Why Mississippi State is poised to upset Florida in The Swamp

Is Saturday a must-win game for Mississippi State?

No, but it’s about as close as the Bulldogs can get.

A loss to Florida wouldn’t be a season-ender. The Bulldogs could still reach six wins and go to a bowl, but it would require a win against a top 25 ranked team and make the Arkansas game a must-win.

And while the Gators are favored to win, they actually matchup well with Mississippi State.

In fact, the matchup is so good I’m going to predict the Bulldogs win at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. It’ll be close, though.

Here are the reasons why I’m predicting a Mississippi State win:

Florida passing offense vs. Mississippi State passing defense

The Bulldogs rank 25th in FBS and fourth in the SEC with 171.8 passing yards allowed. They also rank 52nd in FBS and ninth in the SEC in passing yards per completion.

Through six games, the Bulldogs have allowed just one opponent to gain 200 or more passing yards and that was Tennessee (335 yards). They also have eight total interceptions including at least one in each games this season.

Florida’s offense has leant more towards passing than running. The rushing offense is averaging 120.8 yards per game and 227.3 yards per game.

Mississippi State also has one of the SEC’s best cornerbacks in Kelley Jones, who has allowed just four receptions on 17 attempts.

This is a strength vs. strength matchup and I always favor defenses in those situations. Defenses have an advantage that when it has mistake the opposing offense has to be in position to take advantage of it.

For example, on the game-winning touchdown pass against Arizona State, Brenen Thompson got behind the Sun Devils’ defense because of a mistake (either via play call or execution).

But what if Shapen doesn’t see him streaking downfield? What if Shapen had to run out of the pocket? Would Mississippi State still have won that game?

That’s why I’ll take the defense in a strength vs. strength matchup.

Florida’s strengths aren’t against Mississippi State’s weaknesses

The two biggest weaknesses the Bulldogs have are pass protection and rushing defense.

As mentioned in the previous section, the Gators average just 121 rushing yards per game. But they’ve also only recorded nine sacks this season. That sack rate is 11th best in the SEC.

ICYMI: Three reasons why Florida should be worried about Mississippi State

Mississippi State’s offensive line has allowed 16 total sacks this season, including 10 in two SEC games. Defensively, the Bulldogs’ are allowing 162.7 rushing yards per game, which ranks 15th in the SEC.

Florida should have the talent level to take advantage of those weaknesses, but haven’t shown it yet.

Preparation Time

A common trait among some of the best modern day college football coaches is the ability to use a bye week before a game to create a tailormade game plan to get a win.

Jeff Lebby has a very long way to go before being included in this group, but he can take a step towards joining it.

Mississippi State was on a bye last week, while Florida traveled to Texas A&M. Mississippi State’s coaches have had more time to focus and prepare solely on Florida.

Lebby earned his first-ever head football coach job at an SEC not because he was lucky, but because he’s a smart coach. Look at the offenses he led at Ole Miss and Oklahoma and you’ll see the intelligence.

Does anyone think Lebby hasn’t identified at least one, if not multiple plays designed for Brenen Thompson or Anthony Evans III or Jordan Mosely or Seydou Traore to beat a defender for a long touchdown?

This is an opportunity for Lebby to flex his prowess as an elite game-planner.

Third and Fourth Down Conversions

Both Mississippi State and Florida have played Texas A&M who has been great at limiting opposing offenses’ third down conversions.

The Bulldogs and Gators each had just one third conversion attempt result in a first down against the Aggies. So, that can’t be an excuse for the following stat.

Florida ranks last in third down conversions in the SEC and 126th in the nation.

Mississippi State’s defense ranks eighth in the SEC in third conversions and 51st in the nation.

“Situational football” is common term coaches use when talking about why games end up like they do. Lebby’s talked about it before this season and I’m sure other coaches have, too.

Third down is a big part of situational football because either a defense gets off the field or an offense stays on the field with a chance to score points.

If the Bulldogs can keep those statistical trends continuing, that’ll be a big reason why they win Saturday.

Motivation

I truly believe the Bulldogs will be more motivated to win than the Gators.

Florida’s road to bowl eligibility is a lot longer and more treacherous than Mississippi State’s.

While I’m not declaring this a must-win game, I expect the Bulldogs to treat it like that (even if nobody calls it a must-win game). Because there’s really only one more winnable game left for the Bulldogs that wouldn’t be a huge upset.

Final Prediction

I hate predicting final scores because there’s so much to consider and you basically have to play the game out. I’m way too indecisive to decide what I think will happen.

But I do think the Bulldogs matchup well enough against the Gators to predict a veryt close win for Mississippi State.