Michigan Wolverines remain idle in ESPN's FPI despite multiple top-25 losses

The Michigan Wolverines remain inside the top-15 in ESPN's FPI rankings.

Michigan quarterback Bryce Underwood (19) celebrates a touchdown against Central Michigan during the second half at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, Sept. 13, 2025. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Michigan Wolverines had their first bye week of the season this past weekend. While they rested up, they got to kick back and watch an epic weekend of college football, which included a plethora of top-25 matchups and a whole lot of upsets.

Six top-25 teams lost this week. Florida State was upset by Virginia, TCU was upset by Arizona State, Penn State lost to Oregon at home, LSU lost to Ole Miss, Georgia lost to Alabama and USC lost to Illinois. On top of that, there were a lot of near misses. Georgia Tech edged out Wake Forest, Texas A&M beat Auburn by six, Indiana and Iowa went to the wire and Mississippi State took Tennessee to overtime.

Despite a bunch of teams ahead of them losing or hardly beating unranked opponents, the Michigan Wolverines did not improve their ranking in the AP Poll. In fact, they fell a spot from No. 19 to No. 20. They also didn't make up any ground in ESPN's Football Power Index. They maintained their No. 12 ranking while teams all around them either rose or fell.

What is the FPI and how does it calculate its rankings?

The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete.

Michigan running back Justice Haynes prays before the start of the game against Central Michigan at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, Sept. 13, 2025. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Michigan's Remaining Odds

The Michigan Wolverines maintained their No. 12 ranking in the FPI. They are projected to finish with a 9-3 record and have a 2.5% chance to win the rest of their games. They are given a 10.3% chance to win the Big 10 (down from 11.9% last week) and a 35.2% chance to make the College Football Playoff (up from 32.1% last week). ESPN's FPI gives the Wolverines a 5.4% chance to make the National Championship and a 2.5% chance to win it, which are both slightly higher than they were a week ago.

Wolverines' Odds vs Wisconsin

According to ESPN's matchup predictor, which uses the FPI to predict games, the Wolverines have an 89.1% chance to beat the Wisconsin Badgers this weekend. The Badgers also had a bye this past weekend and are coming off a 27-10 loss to Maryland, so the Wolverines should be able to advance to 4-1.

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