Are the Gators for Real? Florida vs. Mississippi State Game Preview

Florida vs Mississippi State: College Basketball Game Preview

Is Florida that good? Are the Gators for real?

They got whacked by 20 against Tennessee ten days ago, but the O cranked it up against Vanderbilt, and then came one of the biggest moments of the 2024-2025 college basketball season with a 90-81 win at Auburn on Saturday.

This is a top five overall team that's good enough to win the SEC Championship and make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament, but it has to get past a Mississippi State team that got the win it absolutely needed to have.

The Bulldogs were struggling, but they hung on to beat Georgia 76-75 on the road on Saturday. They're fine in the NCAA Tournament picture, and they're good enough to be considered in all the top 25 rankings - or close - but they could really, really use a massive win to make a statement.

With a trip to Ole Miss up next followed up by a date with Texas A&M, Mississippi State might not be able to afford a loss.

Florida vs Mississippi State: How To Watch

Date: Tuesday, February 11, 2025
Game Time: 7:00 pm ET
How To Watch: ESPN2
Venue: Humphrey Coliseum, Starkville, MS
Teams: Mississippi State (17-6), Florida (20-3)
Fiu Bluesky

Why Florida Will Win

Mississippi State hasn't had an easy win in a month, and that's partly because it's having a nightmare of a time putting games away.

Rebounds were an issue in some of this run of eight games going 3-8, overall defense was a problem in some of the losses, and against Georgia the inability to hit a free throw made that far closer than it should've been.

Florida lost in a wild shootout at Kentucky and in a defensive struggle at Tennessee, but for the most part it's been solid on the road all year long. It's a versatile team that figures it out on the fly, but for the most part it's at its best when getting on the move.

The Gator D from three is dominant, but it's the ability to own the boards on both ends that takes over games. Again, Mississippi State hasn't been a rock on the defensive glass over the last month - but it's been a bit better lately - and it isn't always great at keeping up the pace in firefights.

The loss to Alabama the prime example. So ...

Why Mississippi State Will Win

Mississippi State has to force a ton of takeaways.

The Bulldogs can run, but to hammer this home, they don't want to make this a track meet. They can keep up in slower-pace sets, but they're awful at guarding the three.

What they can do, though, is force mistakes. They're 9-1 when forcing 14 turnovers or more, and that one loss was the close call against Alabama.

The Bulldogs have to keep on attacking the rim. If it's possible to keep this at a moderate pace - they don't want to bog down in a half-court fight, just like they don't want to go at warp speed. But when they get the turnovers that will come, they want to get to the free throw line.

They're far, far better than they showed against Georgia when getting a chance in a free throw battle, and Florida is 3-2 when allowing 24 attempts or more.

Florida vs Mississippi State: Who Will Win?

The Hump will be hyped, the Bulldogs will respond early with a good run, but Florida will start hitting its threes to stick around. And then there's the rebounding issue.

Mississippi State really is okay on the boards, but it's had too many problems with its consistency on the defensive glass. Florida is third in the nation in rebounds, fifth in the nation in three point defense, and that will be enough.

The Gators will get the rebound and the D on three in key situations that Mississippi State won't.

Florida vs Mississippi State Prediction

Florida 84, Mississippi State 78