4 Games on Michigan Football's 2026 Schedule That Will Determine Wolverines' Fate

If Michigan hopes to contend for the Big Ten and get to the College Football Playoff, these four games will be critical.

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After missing the College Football Playoff in each of the last two seasons, Michigan is looking to get back into the mix this season. Ironically, the Wolverines made the playoff in 2021-2023 in the four-team format, but have yet to reach the expanded playoff.

And with Michigan having one of the most daunting schedules out there, the Wolverines are going to need to take care of business in order to contend for the Big Ten and make the CFP.

Here are four games that will determine Michigan's 2026 fate.

Week 2 vs. Oklahoma

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Michigan doesn't necessarily have to win this game in order to complete its goals. Even if the Wolverines stumble for the second year in a row against Oklahoma, Michigan could still go on to win the Big Ten and make the College Football Playoff.

However, as mentioned above, the Wolverines have a very daunting schedule, and a Week 2 test against the Sooners will be a good litmus test for Michigan. This will be the Wolverines' first true test of the season and if you're a good team, you can't lose games at home.

The Sooners return John Mateer at quarterback, along with a star-studded defense. It's going to be Bryce Underwood's first true test under new offensive coordinator Jason Beck, and a win would signal good things to come, but a loss might force fans to lessen expectations.

Week 7 vs. Penn State

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Michigan will get a bye week before it welcomes Penn State to Ann Arbor in Week 7. Depending on the outcome against Oklahoma, the Wolverines could enter this game undefeated, or at worst, one or two losses.

Clearly, if Michigan suffers a loss against either Iowa or Minnesota, games before the Nittany Lions, then the Wolverines' season is already looking dire.

The Nittany Lions are a team that's expected to do big things this season under new head coach Matt Campbell. Mostly because Penn State's schedule is the weakest in the Big Ten, and the Wolverines are going to be PSU's biggest challenge.

Again, if Michigan is going to compete for a Big Ten title, and make the playoff, the Wolverines have to beat Penn State. The Nittany Lions bring in Big 12 star Rocco Becht at quarterback to run their offense, and Jay Hill's defense will have to step up the challenge.

Week 8 vs. Indiana

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One week after hosting Penn State, Michigan will welcome in the reigning national champions. The Indiana Hoosiers are going to look different this season after losing several key starters to the NFL Draft and graduation.

But as Curt Cignetti does best, he wins and forms good rosters. TCU's Josh Hoover comes to Bloomington this season, and IU went out and landed Michigan State wide receiver Nick Marsh.

This game will be extremely important for Michigan to win, especially if it has already beaten the teams it's supposed to up to this game. The Wolverines still have games against Oregon and Ohio State looming on this schedule, and a win at home against the Hoosiers would keep the Wolverines in contention.

Week 13 at Ohio State

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Obviously, I've skipped Oregon and it's pretty simple in my mind. The Wolverines, barring injuries to Oregon stars or Michigan playing unstoppable football, have a little chance to go to Eugene and win. It's already a tough place to play, and I wouldn't be shocked to see this game as the primetime contest that night on NBC.

So, if Michigan loses to Oregon, the Wolverines' next must-win game would be in Columbus against Ohio State. The only way Michigan loses to the Buckeyes and still makes the College Football Playoff is if it's undefeated or has one loss heading into the game.

If Michigan walks into Columbus at 9-2, the Wolverines would have to beat their arch-rival in order to make the CFP in Year 1 under Kyle Whittingham. After Ohio State took down Michigan a season ago, the Wolverines will hope to pay back the favor.