How Mississippi State's win improved its chances of going to a bowl game

Before Saturday's game against Arkansas, the Bulldogs chances at reaching six wins was less than 30 percent. It's significantly higher now.

Mississippi State Bulldogs wide receiver Anthony Evans III (3) scores a touchdown during the third quarter against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium. Bulldogs won 38-35. | Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

Saturday against Arkansas was a must-win game for Mississippi State.

Not only to pacify a fanbase that was readying its pitchforks, but for themselves. You can see how big of a win the 38-35 comeback win against Arkansas was for the players and coaches in the post-game celebration photos and videos.

The post-game locker room looked like a fun party.

ICYMI: 10 random thoughts after Mississippi State's comeback win against Arkansas

“The fun is in the winning,” Mississippi State coach Jeff Lebby said. “We do what we do year-round for so few opportunities on huge Saturdays where it's incredibly important to find ways to go win. Being able to come on the road, play the way we did at times which was far from clean, and then play the way we played late to give us a chance to win the game is special.”

But the win also kept the Bulldogs’ hopes of winning six games and going to a bowl game alive.

Last week, after a second-straight heart-breaking loss, Mississippi State’s chances of winning six games to become bowl eligible fell to 29.5 percent. Arkansas was the Bulldogs’ best chance at winning one game and they took advantage.

Now, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Bulldogs have a 56.3 percent chance of getting to six wins and going to a bowl game.

Mississippi State still needs one more win, though, and it will have to come against a team ranked in the top 25.

The Bulldogs have the second-hardest remaining schedule in the nation with games left against No. 5 Georgia, No. 7 Ole Miss and No. 19 Missouri.

Here are the win probabilities for Mississippi State in each of its final three games, according to ESPN’s matchup predictor (last week’s percentages in parentheses):

• No. 5 Georgia: 21.3 percent (18.4)
• at No. 15 Missouri: 23.9 percent (22.1)
• No. 7 Ole Miss: 27.2 percent (26.1)

Those percentages seem fairly right, but it feels like Mississippi State has a better chance at beating Georgia than Missouri considering the Tiger’s SEC-best rushing attack. (Arkansas ran for 239 yards, so, yes, run defense is still a problem.)

Mississippi State will face the other SEC’s other Bulldogs next in Starkville. Here are the opening odds for that game:

Odds, Spread and Totals

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

Georgia: -7.5 (-104)
Mississippi State: +7.5 (-118)

Moneyline

Georgia: -280
Mississippi State: +225

Total

Over: 57.5 (-110)
Under: 57.5 (-110)