Why Florida fans shouldn't be worried about a Mississippi State upset

The Gators are favored to beat the Bulldogs on Saturday for a number of reasons, and here are three main ones.

Florida Gators quarterback DJ Lagway (2) looks on after a game against the Texas Longhorns at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. | Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

Yesterday we explored the reasons why Florida fans should be worried about their team being upset by Mississippi State on Saturday.

Those reasons included mostly superlative reasons, but another reason is that the Gators aren’t great at the things Mississippi State is most vulnerable to.

The Gators rely more on passing (227 ypg) than running (130.2 ypg) and they have just nine sacks this season (1.5 per game). One area that Mississippi State has exceled is its passing defense that ranks fourth in the SEC and 25th in FBS.

So, why then is Florida favored at the sportsbooks, SP+, FPI, ESPN matchup predictor and every other predictive or projective metric?

There are lots of reasons and here are three of those reasons why Florida fans shouldn’t be worried Saturday.

Overall talent level

This sounds like a broken record, but here we go: Mississippi State is better than it was a year ago.

The Bulldogs’ top talent level is drastically higher with the additions of players like Brenen Thompson, Fluff Bothwell and Jahron Manning.

But the Gators’ top talent level is even higher and it’s depth is greater.

Florida had a preseason first-team All-American and eight players named to preseason All-SEC teams. Florida also had the No. 7 overall 2025 recruiting class and its starting to show with players like Dallas Wilson starting to emerge.

Some position groups between Florida and Mississippi State are fairly even (wide receiver and defensive secondary are two that come to mind; running back too when Bothwell is healthy).

However, the Gators are more talented in the trenches and how many rankings can you find that have Blake Shapen ranked above DJ Lagway?

The Swamp

The Bulldogs are no stranger to playing in loud, raucous college football stadiums considering where they play their home games and some of their SEC brethren.

But each stadium has its own unique challenges. Davis Wade Stadium has the cowbells. Neyland Stadium is huge. Death Valley is downright scary sometimes. Kyle Field has a bunch of farmers yelling.

The Swamp, officially known as Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, presents a claustrophobic stadium with a capacity of more than 90,000.

The stands are a mere 10-feet away from the sidelines and there’s no breeze in the stadium that can carry noise away.

Plus, it’s Florida where it’s capable of being sunny, hot, humid and raining all at the same time.

Rush offense

Yes, earlier I pointed out Florida is more reliant on throwing the ball rather than running it. But the Gators aren’t terrible at it.

The talent advantage Florida has should at least warrant an attempt at running the ball, either with running back Jordan Baugh or Lagway at quarterback (or both).

The Gators’ rushing attack has been effective (for the most part) at home this season. In three home games this season, Baugh has had 104, 93 and 107 rushing yards.

Furthermore, Mississippi State is 3-1 this season when holding opponents to less than 200 rushing yards and 5-5 under Jeff Lebby.

But the Bulldogs are also 1-0 this season when allowing an opponent to rush for more than 200 yards. So maybe this isn’t a very good reason?