ESPN FPI prediction for Saturday's game closer than you might expect

The Bulldogs moved up a couple of spots in ESPN's Football Power Index after beating Southern Miss, which did have an impact this weekend's game.

Mississippi State Bulldogs running back Fluff Bothwell (24) runs the ball against Southern Miss Golden Eagles safety Josh Battle (24) during the second quarter at M.M. Roberts Stadium in Hattiesburg, Miss., on Aug. 30, 2025. | Matt Bush/Special to Clarion Ledger / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Late in the first half a familiar sense of dread began to fill the air.

Southern Miss had just tied the game at 10-10 and things were looking bleak for the Bulldogs, especially on offense. Mistakes and penalties had cost the Bulldogs plenty already.

However, ESPN Analytics wasn’t as concerned.

Based on the game’s win probability, when the Golden Eagles tied the game at 10-10, their win probability rose to 33.9 percent. It was the highest they would get.

ICYMI: $15 million or not, Bulldogs’ defense already paying dividends

Mississippi State ended Southern Miss’s drive and drove downfield to kick a last-second field goal (after a Kamario Taylor touchdown was called back for a holding penalty at the goal line), then came out of halftime, scored 21 points and returned home to Starkville 1-0 for the ninth consecutive season.

Analytics aren’t the end-all-be-all, but they are helpful tools in covering sports. It’s an emotion-less way of looking at sports, which is something humans generally struggle with.

ESPN Analytics won’t consider things like Mississippi State spending $9 million to make one of the toughest places to play even tougher.

So, when looking at ESPN’s FPI prediction for Saturday’s game between No. 12 Arizona State and Mississippi State, there’s more hope for an upset than you might think.

Arizona State Sun Devils quarterback Sam Leavitt (10) is tackled by Northern Arizona Lumberjacks defense during a football game at Mountain America Stadium in Tempe on Aug. 30, 2025. | Cheryl Evans/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Game 2: Arizona State at Mississippi State

54.3% ASU, 45.7% MSST

That’s the closest, currently, Mississippi State is to being predicted to win a game against a Power 4 team (see below for the others).

Seeing that number actually makes me think there is some weight giving favorably to home teams, but still a difference of less than 10 percentage points between the Bulldogs and Sun Devils is great news for the fans at Davis Wade Stadium this weekend.

Here are the FPI predictions for the remainder of Mississippi State's season:

Game 3: Alcorn State at Mississippi State

N/A; FCS schools are not included in the FPI rankings.

Game 4: Northern Illinois at Mississippi State

85.1% MSST, 14.9% NIU

Game 5: Tennessee at Mississippi State

79.8% TENN, 20.2% MSST

Game 6: Mississippi State at Texas A&M

82.5% TXAM, 17.5% MSST

Game 7: Mississippi State at Florida

81.0% FLA, 19.0% MSST

Game 8: Texas at Mississippi State

88.3% TEX, 11.7% MSST

Game 9: Mississippi State at Arkansas

69.9% ARK, 30.1% MSST

Game 10: Georgia at Mississippi State

88.3% UGA, 11.7% MSST

Game 11: Mississippi state at Missouri

78.4% MIZ, 21.6% MSST

Game 12: Ole Miss at Mississippi State

85.4% MISS, 14.6% MSST