Mississippi State vs. Oklahoma: Key Stats and Matchup Breakdown

Mississippi State’s offense faces a tough Oklahoma defense as third downs, red zone execution and turnovers take center stage Saturday in Starkville.

Mississippi State Bulldogs coach Jeff Lebby against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville, Ark. | Nilsen Roman-DawgsonSI Images

When toe meets leather for a matchup of SEC teams on Saturday at 2:30 p.m. at Davis-Wade Stadium between 4-2 (2-2) Mississippi State and 3-3 (1-2) Oklahoma, two teams will be meeting who have shown strengths and weaknesses in different areas of their game. 

With an outside chance still possible for the College Football Playoff and opportunities to finish ranked or reach a major bowl game, major implications could lie ahead for head coach Jeff Lebby and the Bulldogs as they welcome the Sooners to town.

For head coach Brent Venables and Oklahoma, plenty of big opportunities still lie ahead, but an inept offense has averaged just under 16 points per game against Power Five competition.

Here’s how the Bulldogs and Sooners match up in key analytical categories before tomorrow’s big matchup in Starkville:  

In the Red Zone 

If quarterback John Mateer and the Sooners can get inside the red zone, they will be facing a Bulldogs defense that has struggled defending its own end zone this season. 

State is No. 116 nationally and No. 12 in the SEC in red zone defense. The Bulldogs have allowed five rushing touchdowns, nine passing touchdowns, and five field goals on opponents’ red zone possessions so far this season. 

Meanwhile, Oklahoma’s defense had proven its ability to defend the red zone. 

Defensive coordinator Todd Bates and the Sooners have only given up three rushing touchdowns, three passing touchdowns, and four field goals on opponents’ red zone possessions this season. That measure is good for No. 7 in the FBS and No. 1 in the SEC. 

State hasn’t been tremendous finishing drives, either.  The Bulldogs are tied for No. 63 in the FBS with 19 scores inside the 20-yard line. Those include five rushing touchdowns and nine passing touchdowns. 

Moving the Football and Converting on Third Down 

On offense, State has the clear edge in third down conversions. 

State is No. 28 in the nation and No. 4 in the SEC for third down conversions. The Bulldogs have converted 37 of 78 opportunities, or 47.4%. 

But when State seeks to move the chains, the ‘unstoppable force’ meets ‘immovable object’ concept could come into play. Oklahoma is ranked No. 3 overall in third down defense, only allowing opponents to advance 15 times in 66 attempts (22.7%).

The opposite is true for when the Sooners look to move the chains. Oklahoma has converted on a measly 28 for 83 attempts (33.7%). That metric ranks No. 115 in the FBS and dead last in the SEC. But Mississippi State’s third down defense hasn’t been much better. The Bulldogs are No. 93 nationally, allowing conversions on 34 of 85 attempts (40.0%).

In the Trenches

While quarterback John Mateer and Oklahoma have struggled on offense, the story has often been different for the Sooners’ defense. Todd Bates’ unit will have an excellent chance to cause disruption against the State offensive line, potentially creating opportunities to force turnovers.

State is tied No. 114 nationally in sacks allowed, giving up 16 total. The Bulldogs have given up 2.67 yards per sack and 73 total sack yards. Meanwhile, State is tied for No. 63 in the FBS for turnovers lost, giving up the football on eight total occasions. 

Both the Bulldogs and the Sooners are giving up a lot of tackles for loss, suggesting potential problems with offensive lines protection. Here, State is ranked No. 104 with 5.83 tackles per loss allowed per game, while Oklahoma is ranked No. 116 with 6.33 per game. 

Overall Categories 

State is ranked No. 23 nationally and No. 3 in the SEC with 277.8 passing yards per game. Oklahoma is No. 81 nationally and No. 13 in the SEC with 219.

For rushing offense, State is No. 36 with 176.5 yards per game. Meanwhile, Oklahoma is near the bottom nationally with 92.5 yards per game.

In terms of total offense, the Bulldogs are the clear leader. State is No. 22 with 454.3 yards per game, while the Sooners are among the worst nationally at No. 126 with 311.5 yards. 

Turnover Margin 

And let’s not forget perhaps the king of all statistics, albeit other than winning percentage, the only one that truly matters at the end of the day.

With five turnovers gained and eight turnovers lost, State sits squarely at No. 102 nationally with a turnover margin of minus-0.50 per game. 

The good news for State is that the Bulldogs’ opponent is even worse, with six turnovers gained and 14 turnovers lost. 

Extra Tidbits 

Passing yards per completion offers another measure of offensive explosiveness. Here, the Bulldogs also hold the advantage with 13.13 yards (No. 33) compared to the Sooners’ 11.43 yards (No. 91). 

Meanwhile, Oklahoma has been more disciplined when it comes to penalties. The Sooners are No. 42 with 51.17 penalty yards per game, while State is ranked No. 118 in the FBS with an average of a whopping 70.67 penalty yards per game.