Best bet to take in the Michigan vs. Maryland game

Maryland so far this year is 4-6 overall, and 1-6 in Big Ten Conference games. In conference, they've beaten only the Wisconsin Badgers in Week 4 of the season, and have since lost to Washington, Nebraska, UCLA, Indiana, Rutgers, and Illinois. To put it plainly, this has not been a very good football team since conference play began.

Michigan on the other hand is 8-2 so far this year, with a non-conference loss at Oklahoma as well as an in-conference loss at USC. In conference play, they've beaten Nebraska, Wisconsin, Washington, Michigan State, Purdue, and Northwestern. While Michigan has been winning their conference games outside of USC, a good chunk of them have come down to the wire. Let's dive into what the power ratings say about these two teams below.

Maryland Power Ratings

According to my favorite set of public power ratings, the KFord Ratings, Maryland is currently rated at 65th in the country with a power rating of 0.4. That means that on average they would be expected to beat the exact average college football team by 0.4 points. The same set of power ratings has them at 89th nationally on offense, and 38th on defense. You might be surprised by those two metric ratings given that most people think of Maryland as an offensive team given Head Coach Mike Locksley is an offensive guy by background, but so far this year they've been far better on defense.

Michigan Power Ratings

As for Michigan, the KFord Ratings has them at a power rating of 15.5, good for 20th in the country. That means that they would be expected to beat the exact average college football team by 15.5 points. KFord has their offensive rating at 43rd in the country, and their defense at 11th in the country. None of that information should surprise Michigan fans much, as the defense has once again been the backbone of this team. The offense is much improved from last year but still has some improvement left to go if they want to accomplish all of their teams goals yet this season.

Best Bet

Given the two backgrounds of these teams, the strength of both sides should be the defenses. Michigan at 11th in the country with Maryland at 38th in the country on defense seems to suggest a lower scoring game given that both offenses are ranked 43rd and 89th nationally.

As far as the spread goes, the current line is at -14.5 in favor of Michigan. To get the projected spread according to the KFord Ratings, you need to simply subtract the Michigan power rating of 15.5 out of the 0.4 power rating of Maryland. That would put it at roughly -15.1 in favor of Michigan. Then you need to factor in home field advantage, which in this case probably won't be very significant of a home field advantage for Maryland so I would mark it down as 2 points in total. In total, that would put the projected spread for this game at -13.1 points in favor of Michigan in this one compared the the current sports book line of -14.5.

That means the KFord Ratings show some slight value on the Maryland side of this one for the overall spread in this game. I tend to agree with the KFord Ratings in this case, as I think this has the makings of another one-score game in the 4th quarter. I have predicted Michigan to win by a score of 31-23 so I would recommend the Maryland side as the best bet in this game at +14.5 points given that Michigan has had trouble putting conference opponents away so far this year. You can also read the rest of our staff predictions here for a full breakdown of each of our thoughts on this game.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Maryland Power Ratings

Michigan Power Ratings

Best Bet

— Sign up for the Michigan Daily Digest newsletter for more free coverage from Michigan Wolverines on SI —