How Mississippi State's loss impact its chances of going to a bowl game

After winning their first SEC game in two years, the Bulldogs' odds were almost at 60 percent but have fallen below 50 percent now.

Mississippi State Bulldogs head coach Jeff Lebby looks on before the game against the Georgia Bulldogs at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. | Wesley Hale-Imagn Images

Saturday was not a good day for Mississippi State.

Not only did Georgia just dominate Mississippi State on its home field with SEC Nation and Barstool Sports’ kickoff shows in attendance, its archrival’s coach was taking shots at halftime of his own game, the Bulldogs’ starting quarterback and safety might be seriously injured, another safety will have to miss the first half of next week’s game and the student section was halfway empty about two minutes into the second half.

“I'm pissed off and disappointed because our people showed up,” Mississippi State coach Jeff Lebby said. “I cannot be more appreciative for what our stadium looked like today. What the town and the community have done to create this energy and this buzz for us. That is one of the most frustrating pieces of it for me, for us to go play the way we played today. Man, we picked a bad time not to be at our best.”

There’s also the result of another SEC game that has to hurt. Kentucky beat Florida 38-7 and it wasn’t even as close as the final score would indicate.

That one stings because the Gators beat Mississippi State earlier this season. If the Bulldogs don’t win either of their last two games, the loss to Florida will be looked at as the biggest missed opportunity of the season.

Mississippi State’s odds of reaching bowl eligibility took a hit after the loss to Georgia. It was at 56.3 percent before Saturday. Now, it’s at 43.3 percent.

“We have a lot left in front of us,” Lebby said. “We've got this incredible opportunity as we go on the road next week. And I want to see no pity party. I don't want to see anybody feeling sorry for themselves. I want to see guys with great toughness, great edge, being pissed off about responding the right way and being able to go get in a fight and go win next Saturday. That's the expectation.”

It won’t be easy. Mississippi State is the underdog in each of its final two games against No. 6 Ole Miss and No. 19 Missouri (who will likely fall outside of the top 25 in the updated rankings later Sunday).

Here are the win probabilities for Mississippi State in each of its final two games, according to ESPN’s matchup predictor (last week’s percentages in parentheses):

• At Missouri: 25.3 percent (22.1)
• Ole Miss: 24.3 percent (26.1)

That’s not good odds and neither are these:

Odds, Spread and Totals

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

Mississippi State: +5.5 (-110)
Missouri: -5.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Mississippi State: +172
Missouri: -210

Total

Over: 51.5 (-110)
Under: 51.5 (-110)