Nebraska's NCAA Tournament Fear Frontier

Just five regular-season games remain for Nebraska in the magical 2025-26 basketball run. For the first time in program history, the Huskers hit the top 5 in the AP Poll after winning their first 20 games of the season. A No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament was in play for Nebraska, but after losing four of the last six games, it risks facing a tougher first-round matchup.

The highest seed Nebraska has ever earned in the NCAA Tournament was a three-seed in 1991. With a strong close to the season, the Huskers could earn another three seed or even reach a two seed with a strong performance in the Big Ten Tournament. Fans in Lincoln, though, are hoping to see their men’s basketball team do something it’s never done before – win a game in the NCAA Tournament.

In the basketball analytics community, games are typically won and lost by the “four factors”: shooting, turnovers, rebounds, and free throws. Two of these are related to the Huskers’ biggest struggles this season: offensive rebounds allowed and free throws allowed.

Iowa and Purdue both set season highs in offensive rebounds in their wins against the Huskers. Illinois and Michigan got the line against Nebraska better than any other team the Huskers faced this season.

Teams towards the top right corner of this plot have what it takes to upset Nebraska in the NCAA Tournament first round. — Teams towards the top right corner of this plot have what it takes to upset Nebraska in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. | Arbitrary Analytics

Nebraska certainly won’t see a program of the caliber of Purdue, Illinois, or Michigan in the first round. Even Iowa boasts far more talent and depth than most of the mid-major programs outside of Gonzaga. That doesn’t mean there are still plenty of potential giant killers that stand in Nebraska’s way of winning its first NCAA Tournament game from the ranks of the mid-majors. The twelve biggest threats to the Huskers' hopes of winning their first NCAA Tournament are below, along with all four of their "four factors" stats.

All of the programs discussed are in the top three of the conference standings by total wins. All stats are through Feb 18, while the Bracketology standings are updated on Feb. 17.

South Florida

ESPN Bracketology: 12 seed

The Bulls rank second in both free throw attempts and in offensive rebounds across all of college basketball this season. They’ve managed to pull down 37% of all available offensive rebounds as well. South Florida is a veteran team with eight seniors on the roster. Their key player is Izaiyah Nelson, who came from Arkansas State along with head coach Bryan Hodgson last season. The 6’10 senior leads the team in points and rebounds.

The Bulls’ backcourt also contributes to pounding the glass. Josh Omojafo is South Florida’s second leading rebounder and leads the team with 6.4 trips to the line per game. Omojafo has big-game experience. His Robert Morris team had a lead over the two-seed Alabama in the 2025 NCAA Tournament late in the game. These two would create tough matchups for the Big Red. Nebraska can play its way away from South Florida, but should they meet in the 5-12 game, the Bulls would be a frequent pick in the office pools.

Effective FG%	Turnover%	OREB%	FTM/FGA
51.8	12.8	37.5	.313

High Point

ESPN Bracketology: 13 seed

High Point is the high point of college basketball this season in terms of points scored. They also lead the nation in free throws made with 568. 22% of their total points scored this season have come from the free-throw line. Like South Florida, High Point is an experienced basketball team with nine seniors on the roster. They have five players each with more free throw attempts on the season than Nebraska’s leading free throw shooter, Rienk Mast (64 attempts).

High Point has secured about 33% of available offensive rebounds. Its leading rebounders are seniors Cam’Ron Fletcher, a sixth-year player with prior stops at Kentucky, Florida State, and Xavier, and Owen Aquino, a 6’8 senior.

High Point has benefited from an easy schedule, though. Their season high for offensive rebounds came against a Division 2 squad in Pfeiffer. The best opponent they’ve faced all season has been UAB. Nebraska would need to be prepared to crash the glass against the Panthers or risk the upset.

Effective FG%	Turnover%	OREB%	FTM/FGA
57.5	11.0	33.7	.326

Kent State

ESPN Bracketology: Out

The Golden Flashes are unlikely to make the NCAA Tournament. The MAC will likely be a one-bid league with Miami (OH) winning the conference. But Rob Senderoff has won multiple MAC conference tournaments in his career, and they have already taken the Red Hawks to overtime this season.

Delrecco Gillespie is the Golden Flashes’ best player. He’s played all four seasons of his career for Kent State and leads the MAC in rebounds and the team in free throw attempts per game. Kent State does have a common opponent game with the Huskers in an early-season matchup with Purdue. The Golden Flashes lost 60-101.

Effective FG%	Turnover%	OREB%	FTM/FGA
53.3	15.6	35.8	.321

Winthrop

ESPN Bracketology: Out

Winthrop is a team that’s already exposed Nebraska’s struggles on the defensive glass this season. In their trip to Lincoln in November, they were within three points with under two minutes to play. The Huskers needed almost all of Rienk Mast’s 31 points to win the game.

Rienk Mast vs Winthrop — Can Rienk Mast find the spark he had against Winthrop as the Huskers enter March? | Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

Former Hoosier Logan Duncomb had seven offensive rebounds against the Huskers in their matchup this season. Only Purdue’s Oscar Cluff grabbed more second-chance opportunities with 10 this season against Nebraska.

The Big South is a single-bid conference, meaning just one of High Point or Winthrop will make the NCAA Tournament. Even if Winthrop wins the conference tournament for the auto bid, I’d doubt the selection committee would create a first-round rematch. The November matchup between these two squads is evidence that a top-four seed doesn’t guarantee Nebraska its first NCAA Tournament victory.

Effective FG%	Turnover%	OREB%	FTM/FGA
52.7	12.7	35.8	.321

Howard

ESPN Bracketology: 16 seed

ESPN currently projects the Bison as the 68th team in the field, facing the top overall seed, Michigan. Howard currently sits atop the MEAC. Unlike some of the other teams on this list, Howard is a younger team with just three seniors. Both of their leading rebounders are backcourt players with guards Bryce Harris and Cedric Taylor.

These two players are also the Bison leaders in free throw attempts. Howard has shot the 15th most free throw attempts of any team in the country this season. The Bison are a smaller team with just one player in the rotation taller than Rienk Mast. This should be a team the Huskers would beat comfortably, but Nebraska would likely need to win out to end up matching up with Howard.

Effective FG%	Turnover%	OREB%	FTM/FGA
50.7	16.5	36.3	.319

Tennessee Martin

ESPN Bracketology: 16 seed

UT Martin is unlikely to match up with Nebraska, but it could prove to be a nightmare matchup for the Huskers. They’ve come down with nearly 40% of their available offensive rebounds, 4th best in the country.

Unlike some of the other teams on this list that have one or two players the Huskers would need to focus on, the Skyhawks do not. UT Martin’s top seven scorers (and rebounders) are all European-born players. Six of those seven are 6’5 or taller. Sam Hoiberg, Jamarques Lawrence, and Cale Jacobsen would all need to be ready to box out against the long Skyhawks.

Effective FG%	Turnover%	OREB%	FTM/FGA
50.2	18.0	39.3	.264

St. Mary’s

ESPN Bracketology: 9 seed

Gonzaga has typically headlined the West Coast Conference, but the Gaels have been a strong second-place team. No team has been more accurate from the free throw line than St. Mary’s, which has made 80.6% of its free throw attempts this season (Harvard is the only other program above 80%). Fortunately, they rank 121st in free throw attempts per game. If Nebraska sends them to the line, the Gaels would make them pay.

The Gaels have an old-school roster construction, with three centers at least 7 feet tall. For comparison, Nebraska has had just four seven-footers since Rich King and Kelly Lively graduated in 1991. Andrew McKeever leads the WCC with 9.3 rebounds per game. He and Harry Wessels average 39:48 of playing time combined per game. While this matchup doesn’t seem likely, if it did happen, Leo Curtis may have to give the Huskers some critical minutes to negate the Gaels’ size advantage. McKeever is second in the nation in offensive rebound percentage.

Effective FG%	Turnover%	OREB%	FTM/FGA
53.0	13.9	37.0	.307

California Baptist

ESPN Bracketology: 14 seed

Like High Point, the Lancers matchup seed-wise with where the Huskers may land, making this a team to keep an eye on. The program is on the verge of making its first NCAA Tournament appearance after becoming eligible for the Big Dance in 2023 (after a transition period to Division 1).

California Baptist is 6th in the country in offensive rebounds per game at 14.5, led by a front court trio of three players each 6’10 or taller. Perhaps the most exciting matchup in this game, though, would be between the two shortest players on the court. Lancers’ guard Dominique Daniels is just 5’10, but 7th in the nation in points per game. Sam Hoiberg would certainly earn his accolades for defending him.

Effective FG%	Turnover%	OREB%	FTM/FGA
47.8	14.9	38.7	.269

Tulsa

ESPN Bracketology: Out

Tulsa currently sits behind another team on this, South Florida, in the American Conference standings. But either AAC winner could give Nebraska trouble. Tulsa ranks 19th in the country in free throw rate this season, thanks in part to the nation’s 5th most accurate free throw shooter, Miles Barnstable.

Luckily for Nebraska, the Golden Hurricane is 90th in the nation in offensive rebound percentage. This is a matchup that could give Nebraska a challenge, but it should be a much better round one pairing than South Florida.

Effective FG%	Turnover%	OREB%	FTM/FGA
57.1	13.3	34.1	.319

Virginia Commonwealth

ESPN Bracketology: Next Four out

The Rams are currently on the outside looking in, but they could give the A-10 a second team in the tournament if they play well down the stretch, including a revenge game opportunity against the current A-10 leader, St. Louis. VCU is a good team down the stretch, ranking 10th in the country in free throw rate and fifth in total free throw attempts.

Lazar Djokovic is both their leading free throw shooter and rebounder. His numbers are fairly similar to Nebraska’s Reink Mast, with more of Djokovic’s damage coming from the free throw line than the three-point line. Nebraska should hope the A-10 stays a one-bid league, with St. Louis taking the conference’s spot rather than risk seeing VCU in March.

Effective FG%	Turnover%	OREB%	FTM/FGA
54.8	13.4	33.4	.338

Hawai’i

ESPN Bracketology: 13 seed

The Rainbow Warriors are in a tight battle with UC Irvine for the Big West’s automatic bid. They rank 25th in the nation in free throw rate, but just 119th in offensive rebounding rate. While this is probably the best matchup for the Huskers out of any team mentioned in this list, they still could give Nebraska problems.

Their leading scorer, free throw shooter, and rebounder is their seven-foot center, Isaac Johnson. He began his career in Oregon and has experience in the NCAA Tournament, having played three games in the dance over two seasons at Utah State. If Nebraska plays a team from the Big West, it would much rather face UC Irvine.

Effective FG%	Turnover%	OREB%	FTM/FGA
52.8	16.4	33.4	.316

McNeese

ESPN Bracketology: Out

The Cowboys are a strong rebounding team, ranking 16th in the country in offensive rebounding rate. While they do have a sizable front court with three players over 6’10, their leading rebounder is their 6’4 guard, Larry Johnson, who also leads the team in scoring. Nebraska’s back court would need to be prepared to keep Johnson off the glass in this potential matchup. A Stephen F. Austin Southland Conference champion would be a better matchup for Nebraska.

Effective FG%	Turnover%	OREB%	FTM/FGA
53.3	12.9	37.6	.285

As the Huskers’ magical season draws closer to its end, the program’s biggest hurdle comes into view – winning its first NCAA Tournament game. Nebraska is best served by maintaining its status as a top-four seed heading into March, or risk playing the more dangerous teams on this list, like St. Mary’s or South Florida.

Nebraska could still face plenty of danger from a team seeded in the teens, though. The dozen teams on this list represent the group most likely to upset Nebraska in the first round. Hopefully, some upsets come early in March, and Nebraska is more likely to get a favorable matchup on Selection Sunday.