Michigan State’s Bracketology Rating Shifts After Disappointing Weekend
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Michigan State's men's basketball team won't be stressing when Selection Sunday roles around next month. The No. 10-ranked Spartans will easily be in the NCAA Tournament field for a 28th straight season, extending the nation's longest postseason streak.
However, their seeding still has to be determined by how well they play the rest of the season, and Friday's loss to No. 3 Michigan was a step back, according to the most recent bracket prediction updates.
Here's where MSU stands at the beginning of February.
ESPN
Joe Lunardi and his expert predictions for ESPN have given the Spartans their toughest projected path. He has Michigan State as the No. 3 seed in the West Region, taking on No. 14 seed Wright State in a first-round matchup in Buffalo, N.Y. With a win, the Spartans would advance to take on No. 6 seed Louisville or the winner of a play-in game between No. 11 seeds Ohio State and Texas.
— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) February 3, 2026
That would make a difficult first weekend. Wright State has played Michigan State close in the Tournament before, and the reward for moving on would then be an ACC contender, a fellow Big Ten opponent, or an SEC team with a coach that's won in March. But the rest of the draw is even less of a picnic.
The No. 1 overall seed, Arizona, is the top seed in this projected West bracket. While the Spartans would not face the Wildcats until the Elite Eight, they cpould also have to go through some combination of Auburn, Gonzaga, St. John's, Iowa, and Indiana, among others.
In the ESPN projections, the Spartans are one of 11 Big Ten teams, one more than the SEC. Michigan reamins the conference's only No. 1 seed, while Illinois is now a No. 2 seed, and Purdue and Nebraska join MSU on the three line. UCLA, USC, Ohio State, Indiana, Iowa, and Wisconsin all battled their ways in as No. 8 seeds or lower.
CBS
CBS also has Michigan State as a No. 3 seed but with a conceivable easier path. Here, the Spartans are members of the South Region, taking on No. 14 seed East Tennessee State with Iowa State as the top seed. The winner of the first matchup will face either No. 6 seed Kentucky, who Michigan State has already beaten, or No.11 seeds St.Mary's or New Mexico, depending on the results of the play-in games and the Round of 64.
That's a little bit more of a favorable matchup for Michigan State as they're a much better team than both 11 seeds and already have an idea of what they can expect out of Kentucky. That doesn't mean it'll be easy. Playing teams multiple times in a season can have a negative affect in the rematch sometimes. However, the veteran attitude of this Michigan State team should still be an advantage.
Illinois is the porjected No. 2 seed and Iowa is the projected No. 7, setting up a potential all Big Ten matchup in the Sweet 16. Villanova and BYU are the other threats in the region, but overall, it looks and feels like a softer and much more manangeable draw.
CBS has 10 teams from the Big Ten in its NCAA Tournament field, with Ohio State being the only ESPN-projected team missing. Michigan is also a No. 1, according to CBS, and Illinois and Nebraska are No. 2 seeds. Purdue joins MSU as a No. 3.
So the Spartans appear to be a consensus No. 3 seed after the loss, dropping slightly from the last No. 2 seed entering last weekend. They'll likely hover around that line, with a few opportunities to rise against illinois, Purdue, and Michigan.
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-ac9f01ae65e71c7320d1c61247b2ecac.jpg "Travis Tyler")
Travis Tyler joined On SI as a writer in January 2026. He has experience contributing to FanSided’s NFL, college football, and college basketball coverage, in addition to freelance work throughout the Dallas–Fort Worth area, including high school, college, and professional sports for the Dallas Express and contributions to the College Football Dawgs, Last Word on Sports/Hockey, and The Dallas Morning News. In addition to his writing, Travis contributes video and podcasting content to Fanatics View and regularly appears as a guest analyst. He is a graduate of Michigan State University and SMU and is an avid Detroit sports fan with a deep knowledge and appreciation of sports history. Follow Travis Tyler on Twitter at @TTyler_Sports.