A Showdown of Strengths in Nebraska vs USC

The 2025 season has been one in which the Huskers have challenged many of the long-standing narratives around the program.

They’ve won three one-score games, tied for the most since 2016. They recorded their first (and second) game-winning drives in the fourth quarter since 2015. They reached bowl eligibility for the first time in October since 2016. However, some challenges still remain for Nebraska. They have been winless against ranked teams since 2016. USC is ranked 23rd in the AP Poll. The Trojans are one of only two programs that the Huskers have faced multiple times and never beaten (Butte AC beat the Bugeaters in a home-and-home series in 1895 and 1896).

Comparing offense and defensive advanced metrics between the two teams. | Arbitrary Analytics

While Nebraska football has made progress in 2025, a win on Saturday would be a major step forward for the program. However, this will not be easy for the Huskers. In both traditional metrics, yards per game, and advanced metrics, EPA* per play, the Trojans boast the best offense in college football.

*EPA (Expected Points Added) assigns a “point” value for each play to distribute scoring action to each play and not just the touchdown, field goal, etc.

Dylan Raiola vs Jayden Maiava

Jayden Maiava is one of the top quarterbacks in college football. He leads the sport in both total EPA and EPA per play. No other quarterback in the country currently has a cumulative EPA over 100. If this is your second season reading my previews, you might recall another game where Nebraska faced the nation’s EPA leader. In 2024, Kurtis Rourke of Indiana led the nation in total EPA before the Nebraska game. Rourke left the game with an injury, but the Hoosiers had no trouble scoring against Nebraska. The Blackshirt pass defense has been elite, ranking 16th in EPA allowed per play, but this is the best passing offense in the country.

Running total EPA for Dylan Raiola and Jayden Maiava in 2025. | Arbitrary Analytics

Maiava’s counterpart for Nebraska has been heading in the opposite direction lately. After a quick rise in total EPA during the non-conference schedule, Dylan Raiola’s EPA has been declining in conference play. This isn’t entirely his fault. The EPA plot shown here includes sacks he has taken, for which he bears some but not all responsibility. This game could turn into a shootout. Raiola will need to make plays and avoid mistakes.

A Night to Lean on Emmett Johnson

Dylan Raiola shouldn’t have to carry the entire load in this game. USC is one of the worst teams in the nation at defending the run. Emmett Johnson is emerging as one of the best backs in the country. The coaching staff didn’t give Johnson much playing time in a game where I thought he could’ve been a star – his return to his hometown in Minnesota. Hopefully, Matt Rhule and Dana Holgorsen learned their lesson from that game. Emmett Johnson has a chance to be the fourth Husker back in the last 30 years to reach 1000 yards in just 9 games.

Top Nebraska rushers in 2025. Carry distribution shows how often a player rushed for a certain number of yards. | Arbitrary Analytics

Despite having the best passing offense in the country, the Trojans are also strong in the running game. USC ranks 23rd nationally in rushing yards per game. Their success rate when running the ball is second in the country. Both Waymond Jordan and King Miller have broken off plenty of big runs this season. Before the Nebraska game, Minnesota and Northwestern rarely broke big runs, but the Blackshirts allowed explosive runs to both teams. If Maiava struggles to throw effectively against Nebraska, the Trojans have another powerful option to attack the Cornhuskers.

Top USC rushers in 2025. Carry distribution shows how often a player rushed for a certain number of yards. | Arbitrary Analytics

Mike Ekeler’s X Factor

The Trojans’ biggest weakness coincides with one of the Huskers’ major strengths – special teams. The Trojans rank among the bottom 12 teams nationally for offensive starting field position, while Archie Wilson and the Huskers have excelled at pinning teams deep. The explosiveness of the USC offense quickly overcomes these long fields, as USC leads the nation in available yards*.

*Available yards is how many yards the offense gains as a percentage of how many yards it could gain at the start of each drive

On the other hand, Nebraska ranks in the top 10 for its average starting field position. Long kick returns and punt returns have definitely helped give the Huskers short fields. So have timely interceptions against Michigan State and Northwestern. For a Nebraska offense that sometimes struggles during games, these hidden yards will be key to Nebraska’s chances of winning.

Despite what should be a loud Husker crowd on a cold night in Lincoln, I believe the USC offense is too strong for Nebraska to beat. At times, this game might resemble the 2007 matchup in Lincoln, when the Trojans gained large yards on the ground against the Huskers. The Huskers should limit the Trojans’ big plays more than they usually do this season, but Nebraska will likely be playing from behind most of the game.

Like against Michigan, a late Huskers comeback falls short.

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