Does Michigan Have a Fair Ranking Compared to Other Big Ten Teams in ESPN's FPI?

Big Ten Media Days are right around the corner, and it's the unofficial start of the college football season. News will start coming out and fall camp will then happen soon after. With all of those events taking place soon, ESPN's Football Power Index recently came out.

What is the FPI? Using 20,000 simulations, the FPI is "a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season."

For Michigan, nationally, the Wolverines are ranked No. 15 in the nation.

Overall record prediction: 7.8-4.3
Changes of winning out: 0.1%
Getting to six wins: 89.7%
Winning Big Ten: 3.8%
Making CFP: 23.2%
Making national title: 3%
Winning national title: 1.2%

How the Big Ten stacks up

Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback Julian Sayin (10) lines up during the NCAA football game against the Michigan Wolverines — USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The top three teams come as no surprise. Ohio State, Oregon, and Indiana were the three College Football Playoff teams from last season. The Hoosiers won it all, but are tasked with replacing some big production from a year ago, mainly losing Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza.

Here is how the Big Ten is ranked using the FPI.

Ohio State (1st nationally)
Oregon (4th)
Indiana (6th)
USC (13th)
Michigan (15th)
Penn State (17th)
Iowa (25th)
Washington (26th)
Nebraska (30th)
Illinois (39th)
Wisconsin (43rd)
Northwestern (60th)
Maryland (61st)
Minnesota (63rd)
UCLA (64th)
Michigan State (65th)
Rutgers (67th)
Purdue (71st)

Does Michigan's ranking make sense?

Coming off a 9-4 season, firing Sherrone Moore, and adding Kyle Whittingham as the head coach, along with two new coordinators — Michigan is actually getting some preseason love. But it's also expected.

Despite the coaching turnover, Whittingham and Co. were able to retain a large chunk of the core Michigan team. That includes five-star phenom Bryce Underwood, running back Jordan Marshall, wide receiver Andrew Marsh, and a large part of the offensive line.

Add in key pieces from the defense coming back, and adding talent from the transfer portal, like All-American edge rusher John Henry Daley, the Wolverines should be a force in 2026.

Michigan quarterback Bryce Underwood (19) runs against Central Michigan — USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

But there are a couple of holdups for Michigan's run. The Wolverines need to see development from Underwood entering his first year under Jason Beck. Underwood flashed out-of-this-world potential, but he made some head-scratching mistakes.

The coaching staff has assured the fanbase that Underwood has made the leap and if he has, Michigan's offense is going to reach new heights. And then there is the schedule.

Michigan has one of the more difficult schedules out there, playing a non-conference match with Oklahoma in the Big House. For Big Ten play, Michigan has the big three of Indiana, Oregon, and Ohio State, along with both Iowa and Penn State, who should be improved.

If Michigan reaches the College Football Playoff, it will be earned in 2026.

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