What the EA College Football 26 simulation says about Mississippi State vs. NIU

Mississippi State football faced NIU in our EA College Football 26 simulation. See the results and what it could mean for Saturday.

Mississippi State Bulldogs quarterback Blake Shapen (2) and running back Fluff Bothwell (24) celebrate after a touchdown against the Alcorn State Braves during the first half at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. | Wesley Hale-Imagn Images

By nearly every stat, projection, metric, or whatever your preference is, Mississippi State is a heavy favorite to beat Northern Illinois.

Yet, there’s an underlying feeling that the Huskies can pull off the upset.

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Maybe it’s because they beat Notre Dame in front of Touchdown Jesus last season?

Maybe it’s because Mississippi State got dominated by Toledo, another MAC school, last season?

Or is it both?

It’s both.

For all the good the Bulldogs have done in building a significantly improved roster, there is an element of “prove it” to making predictions about this team.

That applies this week, too. And this week’s EA College Football 26 simulation won’t do much to stifle the upset threat.

You can scroll a little bit further to read more details, but in the simulation, Mississippi State won 17-10. But it never felt like the Huskies were going to win. (Yes, I actually watch these play out which is why I’m not changing the five minute quarters.)

If you extrapolate the simulation and just triple each team’s points total (like it was played in 15 minute quarters), you end up with a 68-40 final score.

So, remember to take your grain of salt with this simulation.

But how the first quarter of the simulation played out is almost exactly what Northern Illinois will want to do.

The Huskies received the opening kickoff and held the ball for most of the opening quarter, but had to settle for a field goal.

Mississippi State marched down the field on the next possession and, highlighted by a long pass completion to Fluff Bothwell downfield (as if we needed a reminder that this is a video game), and scored a touchdown.

After that it played out a lot like how Saturday’s real life game could play out.

Mississippi State moved the ball easily and didn’t allow the Huskies to score any points until a fourth quarter touchdown that I guarantee wouldn’t happen in real life (the computer’s pass rushing skills are atrocious when it wants to force the offense into scoring a touchdown).

Take away that garbage time touchdown, the Bulldogs win this simulation 17-3. That feels like a more accurate representation of the game.

What can we learn from this?

We can learn how far from reality this game actually is.

In the simulation, the Huskies ran more passing plays than rushing plays. That’s not going to happen Saturday.

There were some runs that did gain five or more yards in the simulation and there were runs players like Red Hibbler were making tackles for a loss.

And that’s where this game will be decided. In the simulation, if the computer runs the ball more a throws less, maybe the Huskies win.

Same can be said for the real life game. And if the Bulldogs can stop the real-life rushing attack like it did in the simulation, Mississippi State will be 4-0 in both real-life and in our season simulation.