Mississippi State Baseball: How Much Did Officiating Truly Impact Game 2 Loss Against Florida?

The Diamond Dawgs fell victim to tough officiating late in Saturday's game against Florida, but how much of the loss came at the expense of the home plate umpire?

Mississippi State dropped Saturday night's do-or-die Game 2 against Florida by a score of 9-3.

The Diamond Dawgs had a rough night at the plate. Overall, the team batted 8-for-33 with two RBI, three runs scored and 10 strikeouts. MSU had a stretch of three innings in which the first two batters reached base with no outs. Out of those six runners, only one was able to score. 

Things went well on the mound up until the ninth inning. Starting pitcher Preston Johnson gave up just three runs on six hits with five batters walked and seven strikeouts. Pico Kohn had one of the best outings of his career, pitching two complete innings and giving up no runs with two strikeouts. KC Hunt ultimately picked up the loss for the Diamond Dawgs after giving up six runs on five hits with four batters walked and two strikeouts.

Mississippi State lost because of its own mistakes, but there was one key factor that certainly didn't help: officiating. Home plate umpire Mark Winters had a constantly-changing strike zone throughout the night, especially in the later innings. The fans vocalized their displeasure during and after the game, blaming the umpire for the loss. With that being said, how much did Winters' calls impact the outcome of the game?

Calls were inconsistent from the start of the game, but the teams kept the game close. In fact, the missed calls didn't make as much of an impact until the eighth and ninth innings, when the game was tied at three runs apiece. 

There were multiple strikes outside of the zone that were called against Mississippi State, but the worse came against Aaron Downs. In the bottom of the eighth inning, Downs was charged with a strike that was at his chest and completely out of the strike zone to make the count 0-2. He ultimately struck out swinging. There's no guarantee that Downs would have done anything in the at-bat, but the freshman was put in a tough situation with an unfavorable pitch count. 

Mississippi State suffered the most in the top of the ninth inning. Hunt gave up a single and recorded a strikeout, but that's when the wheels fell off. He gave up two doubles and a three-run home run to end the game in a sequence that came after multiple strikes were not called.

Missed calls don't directly impact the number of hits and runs, so how exactly did they hurt the Diamond Dawgs' pitching and defense? Obviously, any missed strike three calls prevented an out from being recorded for the Bulldogs, but it goes much further than that. 

The impact that missed calls can have on a pitcher is huge. It throws off the entire rhythm and forces the pitcher to try and change things up-- that in itself rarely fixes things, either. 

Was KC Hunt squeezed in the zone?

 At times, yes. But ultimately, it's up to him and the defense to pull through. Winters alone didn't score six runs, the Florida batters did. Winters may have let some questionable walks reach base, but he never took a swing at a pitch. Each of Florida's three hits came on two pitches or less, so it's not like there were any missed strike three calls that gave them an extra opportunity to put the ball in play. 

At least one run would likely have scored without a third out being recorded based on how often the Gators were getting extra-base hits. The offense didn't put up any runs in the bottom of the ninth, so Florida would have won no matter the run differential.  

There's no doubt about it: Winters was one of the most inconsistent home plate umpires the team has faced this season. However, it was up to the Diamond Dawgs to capitalize on big moments early in the game and put up a fight at the end, and that didn't happen.