A quick dive into MSU's ranking in Baseball America's "Never Too Early" Top 25

Is it too high, too low or just about right?

If you missed it on Monday, Baseball America released its "Never Too Early" projected Top 25 for the beginning of the 2021 college baseball season. Mississippi State came in at No. 15. You can view the full list by CLICKING HERE.

It'll be months before we ever really know the answer to this question, but is as we sit here today in mid-May, given what we know about next year's Bulldogs, does that ranking seem too high, too low or just about right? Obviously one of those scenarios will eventually be the case, but for now, let's dig in to why each of those three situations could end up being true.

If No. 15 is too high...

It probably means a lot goes wrong for Mississippi State over the next few weeks. Here's where things currently stand. Second baseman Justin Foscue and shortstop Jordan Westburg are likely to be picked early in the upcoming MLB Draft. Despite pitcher J.T. Ginn's elbow surgery, he too might be a high selection. Baseball America in fact projects Ginn to go ahead and join Foscue and Westburg in professional baseball. 

But what if State loses more than just those three? That's where a No. 15 ranking heading into next year starts to look optimistic. Let's play out a scenario where one team (and all it takes is one) loves Tanner Allen. They take him in the draft, pay him a lot of money and Allen goes pro along with Foscue and Westburg. Just like that, Mississippi State loses its 2-4 hitters in its lineup. 

You could make it tougher on the Bulldogs than that even. What if Rowdey Jordan and Allen both got picked up? Or Hatcher and Allen. Or any combination you want to make of Jordan, Allen and Hatcher. Go ahead and let signees Austin Hendrick and Blaze Jordan get drafted and signed in this instance too, taking away some possible thump that could replace the departing guys. You get the picture. Suddenly, there would be gaping holes in the Bulldog batting order. 

Baseball Amerca doesn't project Allen, Jordan or Hatcher to go pro following the draft. But if somehow one or more of them do, along with Hendrick and Blaze Jordan, No. 15 in the country is probably too high at the outset of the 2021 season for the Dogs.

If No. 15 is too low...

Well then maybe a dream scenario unfolds soon where a ton of names are on the 2021 roster that aren't currently likely to be there. Unlike the above scenario, lets play it out the other way. What if Foscue or Westburg or Ginn (or all three) aren't happy with how the draft plays out or the bonus they're offered. Let's remember, those guys lose nothing by coming back to Mississippi State. The NCAA has granted all 2020 spring sport athletes an extra year of eligibility, so Foscue, Westburg and Ginn could all come back to MSU as underclassmen, then head into the 2021 MLB Draft still with the negotiating leverage they have right now.

Oh yeah, then there are the signees too. What if Hendrick or Blaze Jordan or both show up in Starkville? I mean we're talking pie in the sky here, but imagine a roster that still has Foscue and/or Westburg and Allen and Rowdey Jordan and Josh Hatcher and Blaze Jordan and Austin Hendrick. Then imagine a recovered Ginn contributing somewhere on the pitching staff alongside names like Christian MacLeod, Will Bednar and Landon Sims. 

Yeah, if something close to that happens, now you're talking about a Mississippi State team that could go into next year at Top 5 in the country, maybe even flirting with No. 1. Don't go betting on this scenario to play out. It's sure interesting to imagine though.

If No. 15 is just right...

Well, not to be too boring, but this means pretty much everything expected to happen over the next few weeks happens. It means Foscue, Westburg and maybe Ginn all begin professional careers. It means Hendrick probably never shows up in Starkville. It means that group of juniors – Rowdey Jordan, Allen and Hatcher – are all still wearing maroon and white.

If that's the picture that is painted going into next season, No. 15 in the country sure seems to be a fair preseason assessment. There'd be just enough talent and experience to think MSU could be better, but just enough doubt with departures of Foscue, Westburg and possibly Ginn to think State could struggle a touch.

Here's the bottom line with all of this. A return to Dudy Noble to see exactly how things play out in 2021 can't come soon enough.

So what do you think? No. 15 in the country too high, too low or just right? Join the Cowbell Corner community now and give your thoughts.

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