Why Michigan Football's Projected Rocky Start in 2026 is Pure Nonsense

Michigan's 2026 schedule is a gauntlet, but this prediction misses the mark.

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Coming off a 9-4 season in 2025, Michigan is looking to get back into the College Football Playoff mix in 2026. The Wolverines had missed the playoff in back-to-back seasons, and after learning just how rocky Michigan's culture was the past couple of seasons — it's somewhat shocking the Wolverines had any success on the field.

While Michigan has appeared to hire the right coach to get the Wolverines back into national contention, there is no denying that Michigan's schedule this season is daunting. The Maize and Blue have to play the likes of Oklahoma, Penn State, Oregon, Indiana, and Ohio State this season.

When CBS Sports came out with its 2026 Big Ten record predictions, seeing Michigan listed as an 8-4 team isn't all that crazy, but seeing who the Wolverines are predicted to lose to is what made the list shocking.

Brad Crawford has Michigan beating Indiana at home, but losing to Oklahoma, Iowa, Oregon, and Ohio State.

Is a 2-2 start realistic?

If you want to say Michigan is going to lose to Oklahoma, Oregon, and Ohio State, I won't argue much. Those are toss-up games, and with the Wolverines traveling to Eugene, that's going to make for a very difficult game.

But losing to Iowa? Losing to both Oklahoma and Iowa? That seems a little far-fetched. The Hawkeyes are going to be in a similar boat as they have been in for several years. Iowa will enter the 2026 season with good defense on paper, but zero offense.

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The Hawkeyes lost their signal caller, Mark Gronowski from 2025, and will start either Hank Brown or transfer Jeremy Hecklinski. Neither has much experience and one of their first away game of the 2026 season will be in Ann Arbor.

Obviously, games aren't played on paper, and you play games for a reason, but if Michigan loses that game and starts 2-2, the Wolverines might struggle to go 8-4 this season. Even if the Wolverines lose to the Sooners in Week 2, Michigan will have three games under its belt and should be ready to take on an Iowa team that might struggle to score 10 points.

If Michigan is going to beat Indiana, 9-3 is the floor

It was interesting that Crawford predicted Michigan to lose to both Oklahoma and Iowa, but defeat what could be the most difficult team the Wolverines are going to see in Ann Arbor — Indiana. The Hoosiers are the reigning national champions and Curt Cignetti went and landed one of the top transfer QBs, Josh Hoover from TCU, to run his offense.

Hoover and the Hoosiers are going to be tough to beat, and if Michigan can defeat IU this season, it feels like 9-3 is the floor. With one of the more difficult schedules out there, 9-3 could squeeze Michigan into the College Football Playoff, and if the Wolverines are sitting at 9-2 entering that Ohio State game — the Wolverines are going to be playing for all the marbles.

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Remember, the Buckeyes haven't defeated Michigan in 'The Shoe since 2018.

All of that to say, is 8-4 realistic? Yes. With that schedule, the Wolverines could lose four games. But I just don't see a world where Michigan starts 2-2 or loses to an Iowa team that will have a hard time generating offense. And if the Wolverines beat IU, Michigan is going to have a fighter's chance to make the playoff.