The Ups and Downs of the Matt Rhule Era at Nebraska

Three years into the Matt Rhule era is a good time to take stock of where he - and the program he took over - are at. Going into his fourth season, Rhule is 19-19 at NU. That's three more wins than his predecessor had (and Scott Frost coached nine more games than Rhule has so far). When Mike Riley was fired at the end of his third season, his record was 19-19.

A .500 record suggests an equal number of successes and setbacks. While Rhule - or any other coach - is ultimately judged by his record, I wanted to look at some of the things that have impacted his time (and record) at Nebraska.

This is not intended to be a comprehensive or definitive list. The odds are good that I'm missing something so obvious that I'll be kicking myself for weeks. You may quibble about where I've put some of these things, and I welcome that discussion.

Successes

Selling and branding the program.

Some fans may not like his methods (appearances on Pat McAfee, the House Rhules podcast, or that weird finger point thing he does in photos that is supposed to evoke the outline of the state). That's fine.

But I would hope we can all see that Matt Rhule has actively tried to raise the profile of the program to a generation of players who have little to no recollection of Nebraska winning more than nine games in a season. Seriously. Trae Taylor and the rest of the high school class of 2027 were in preschool the last time NU won 10 games in a season. Speaking of the class of 2027…

Boosting Nebraska's recruiting profile.

To win in this era of college football - especially at the level Husker fans desire - Nebraska needs elite talent. They need more (and better) talent than what currently comes out of Nebraska's high schools. Rhule and his staff have been working to get those players to Lincoln.

Nebraska is never going to build an all-star roster of portal signees. There are several schools with deeper coffers, more alumni, more donors, and/or more mega boosters than Nebraska. Trying to outspend teams is a fool's errand. NU's best path towards sustainable, long-term success is recruiting strong high school talent, keeping them, and developing them into difference makers.

I don't follow recruiting closely, but it feels like Nebraska is getting more attention from high-profile recruits than at any time since the Bill Callahan era. The 2027 class - headlined by Taylor, a five-star QB - has the potential to greatly increase the talent level. The next steps are getting them signed (and on campus) and developing them into stars.

Being bluntly honest with the media and fans.

Like any coach, Rhule can politic, filibuster, and give coach speak answers. But for the most part, I believe he tries to give honest and forthright answers to the questions he receives. We can debate if the local press corps asks hard enough questions (or follows up on loose ends), but Rhule has largely been an open book.

Progress - albeit slower than anybody wants - is there.

In 2023, Rhule's first team won five games. In 2024, they won six in the regular season (plus a bowl game). Last year, Nebraska won seven regular season games. It was not the "Year Three Bump" most fans were expecting. However, as I noted last August, no coach in the program's history had ever increased the regular season win total four years in a row.

Until Matt Rhule did it last year.

Yes, that is an admittedly obscure stat that would have been much harder to accomplish in the 33 consecutive years that Nebraska won nine (or more) games. Rhule was able to accomplish it - in part - because he followed the worst coach in NU's modern era. (And, if you saw my prediction for the season, you'll know that I have doubts on whether that run will continue.)

But progress is being made.

Not letting loyalty be an anchor.

A quick spoiler alert for the Setbacks section: several of Rhule's assistant coaching hires are going to be listed. Make no mistake, those bad hires have created serious setbacks in his rebuilding efforts. But since two things can be true at the same time, I'm giving Rhule credit for pulling the rip cord on these mistakes early.

Every Husker coach since Tom Osborne has been bitten by holding onto ineffective assistant coaches for too long. Loyalty to your buddies is an admirable trait, but in the sink-or-swim business of college football, Rhule doesn't need any dead weight pulling him under.

Setbacks

Assistant coach and coordinator hires.

To be polite, some of Rhule's assistant coaching hires did not deliver the desired results. The same holds true for some of his coordinator picks (such as Ed Foley, Marcus Satterfield, and John Butler). Rhule's apparent desire to "discover" the next Joey McGuire has resulted in some serious misses. For every Terrance Knighton and Jamar Mozee there seem to be two busts (including underqualified reaches like Bob Wager, Terry Bradden, and Garret McGuire).

To be blunt, many of Rhule's assistant hires have been dreadful flops which have delayed the rebuild. Replacing a coordinator (or two) every season has not helped. Maybe my standards are outdated, but I don't view Nebraska as a "starter job" for an inexperienced assistant. Yes, there have been some good to great hires (Tony White, Knighton, Rob Dvoracek, and Mike Ekeler to name a few) but for various reasons, many of them are no longer here.

The Raiola family.

As I wrote in the "Reasons for Optimism" piece, when the door to Nebraska landing Dylan Raiola opened in December 2023, Matt Rhule had no choice but to walk through it. At the time, the potential rewards seemed worth the risk. Dylan was one of the top quarterbacks in his class!

At the time, there was growing optimism that Uncle Donovan was going to restore the offensive line. And were fans really going to be upset if Husker legend Dominic (allegedly) acted like a controlling helicopter parent if it meant three years of a five-star QB before Dylan went to the NFL as a first-round draft pick? Plus, Nebraska would have the inside track to little brother Dayton! Let's go! GBR!

Welp.

Today, the nicest thing anybody can say about the Raiola era is that it is over. In their wake, NU is left without an established offensive identity, an underdeveloped offensive line, and under-our-breath questions on how much influence one parent / alumnus was allowed to have over the program's direction.

Other than that, it went great.

Game management.

How many times has Nebraska looked confused on the field, wasted timeouts, or made a tactical blunder that had you screaming at the TV? In the "Reality Check" piece, I detailed how Nebraska's scoring deficits in the second and third quarters of games suggest that Rhule and his staff struggle to adjust.

A year ago, I said Rhule is a great CEO Sunday through Friday, but Saturday leaves a lot of room for improvement. That's still true.

The 2025 season.

From the time Rhule was hired, we heard about Year Three. The third season was when things truly turned around and the winning started. That's what happened at Temple and Baylor! The expectation - fueled by Rhule and many others (including yours truly) - was that it would happen at Nebraska too.

After starting the 2025 season 5-1, NU was ranked No. 25 for a Friday game at Minnesota. The Huskers were outcoached, played horribly, and turned in one of their most depressing performances since the 2020 loss to the Gophers. All on a primetime, nationwide broadcast.

Two weeks later, Raiola broke his leg and was lost for the season. True freshman TJ Lateef led NU to a gritty road win at UCLA as Johnson's Heisman campaign hit full stride. Optimism soared once again.

And then the wheels fell off. 37-10 at Penn State. 40-16 to Iowa on Senior Day. 44-22 to Utah in the bowl game. In all three games, Nebraska was humbled in all three phases.

The stench of those four losses has hung over the program and fan base for the last nine months. If NU loses those games 24-21, I don't think we're having this discussion. But those were "question everything" losses that showed how far Nebraska is from whatever you consider "back" to be.

No pelts on the wall.

What is the best win of the Matt Rhule era? A demolition of a middling Wisconsin team in 2024 to clinch bowl eligibility? The Pinstripe Bowl win over Boston College? The win over a Colorado team that somehow managed to finish the season in the Top 25 after getting smoked in a bowl game? Hanging on for dear life against Cincinnati last year?

Setting aside Rhule's record against ranked teams, there aren't a ton of games for his supporters to point to as a tangible proof of concept - especially since many of the coaches and players from the 2024 CU game are gone.

Fred turned things around

Can I make a confession?

I never said it publicly, but there was a time when I was completely out on Fred Hoiberg. I liked him as a person, but he was an absolute disappointment as Nebraska's basketball coach.

It started during the 2021-22 season. In a three-month stretch, NU won two games and lost 19. They lost nailbiters, they got blown out, they blew leads, you name it. Remember - this was the year they had five-star freshman Bryce McGowens and some respectable supporting pieces (Alonzo Verge, Derrick Walker, Lat Mayan, and sophomore season Keisei Tominaga). Despite that, NU went 10-22 and 4-16 in conference.

Hoiberg came to Nebraska as one of the top coaches in the cycle. It was viewed as a can't-miss hire. But after three seasons, Hoiberg was 24-67 (.238), with an abysmal 9-50 record (.153) in conference play. The only thing that saved Hoiberg's job was Scott Frost driving the football program into a ditch. Nebraska couldn't afford the buyout on two coaches, and football will always be the priority in Lincoln.

I supported the decision, but I was disappointed that basketball would continue to flounder. In a piece I wrote in February 2022, I never typed the words "Fire Fred", but I walked right up to that line.

After the season, Hoiberg made changes. He fired assistant coaches Armon Gates and Matt Abdelmassih, his lead recruiter. Hoiberg took an active role in roster construction and had Nate Loesner take over the defense. The following season was better (16-16, 9-11 in conference). Nebrasketball started to establish an identity on both ends of the court.

The last three seasons have ended with a Tournament appearance, the College Basketball Crown title, and the program's first NCAA Tournament win (including a Sweet 16 appearance for good measure). As great as these last three seasons have been, Fred Hoiberg is still below .500 as Nebraska's head coach (112-115 overall, 52-87 in the Big Ten).

Look: I know it is probably specious to suggest that Rhule could replicate what Hoiberg did. Comparing their situations involves bushels of apples and oranges.*

*And yet, there are a lot of similarities too. Guess which coach I'm describing here:

   • He had surprising success at his first college job, ultimately parlaying it into a lucrative head coaching job in the pros. His tenure as a professional head coach was a disappointment. He was fired early in the season when it became obvious that he could not turn things around.

   • He was hired by Nebraska with much excitement and fanfare but underachieved in his first three seasons. Multiple assistant coaches from his initial staff were ineffective and ultimately fired. A ballyhooed five-star recruit and multiple promising transfer portal additions failed to meet expectations and could not get the team over the hump.

   • Any guesses if I'm talking about Matt Rhule or Fred Hoiberg?

Three beliefs

So where does all this leave us? As of today, I believe three things:

Matt Rhule deserves an opportunity to adjust and turn things around.

If we look back at the tenures of the head coaches Nebraska has had since 2010, there is one consistent thread: None of them knew how to build a winner in the Big Ten Conference. They all came in with a strong belief in their plans and bold "I'm hoping the Big Ten has to modify their system to us" comments. But Bo Pelini*, Mike Riley, and Scott Frost were all punched in the face by the B1G. Should we really be shocked that Rhule got smacked as well?

*Yes, Bo Pelini took Nebraska to a Big Ten championship game… where they got absolutely clobbered. Not counting the 2012 season, Pelini lost three Big Ten games a year by an average of 16.8 points per loss.

On top of the Big Ten transition, Rhule is also coaching in an era of unprecedented change in the game with player movement, player compensation, expanded eligibility, and more. Rhule made his mark as a "development" coach, which is a lot harder to do when every player is an unrestricted free agent every year. Also, coming from the NFL (as opposed to, say, James Madison), Rhule couldn't bring his best players with him when he took the job. But that's a separate topic.

Nebraska's previous solution to their coaches struggling in the conference has been to fire them and bring in somebody who had never been a coach in the Big Ten. That has only served to perpetuate the cycle. What if we allowed Rhule to learn from his mistakes and adjust accordingly?

I am aware that I pointed out a lack of in-game adjustments from Rhule and his staff as a concern, but I believe there's a difference in making philosophical shifts and changing your coverage when the running back goes in motion.

If it works, great! If not? Well, I guess we will have knocked a few million dollars off the buyout. Speaking of which…

Barring an epic collapse, Matt Rhule is not going to be fired this year.

The contract extension he signed last fall practically guarantees it. If Rhule is fired, his contract states he will receive 90% of his remaining base salary for the remainder of his contract term as a buyout. Based on my calculations*, that number is approximately $52.2 million at the end of 2026.

*Two things:

1) I majored in advertising, not contract law, so there's a decent chance my interpretation of Rhule's contract language is wrong.

2) I have previously seen the end of year buyout reported as high as $63 million. I believe that to be incorrect, as the numbers in that link appear to factor retention bonuses into the base salary. Again - I'm not a lawyer, but I think the number is “only” $52.2 million.

An "epic collapse" would probably mean finishing in the 2-10 range, with a loss to one (or more) of the non-conference teams. But, since Troy Dannen is the one who gave out the contract extension, he'd probably have to get fired before Rhule is let go (much like what happened with Steve Pederson (2007) and Shawn Eichorst (2017)).

I would like Rhule's vocal detractors to be honest with us - and themselves.

I don't care if Husker fans want to be vocal in their criticisms of Rhule. Go ahead and tell anybody who will listen why he'll never get it done here. Heck, in addition to the five reasons listed above, I think I could write 2,500 words on the topic. There are many valid reasons to cite.

That's why I have zero interest in hearing you complain about his podcast, or the Pat McAfee appearances, or his life outside the football offices, or the two-finger hand gesture, or the time he wore his hat backwards and asked to be called "Coach Matt." I have no doubt that those things (and more) annoy the hell out of you, but they are not the reason you're out on Rhule.

Throw out all that crap and you're left with the indisputable fact that Matt Rhule has not won enough games at Nebraska, and you do not see a realistic scenario where that changes.

Look: I'm not here to change your mind on that. Not winning (to whatever standard we think Nebraska should win at in this era of college football) is a valid reason to be out on him. The ancillary stuff - much of which is being done to boost the name recognition of a program that hasn't done squat in over a decade - is not.

Curt Cignetti is arrogant and brash and calculated (with a few dashes of petty for good measure). But he wins* so most Indiana fans are happy to sweep the stuff they don't like under the rug while they enjoy the unprecedented success.

*If you doubt either his abrasive personality traits or his ability to win games, Cignetti suggests you google him.

Back when Tom Osborne's teams "couldn't win the big one", Osborne was an emotionless coach clinging to an outdated offense. A couple of years later, Osborne won his first national championship and was suddenly an offensive genius revered for his dignified, self-effacing manner. I'm not suggesting Rhule is anywhere near the level of Cignetti, Osborne, or even Pelini. I'm simply pointing out that winning covers up a lot of flaws - real or perceived.

In terms of perception, P.J. Fleck is the best comp for Matt Rhule in college football. Fleck's detractors view him as a "used-car dealer" or "snake oil salesman" spouting faux motivational mantras over and over.

But when he wins - either outright (like he did in 2016 and 2019), or enough for the standards of Gopher fans (pretty much any year with 8-9 wins and a victory over one of their rivals) - Fleck's quirks and eccentricities are celebrated by his true believers and tolerated by the rest of their fan base.

High level sports are a bottom-line business. Through three years, Matt Rhule's bottom line has not been good enough. You know it. I know it. I guarantee Rhule and Dannen know it too. Wins and losses are what will determine if (and when) Rhule is fired, leaves for a different job, or announces his retirement.

By all means, go ahead and be upset when Nebraska loses. Tell anybody who will listen that you've known for a long time that Rhule can't get it done.

Just stop telling me about his backwards hat or how the entire trajectory of the program would be different if he hadn't gone to the Bud Crawford fight in Vegas last year.

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