Best bet to take in the Citrus Bowl matchup between the Michigan Wolverines and the Texas Longhorns

9-3 Michigan will take on 9-3 Texas in the Cheez It Citrus Bowl this week. Both teams had good but not great regular seasons as they come into this game ranked 18th and 13th in the country. Both programs had high hopes and high expectations for this season and both ultimately fell short of those goals.

This will be a matchup of two very talented teams despite all the shake up of players between Michigan firing Sherrone Moore, early NFL Draft preparations for players on both sides, and many players also announcing their intentions to enter the transfer portal. Neither team will look much like it did in their final games of the regular season so that makes handicapping this game difficult from a betting perspective. Lets dive into what the power ratings say about these two teams entering this matchup.

Texas

My favorite set of public power ratings to reference is the KFord Ratings. Texas at this point in the season is power rated as the 14th best team in the country per the KFord Ratings with a rating of 18.0. That means that when facing the exactly average college football team on a neutral field, they would be favored by 18 points according to this set of power ratings.

Michigan

Michigan at this point in the season is power rated as the 18th best team in the country with a rating of 15.9, according to the KFord Ratings. So they would be favored against the exactly average college football team by 15.9 points on a neutral field.

Spread Analysis

To get the projected spread for this game, you simply take the Texas power rating of 18.0 and subtract the Michigan power rating of 15.9 out of it. That leaves you with a projected spread for this game, based on this set of power ratings, at a -2.1 point margin in favor of Texas.

Most public sports books however currently have this game at a -7.5 in favor of the Longhorns. There's a big gap between this set of power ratings perceived strength of each team and the current sports book numbers out there on this game. The KFord Ratings show a lot of value on the Michigan side of this and I would tend to agree with the KFord Ratings as well.

I think the public is overrating the chaos surrounding this Michigan football team and siding with the Longhorns because of all that has transpired for Michigan lately with the coaching search and everything else going on. I believe the Biff Poggi and the leaders left in the Michigan locker room will rally together and put together a solid performance for Michigan in this bowl game. I have this game projected much closer, with Texas Winning 26-23 so that means I would take Michigan to cover the +7.5 fairly comfortably based on the KFord Ratings projection of -2.1 in favor of Texas.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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