Predicting NC State's Full NCAA Tournament Path: How the Wolfpack Can Become a Cinderella

RALEIGH — It's time. NC State men's basketball is back in the NCAA Tournament after a one-year hiatus and a coaching change, as Will Wade led the program back into the field of 68 teams. The Wolfpack earned a No. 11 seed in the West Region, but must begin its journey in the First Four round in Dayton, Ohio, on Tuesday against fellow 11th-seed Texas.

The path won't be easy, but Wade and the Pack have the DNA to make a run through the bracket if they can connect and get hot at the right time. It all starts Tuesday, but with a win, the Wolfpack will be off and running in the West Region, trying to become the latest 11-seed to march through the tournament.

The Path

Mar 22, 2025; Wichita, KS, USA; A general view of a March Madness logo at center court before the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders and the Drake Bulldogs at Intrust Bank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Nick Tre. Smith-Imagn Images | Nick Tre. Smith-Imagn Images

Round and Date	Opponent (Confirmed or Possible)
First Four - Dayton, Ohio - March 17, 2026	No. 11 Texas
Round of 64 - Portland, Ore. - March 19, 2026	No. 6 BYU
Round of 32 - Portland, Ore. - March 21, 2026	Winner of No. 3 Gonzaga vs. No. 14 Kennesaw State
Sweet 16 - San Jose, Calif.	Remaining seed from St. Louis Round of 32 matchup
Elite Eight - San Jose, Calif.	Remaining seed from upper part of West Region

First Four

The road through March Madness begins in Dayton with a rematch from the 2025 Maui Invitational, as the Texas beat the Wolfpack 102-97 on the island back in November. The Longhorns finished their season with an 18-14 record, bowing out of the SEC Tournament in the first round to Ole Miss, a team the Pack did beat in a neutral-site game.

NC State opened as a slight favorite over Texas when the matchup was announced, despite winning that shootout back in November. The Wolfpack kicked it to another gear in the middle of conference play, but struggled down the stretch. Texas suffered the same fate, entering the tournament losers of five of its last six games. It will be another hard-fought battle for Wade and the Pack.

RESULT: Pending

Will Wade and Ven-Allen Lubin — Mar 12, 2026; Charlotte, NC, USA; NC State Wolfpack head coach Will Wade with forward Ven-Allen Lubin (22) in the first half at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Round of 64

If the Wolfpack survives in Dayton, it would go on to play No. 6 seed BYU at the Moda Center in Portland in the Round of 64. NC State and the Cougars didn't have much overlap during the 2025-26 season, although they shared a few opponents in Clemson and Miami (FL.). The matchup would pit the struggling defense of the Pack against a consensus top-3 NBA Draft pick in AJ Dybantsa.

BYU finished the season with a 23-11 record, but looked far more promising for about three months. A four-game and three-game losing streak defined a slog of a conference slate, as the Cougars ended up being 9-9 in Big 12 play. BYU also lost one of its top scorers in Richie Saunders, so it won't be at full strength if it faces the Wolfpack in the Round of 64.

RESULT: Pending

Beyond the first two games

NC State's path beyond the potential first two games of the NCAA Tournament is less clear, but the West Region is loaded with talented teams. If the Wolfpack somehow made it beyond the Round of 32, it could see the Miami Hurricanes again, or possibly No. 2 seed Purdue.

This story will be updated if the Wolfpack advances beyond the Round of 64.