Mississippi State vs Arkansas Preview: Can the Bulldogs Finally Build Momentum?

Mississippi State vs Arkansas Preview

There's no margin for error here for either side.

Arkansas is about as bubbly as NCAA Tournament teams get. It kicked it up a notch at the right time winning three of its last four games, but a blowout loss at South Carolina was a gut punch to the chances.

At the moment it's likely in, but if it loses to Mississippi State here and flames out right away in the SEC Tournament, that might be it.

Mississippi State has been in for a while. A two-game run in the middle of February with wins over Ole Miss and Texas A&M sealed a spot, but it lost three of its last four since then and has been a painfully inconsistent 4-6 over the last ten games.

There's a shot at a 6 seed, possibly a 5 depending on what the team does in the SEC Tournament. But no matter where it lands, it's well past time the Bulldogs stop playing like a sure-thing first weekend NCAA Tournament flame-out.

Mississippi State vs Arkansas: How to Watch

Date: March 8, 2025
Venue: Bud Walton Arena, Fayetteville, AR
TV: SEC Network
Records: Mississippi State (20-10), Arkansas (18-12)

Why Mississippi State Will Win

For all of the good things Arkansas is doing lately, it's not a big team from three.

It wins on defense, getting the boards on D, and forcing mistakes, but it's not the time of high-powered offensive attack that will hit 12 threes. The Hogs have hit double-digts threes just five times all year, and once in SEC play hitting 13 against Kentucky.

Mississippi State's defense is having a major problem against anyone who can hit from the outside. the team is 2-10 when allowing ten or more threes, and 18-0 when allowing fewer. Keep the score low, make this a grind, and ...

Why Arkansas Will Win

It's not like the Hogs can't score.

They might not be jacking up threes at a blistering pace like an Alabama or Kentucky, but they've been hot lately scoring 86 or more in three of their last four games - all wins. They're working the ball around extremely well and are great on the move.

Arkansas is 10-0 when coming up with 16 or more assists. Mississippi State is 1-7 when giving up that many assists or more.

The Hogs have to be crisp with their passes, they have to attack the rim, and ...

Arkansas vs Mississippi State Prediction

Arkansas has to crank up the pace.

Mississippi State has zero ability to play to its strengths. It's far, far better in lower-scoring grinding games. It loves to get on the move and play with pace, though, and that doesn't work - it buckles in painful fashion when it's winning time.

Mississippi State is 0-8 on the year when allowing 87 points or more and 2-9 when giving up 80 or more. But the team is way overdue for a strong defensive performance.

It's a must-win game for Arkansas, it's Senior Day, the crowd will be jacked, and this might be one of those cases when a change of scenery does this Mississippi State a whole lot of good.

Prediction: Mississippi State 79, Arkansas 75