3 Bold Predictions for Michigan State's Game vs. Toledo
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Things have not come as easily for No. 9 Michigan State in its last two games as they had earlier in the year.
The Spartans had been rolling over teams like Kentucky, North Carolina, and Iowa, but have now dropped a home game to Duke and nearly lost at Penn State on Tuesday. MSU is potentially getting a "get right" game against Toledo. After four straight games against major opponents, Michigan State will now play three lower-tier opponents before entering the full Big Ten schedule, starting with Toledo.
Here are a few bold predictions for the Spartans' game against the Rockets. Tip-off is set for 6:30 p.m. ET, and the game can be streamed on Peacock.
Single-Digit Halftime Lead for MSU
I get the feeling that there might be a sluggish start for the Spartans in this one. The Izzone is gone, they haven't gotten too much rest following their first true road game of the year that wasn't decided until the final seconds, finals week has just come and gone, and Toledo is obviously going to be looking for the stunner.
The Rockets are a good enough team to hang around for 20 minutes. They're a program that has had a lot of success during the regular season --- Toledo four-peated in the MAC from 2021 to 2024 with head coach Tod Kowalczyk, though the Rockets still haven't won a conference tournament title and an NCAA Tournament bid with him.
Big Games for Kohler, Cooper
One of the biggest weaknesses that Toledo has is its defense in the paint. According to KenPom, Toledo's nine Division I opponents have made 60.8% of their two-point field goal attempts. That ranks 352nd out of 365 teams at the time this article is being written. From all over the court, teams are shooting 49% against the Rockets, which is 347th, as well.
That means it might be a good idea to get senior bigs Jaxon Kohler and Carson Cooper involved a lot. Kohler's assignment at the four, forward Sean Craig, has the worst defensive box plus/minus among members of the Rockets' main rotation at minus-2.3.
Home Woes from Three Stop
It's weird, but Michigan State has only shot above 30% from three during one home game this year, which was the loss to Duke; an 8-for-22 day at 36.4%. For the whole season to this point, the Spartans have only made 26.4% of their tries from deep at the Breslin Center.
What makes it funnier is that they're shooting 50% away from their home arena. Perhaps the Breslin rims need to be loosened a bit?
Either way, this might be a good game for that trend to reverse. It already improved a little bit against the Blue Devils, but Toledo's three-point defense is 237th in the country.
I don't think MSU will be taking a ton of threes and ending up with 20 makes on the night, but I still think you'll see a relatively efficient night from beyond the arc.
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A 2025 graduate from Michigan State University, Cotsonika brings a wealth of experience covering the Spartans from Rivals and On3 to his role as Michigan State Spartans Beat Writer on SI. At Michigan State, he was also a member of the world-renowned Spartan marching band for two seasons.
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