Bulldogs on the bubble, but path to NCAA Tournament remains intact

Mississippi State's lone win against Auburn was just enough to keep its postseason hopes alive ahead of the final three SEC series.

Players line up for the National Anthem as Auburn Tigers baseball takes on Mississippi State Bulldogs at Plainsman Park in Auburn, Ala. | Jake Crandall/ Advertiser / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

That was an OK weekend from Mississippi State.

The Bulldogs picked up a win in Saturday’s game against No. 10 Auburn, but lost the series to the Tigers and, frankly, it could’ve been a series win if the Bulldogs held onto a lead late in Friday’s game.

Mississippi State (25-19, 7-14 SEC) didn’t move up in the SEC standings (but didn’t fall either). Both Florida and Texas A&M are one game ahead of Mississippi State, while South Carolina is two games behind.

There has been chatter about a magic number of SEC wins to get into the tournament, but the SEC will see at least 13 teams make the NCAA Tournament. More than half of the conference is ranked and the SEC would host 8 of the 16 NCAA Regionals.

Right now, as previously explained, Mississippi State is on the bubble, but on the wrong side of it. The Bulldogs’ main competition on the bubble is Florida and Texas A&M. Let’s take a look at each team and what it faces the rest of the season.

Florida

Record: 30-16, 8-13
Remaining SEC Opponents: at South Carolina, at No. 1 Texas, vs. No. 18 Alabama

Texas A&M

Record: 24-19, 8-13
Remaining SEC Opponents: vs. No. 2 LSU, vs. Missouri, at No. 9 Georgia

Mississippi State

Record: 25-19, 7-14
Remaining SEC Series: vs. Kentucky, vs. No. 23 Ole Miss, at Missouri

Looking at each team’s remaining SEC schedule, who would you want to be needing to win 5-7 of those games?

Texas A&M likely will reach the mark since it has Missouri (0-21 in SEC games) on the schedule and, based on the Aggies’ recent play, win at least once against both LSU and Georgia.

Florida, assuming a worst-case scenario, really needs to avoid being swept by Texas to get to 12 wins without much drama. If that ends up happening, what Florida does the week before against South Carolina will be much more impactful on its postseason fate.

Mississippi State, though, has a realistic chance at winning six of their final nine games. Missouri is three wins (or at least should be and if it’s not, the Bulldogs deserve what they get) and it’s not crazy to think the Bulldogs can muster up three wins in six games against Kentucky and Ole Miss.

The Bulldogs’ next SEC series against Kentucky actually provides them with a golden opportunity. As you can see in the SEC standings below, the Wildcats are at 10-11 in SEC games. A Mississippi State sweep would see the two teams tied in the SEC standings and, pending outcomes of other series, put the Bulldogs ahead of Florida and Texas A&M in the standings.

So, that’s where the Bulldogs sit as we head into the final three weeks of the regular season. Six SEC wins (plus winning both midweek games) and the Bulldogs should find themselves in the field of 64. Let’s see what happens.

Current SEC Standings

1. Texas (19-2)
2. Arkansas (14-7)
3. LSU (14-7)
4. Tennessee (13-8)
5. Ole Miss (12-9)
6. Vanderbilt (12-9)
7. Alabama (12-9)
8. Georgia (12-9)
9. Auburn (11-10)
10. Oklahoma (11-10)
11. Kentucky (10-11)
12. Florida (8-13)
13. Texas A&M (8-13)
14. Mississippi State (7-14)
15. South Carolina (5-16)
16. Missouri (0-21)

And, for information purposes only, here are the complete top 25 rankings released Monday morning:

D1 Baseball Top 25 Rankings

1. Texas (37-5)
2. LSU (36-9)
3. Clemson (36-10)
4. North Carolina (33-10)
5. Florida State (31-9)
6. Oregon (30-12)
7. Oregon State (32-10)
8. UC Irvine (32-9)
9. Auburn (30-14)
10. Arkansas (37-9)
11. Tennessee (35-9)
12. NC State (30-12)
13. UCLA (32-11)
14. Vanderbilt (31-12)
15. West Virginia (37-5)
16. Louisville (30-13)
17. Alabama (35-10)
18. Coastal Carolina (33-11)
19. Troy (31-13)
20. Oklahoma (30-13)
21. Southern Miss (31-13)
22. Ole Miss (31-13)
23. Arizona (30-13)
24. Kansas (35-10)

Baseball America Top 25 Rankings

1. Texas (37-5)
2. LSU (36-9)
3. North Carolina (33-10)
4. Georgia (35-11)
5. Auburn (30-14)
6. Clemson (36-10)
7. Tennessee (35-9)
8. West Virginia (37-5)
9. UC Irvine (32-9)
10. Arkansas (37-9)
11. Coastal Carolina (33-11)
12. Oregon (30-12)
13. Ole Miss (31-13)
14. Vanderbilt (31-13)
15. Troy (31-13)
16. Oregon State (32-10)
17. Louisville (30-13)
18. NC State (30-12)
19. Florida State (31-9)
20. UCLA (32-11)
21. Oklahoma (30-13)
22. TCU (31-13)
23. Alabama (35-10)
24. Kansas (35-10)
25. Dallas Baptist (30-13)