Mississippi State starts 1-0, but concerns remain

Mississippi State’s season opener showed promise in the run game and defense, but penalties and SEC challenges make a bowl trip unlikely.

Mississippi State Bulldogs head coach Jeff Lebby talks into his headset against the Southern Miss Golden Eagles during the first quarter at M.M. Roberts Stadium in Hattiesburg, Miss., on Aug. 30, 2025. | Matt Bush/Special to Clarion Ledger / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Mississippi State did what it needed to do to start 1-0 for the ninth consecutive season, beating Southern Miss 34-17.

There are things to like about what we saw from the Bulldogs (e.g., the running backs) and there were things we hope to never see again (e.g., 14 penalties), all of which we’ll dive into at some point this week.

But let’s look at the big picture and answer this question: Does Saturday’s game warrant a change to my season prediction?

Yesterday was the first time we got to see Mississippi State and its 65 new players on a field run plays as a full team. We didn’t see any team drills or scrimmages during the preseason. The depth chart had more “or’s” than a rowing team and there wasn’t much revealed in media availability sessions with coach Jeff Lebby and players.

Start Your Day with Game One Highlights ⤵️#HailState pic.twitter.com/i3RWtMRIPM

— Mississippi State Football (@HailStateFB) August 31, 2025

Making a prediction wasn’t easy and I made mine with a caveat that I might change my prediction based on what we saw Saturday.

As a reminder, my prediction was for Mississippi State to go 6-6 and go to a bowl game. Unfortunately, that prediction is going to change.

New prediction: 5-7

Wins: Southern Miss, Alcorn State, Northern Illinois, Arkansas, Ole Miss
Losses: Arizona State, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Florida, Texas, Georgia, Missouri

The one result I changed was the Tennessee game. Based on what we saw from Mississippi State and how well Tennessee looked despite its offseason QB drama, I don’t think the Bulldogs will win that game.

However, that’s more to do with Tennessee looking better than I expected rather than anything Mississippi State did.

Don’t be mistaken, the Bulldogs showed they are a better team than what was on the field last season. The running backs are as good as advertised, the new wide receivers seem to fit well, the defensive secondary looked a lot better (even if they were unlucky against Southern Miss) and the defensive line looked awesome.

Throw in some other things like Kamario Taylor getting his first taste of college football and picked up a key first down, and its clear the offseason changes have had a positive impact.

But those penalties are troubling.

Mississippi State won’t beat Arizona State next week if it commits 14 penalties, nor will it beat many SEC teams.

Some of those penalties are easily fixed. The Bulldogs were flagged three times for an illegal formation. That’s a fixable mistake.

Other penalties, like the two holding calls that negated touchdowns, aren’t as easy to fix because calls like that come when a player is beaten. Tight end Cam Ball was flagged for a penalty on what would’ve been Taylor’s first collegiate touchdown on fourth-and-goal.

Instead, Ball wasn’t able to get around the outside of the edge defender, who got up field, and Ball had to hold, or else Taylor would’ve been brought down for a loss and the Bulldogs wouldn’t score any points. (In that instance, I guess, that’s a good penalty because without it the Bulldogs wouldn’t have had a field goal opportunity.)

On the other negated touchdown, Brenen Thompson took the blame for causing Anthony Evans’ holding penalty.

“I think I got to be better at taking the ball to the other side of the field and not putting him in that position,” Thompson said after the game.

That’s good of Thompson, but the fact a mistake like that happened, when combined with the others, is a sign (in this writer’s opinion) that the Bulldogs won’t go bowling in December.