very important.

For starters, starting quarterback Tucker Gleason, a Third-Team All-MAC selection, is not expected to play after getting hurt in Toledo's regular season finale at Central Michigan. Kalieb Osborne is expected to get the start.

Additionally, the Rockets will be short three starters on defense. First-Team All-MAC safety Braden Awls, Third-Team All-MAC edge rusher Malachi Davis and Third-Team All-MAC linebacker Chris D'Appolonia have all entered the transfer portal.

Toledo Players to Watch: Junior Vandeross III (Offense) and Emmanuel McNeil-Warren (Defense)

Most fans might be willing to write Toledo off simply for the fact that they are a MAC team. However, there's a reason why they were the preseason pick to win the conference and were even generating some buzz to be the Group of Five's College Football Playoff representative: the Rockets have a lot of talent for a G5 school.

While Toledo might have to go to their backup quarterback in this game, Osborne will still have one of the best offensive players in the MAC to throw to in Junior Vandeross III. The wide receiver has a conference-best 75 receptions, amassing 947 yards and a league-best 11 touchdowns.

Vandeross isn't just putting up good numbers against MAC competition. Against Kentucky, he caught seven passes for 88 yards and a touchdowns, and had seven catches for 52 yards plus a score against Washington State.

Defensively, it's certainly going to hurt having three of your top starters on a defense that ranks second in the nation in yards allowed at 247.8 per game. However, their best player on the side of the line of scrimmage - Emmanuel McNeil-Warren - is still suiting up.

The safety collected 73 total tackles (35 solo), 5.5 for loss, two interceptions, four pass breakups and three forced fumbles during the regular season. He's just the fourth Toledo player to ever be named to three All-American teams, being named on the Second-Team by the FWAA and Sporting News, and Third-Team by the Associated Press.

Matchup to Watch: Louisville's Offensive Line vs. Toledo's Front Seven

In the game of football, while skill position players might be doing the scoring and generating the headlines, everyone knows that games are won and lost in the trenches. The Boca Raton Bowl will likely be decided by how Louisville's offensive line can fair against Toledo's front seven.

The primary reason why the Rockets have had the immense defensive success they have had is because they have made a habit of causing chaos all season long. Their. 7.4 tackles for loss per game ranks fifth in the nation, while their 2.92 sacks per game is ninth. While they won't have a handful of impact guys in the front seven, they still have a few players that can cause some havoc.

Linebacker K'Von Sherman's 85 total tackles and 14.5 for loss both lead the team. Defensive tackle Martez Poynter has 9.5 TFL and a team-best 5.5 sacks. Establishing the run and generating a clean pocket will prove to be difficult.

Louisville's abilities up front have certainly come under fire. For the season, their 1.92 sacks allowed per games ranks 76th in the FBS, while their 5.33 tackles for loss allowed ranks 67th. But to their credit, they have made meaningful progress on the offensive line as of late.

Over their first five games against FBS opponents, Louisville's offensive line gave up 10.2 pressures per game (per PFF), and the team as a whole averaged just 93.0 rushing yards per game. But in the last six games, the O-line has not only allowed just 7.2 pressures per game, but the Cards have put up 209.5 rushing yards per game.

Louisville Trend to Monitor: Turnovers Dictating the Final Outcome

Most who have played football, or even those who are big time fans, know that coaches love to preach the importance of winning the turnover battle. While Louisville's underwhelming offense has arguably been the biggest story of the season, the turnover battle has played just as big of a role.

The Cardinals have been one of the better defenses in the nation when it comes to generating turnovers, with their 19 combined interceptions and forced fumbles recovered ranking 32nd in the FBS through the end of the regular season. As you would expect, the more that they produce, the higher likelihood it is that they win.

Louisville is 6-1 when they generate at least one forced turnover, and 2-3 when they fail to produce any at all. The Cardinals' lone loss with a turnover was against Clemson, but they only had one in that game. In fact, when UofL forces at least two turnovers, they are a perfect 6-0 this season.

Toledo Trend to Monitor: Penalties Galore

As previously stated, Toledo is a much better team than they get credit for. They have a top-five statistical defense, their offense cracks the top-40 as well, and their special teams ranks No. 27 in the nation according to Pro Football Focus.

But the one massive thing holding this Toledo team back, and the primary reason they lost out on competing for the MAC and potentially earning a spot in the College Football Playoff, is that they are one of the most undisciplined teams in the nation.

Through the end of the regular season, the Rockets' 8.08 penalties per game ranked 135th in all of the FBS, behind only Georgia State's 8.6. Toledo committed at least seven penalties in all but two of their games, and committed at least 10 three times. Their upset loss to Bowling Green was due partially to the fact that Toledo was flagged for an astounding 13 penalties.

Availability Update

Toledo Players to Watch: Junior Vandeross III (Offense) and Emmanuel McNeil-Warren (Defense)

Matchup to Watch: Louisville's Offensive Line vs. Toledo's Front Seven

Louisville Trend to Monitor: Turnovers Dictating the Final Outcome

Toledo Trend to Monitor: Penalties Galore

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