How Stumbles Across Big Ten Could Have Positive Impact on MSU

The schedule looks a lot more manageable this year for Michigan State than it did two weeks ago.

MSU did what it was supposed to do against Toledo and Eastern Michigan: win. It beat the Rockets 30-20 in Week 1, then dominated late against EMU in a 35-7 rout on Saturday. The Spartans were given a 32.7% shot at a bowl game before the season by ESPN's College Football Power Index. Now, those odds have shot up to 59.4%. The two wins help, but that increase is probably not because of Michigan State.

Upsets to Future Opponents

Rutgers

The Spartans handled their early-season business and won the games they were widely expected to win, but not every team in the Big Ten can say that. Oregon, Illinois, and Rutgers are three teams on Michigan State's slate that have all lost games they were expected to win.

Rutgers' loss to UMass is the worst one. The Scarlet Knights are hardly considered a Big Ten powerhouse, but the Minutemen have been considered to be the worst team in the entire FBS for some time. UMass went 0-12 last year. It played Iowa and Missouri in 2025 and got outscored 89-13 in those games. ESPN's SP+ metric considered Michigan Division II schools Ferris State and Grand Valley State to be better at football than UMass before that game.

Massachusetts Minutemen at Rutgers Scarlet Knights football in Piscataway, New Jersey on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Rutgers #KJ Duff scores the first touchdown of the season for Rutgers. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

What made it worse was that the game wasn't even close. After scoring no more than 21 points against any FBS opponent last year, the Minutemen dropped 37 points against Rutgers. The 21 points UMass allowed would also have been tied for the fewest points allowed by the Minutemen in the entire 2025 season, too.

Rutgers is now 0-2 on the season after losing to a Boston College team that is probably pretty bad this past Friday. Michigan State won't play RU until the regular-season finale, but that should certainly be a game where the Spartans are the favorite.

Sep 12, 2026; Stillwater, Oklahoma, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Dante Moore (5) throws a pass during the first quarter against the Oklahoma State Cowboys at Boone Pickens Stadium. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Oregon

MSU will definitely be an underdog when it plays Oregon in the penultimate game of the regular season, but it's very fair to say the Ducks have looked pretty beatable so far this year. They tumbled all the way down 15 spots to 21st in the rankings after they lost on the road to Oklahoma State on Saturday. The upset feels even more significant because the Cowboys opened up their season with a loss to Tulsa.

If Oklahoma State, another team with a first-year coach, can beat Oregon, why can't Michigan State? Oregon also didn't entirely look like a national title contender the week before against Boise State. The Ducks were down 17-7 late in the first half and were tied at 24 with eight minutes to go in the game.

Sep 12, 2026; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini quarterback Katin Houser (4) passes the ball as Duke Blue Devils defensive end Kobe Smith (18) pursues during the second half at Gies Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Illinois

Illinois' 31-27 loss to Duke on Saturday doesn't fall into the same category as Rutgers' loss to UMass or Oregon's loss to Oklahoma State, but it is a bit of an upset. Duke is the reigning ACC champion, but it's a much different team this year. Starting quarterback Darian Mensah and 1,000-yard receiver Cooper Bartake both left for Miami (FL) in the portal.

Illinois' season-opening performance against UAB was also a little shaky. It was set to go to the halftime locker room there with just a one-point lead before completing a Hail Mary. Michigan State faces Illinois on Oct. 10 during its homecoming game.

Near-Misses or Underwhelming Performances

Michigan wide receiver JJ Buchanan (6) catches for a touchdown against Western Michigan to win the game 13-12 as time expires during the second half at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, Sept. 5, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Michigan

Now, Michigan largely erased Week 1's events with its statement win over Oklahoma on Saturday, returning to No. 19 in the rankings on Sunday. Controversy about the Western Michigan game aside, the Wolverines lined up against a MAC team (even if it's a good one) and won by one point. That alone shows some vulnerability.

Through all the noise, two things stand out: Michigan's defense is very, very good, but its offense is definitely underperforming. The seven-point difference against Oklahoma is largely because an interception set UM's offense up at the Sooners' six-yard line during the fourth quarter.

Sep 6, 2026; Seattle, Washington, USA; Washington Huskies quarterback Demond Williams Jr. (1) reacts against the Washington State Cougars during the second quarter at Husky Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Washington

Washington is another team that has started the season below expectations. The Huskies are 2-0, but they haven't won either game by the margins expected. UW beat Washington State 24-10 in its season opener and then beat Utah State 16-14 on Saturday.

Both of those opponents are part of the rebuilt Pac-12. ESPN's FPI ranks Washington State the second-worst team in the eight-team conference and Utah State the third-worst. USU also began its season with a 12-point loss to FCS foe Idaho State.

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