The Biggest Indicator for Michigan State's Season in Week 1

There are certain things that Big Ten teams are supposed to be able to do against teams from lesser conferences. If those things cannot be achieved during a season opener against an opponent from the MAC, that can spell trouble for the overall season.

For Michigan State in Week 1 against Western Michigan, the biggest thing for the Spartans to achieve is to be consistently getting solid gains from the ground game. Both the offensive line and the running backs include several players that will be needing to step up, but this is something that is absolutely necessary if the Spartans want to have a good shot at becoming bowl eligible this season.

Going into game week, MSU's running backs that will see the most carries are probably Brandon Tullis, Makhi Frazier and Elijah Tau-Tolliver.

How MSU ran the ball in the season opener last year

Michigan State's Kay'ron Lynch-Adams runs for a touchdown against Florida Atlantic during the second quarter on Friday, Aug. 30, 2024, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing. | Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK

One of the reasons that MSU's rushing effectiveness on Friday is so key is that the Spartans really did not run the ball very well in Week 1 of last season.

Against a Florida Atlantic team that ended up going 3-9 in the 2024 season, MSU ended up rushing for 179 yards on the ground on 4.8 yards per carry.

In a vacuum, that's an OK performance, but the stat is largely skewed by a 63-yard rushing touchdown from Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams. Take the outlier out, and MSU was only really getting 3.2 yards per rush.

What happened the rest of the year

Michigan State RB Nate Carter | Starr Portice, Michigan State Spartans on SI

Simply put, the lack of a rushing attack was one of the Spartans' biggest weaknesses during the rest of the regular season. If you can't run the ball against FAU, how can you expect to be able to get push against CFP-caliber teams like Ohio State and Indiana?

MSU finished the season ranked 110th in the FBS in rushing yards at just 115.3 yards per game. Lynch-Adams' 649 rushing yards were the second-lowest total for a leading rusher at Michigan State since 2004 (excluding 2020).

Against Indiana, MSU had net negative-36 yards rushing, the second-lowest total in program history (negative-48 vs. Alabama, Jan. 1, 2011).

Western Michigan's defense

Aug 30, 2024; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers running back Chez Mellusi (1) is tackled by Western Michigan Broncos safety Tate Hallock (3) during the third quarter at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images | Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

Another big thing is that Western Michigan's defense is, simply put, probably not very good. The Broncos allowed more than 30 points per game last fall and ranked 112th in rush defense, with their opponents averaging 192.5 yards on the ground per game.

There was a lot of roster turnover at that spot for WMU in the front seven, as well, as the Broncos lost three defensive linemen to the transfer portal that ended up at Power Four schools.

It really is a front seven the Spartans should -- key word: should -- feel good about going between the tackles against.

After all, MSU is 15-2 against Western Michigan all-time and is on an active 13-game winning streak.

MSU RB Jalen Berger gains yardage against Western Michigan safety Ryan Kilburg Friday, Sept. 2, 2022, during the season opener at Spartan Stadium. Dsc 7084 | Matthew Dae Smith/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK

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