Michigan to the College Football Playoff in 2026?

Michigan has missed the CFP two years running after its triumphant three-peat of visits from 2021-2023. The Wolverines were nowhere near contention for the postseason in 2024, but actually - almost surprisingly, considering the bitter taste of last season - had an outside shot to make the bracket last year had they beaten the Buckeyes in Week 12. With the twelve team format here to stay for at least one more season, how might Michigan get back to the postseason in 2026?

While speculation about the 2026 College Football Playoffs might seem premature at this moment - we haven’t yet hit June, recruits and their topsy-turvy commitment sagas dominate the news, and the first AP Poll is still months in the future - why wait? Why deny ourselves the joy of deliberating who is in and who is out of the college football postseason? Why not take a stab at what Michigan must accomplish to return to the promised land? Let’s deign to hypothesize, and explore a couple probable scenarios for next season.

11 or 12 Wins

A dream campaign. Bryce Underwood takes significant strides, the two-headed monster in the running back room churns yards, the defense returns to its 2023 ways with some new, effective, direction, and - almost certainly given the gauntlet that is Michigan’s 2026 schedule - the Wolverines benefit from a high fumble recovery rate, a friendly whistle every now and again, and some injury luck.

Hiter — Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

They take down at least two of the three Big Ten giants they face, best Oklahoma in Week 2, and handle business against the rest of their in-conference opposition. Kyle Whittingham probably wins coach of the year, Bryce Underwood is again considered a future lottery selection, and the Wolverines are as safely in the playoffs as a team can be.

10 Wins

Everything from before holds true, though dialed back ever so slightly. Michigan is still resurgent, they still tally at least two signature wins, and the future is still radiantly bright.

Last season, nine Big Ten and SEC schools finished the regular season at 10-2 or better. The only team in that group to miss the playoffs was Vanderbilt, despite the loud protests of Diego Pavia, and given Michigan’s schedule, the Wolverines would surely find themselves inside the cut line of the CFP once again.

This is likely the best-case scenario for Michigan next year, and the last clear-cut CFP outcome for the Wolverines.

9 Wins

It’s all getting a little tricky now. A very strong football team could easily end up with this record with Michigan’s schedule, but so could a less convincing on-field product.

Say Michigan is the latter. They look outclassed against Indiana, Oregon, and Ohio State, squeak by against Iowa and Penn State, and catch Oklahoma at home early in the season. In that instance, the committee likely won’t hand out its first ever three loss at-large bid to the Wolverines, no matter how highly ranked the Wolverines might have been at their 6-0 peak. For fans, this season might raise more questions than answers, further confounding any easy narrative for Underwood, Whittingham, and the trajectory of the Wolverines.

Whittingham — Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

But what if Michigan is the former? Perhaps the kids in the maize and blue can’t quite overcome the best of their opposition, but they keep it close in all three losses and are clearly a strong football squad. Say they even deliver resounding wins against Oklahoma, Iowa, and Penn State, showing their marked superiority over that good, but not great, caliber of college football team.

Clearly, Michigan would be back, and the pressure would really be on the CFP committee then. In 2024, 9-3 Alabama did not make the postseason, the closest a three-loss team has been to making the field as a non-conference champ. Michigan would have a similar profile, ending up as the last team in or first team out. Either way, Michigan fans would be quite happy with such a season.

8 Wins or Fewer

Michigan misses the CFP with fewer than nine wins, but such a record does not necessarily indicate a poor season of play. In a worst case scenario next season, a young, defensively inexperienced team in a transition year as a program might lose as many as six, even seven games. That’s simply how many losable games there are on the schedule. Obviously, losing them all should sound the alarm in Ann Arbor, but a talented team a year or two away from reaching its potential could reasonably drop a handful of them without fans immediately jumping ship.

Vegas has set Michigan’s win total for the 2026 season at 8.5, with an 8-4 record deemed more likely than a 9-3 one. Though such records may seem underwhelming in the wake of the championship era at Michigan, it’s hard to overstate how harsh the 2026 schedule is and how challenging it is to overhaul a program in one year.

With nine wins or more, Michigan is knocking on the door of the CFP if not breaking it down. With eight wins or fewer, Citrus Bowl here we come. Regardless of record though, the more important trend to watch next season is player development and team cohesion. That, not strictly wins and losses, is the better indicator of where this Michigan football program is headed with Kyle Whittingham at the helm.

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