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Nebraska's Most Likely Final Record After Five Games

The Huskers are in the exact same position through five games as last year. However, the analytics say the final record will be better.
Kaleb Henry|
Dylan Raiola and wide receiver Nyziah Hunter have connected on 17 passes for 290 yards and two touchdowns this season, helping Nebraska start 4-1.
Dylan Raiola and wide receiver Nyziah Hunter have connected on 17 passes for 290 yards and two touchdowns this season, helping Nebraska start 4-1. | Kylie Graham-Imagn Images

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Nebraska CornhuskersMaryland TerrapinsMinnesota Golden GophersNorthwestern WildcatsUSC TrojansUCLA BruinsPenn State Nittany LionsIowa Hawkeyes

For the second straight year, Nebraska football is 4-1 through five games.

Last year, the Huskers notched wins over a Power Four program, a Group of Five team, and an FCS foe, before dropping the Big Ten Conference opener and bouncing back in the next contest. That same pattern has played out this year, with a 30-27 loss to Michigan followed by a 38-27 bounce-back against Michigan State

Head coaches Jonathan Smith and Matt Rhule shake hands after the 2025 Nebraska-Michigan State game in Lincoln
After a second straight 4-1 start, Matt Rhule is now 16-14 at Nebraska. | Cory Edmondson, KFGE

In 2024, the Huskers improved to 5-1 before dropping the next four, eventually setting for a 6-6 record. That was good enough to earn a Pinstripe Bowl invite, which Nebraska took advantage of to notch a winning record for the first time since 2016's 9-4 finish.

So how will the rest of this year go?

According to Kelly Ford and the KFord Ratings, Nebraska has a solid chance to eclipse last year's output. Here are the game-by-game percentages of winning for Nebraska's remaining schedule.

The first true road game of the season is at Maryland this weekend. The Terrapins are 4-1, with wins over Florida Atlantic, Northern Illinois, Towson, and Wisconsin, and a loss to Washington. KFord gives Nebraska a 72% chance of winning the game, down from 73% at our last update.

Jacory Barney Jr. returns a punt 57 yards during the second quarter against Michigan State on Oct. 4, 2025.
Jacory Barney Jr. is the reigning Jet Award Return Specialist of the Week after his performance against Michigan State. | Cory Edmondson, KFGE

The Huskers stay on the road the next Friday to take on Minnesota. The Golden Gophers are 3-2 with wins over Buffalo, Northwestern State, and Rutgers and losses at California and Ohio State. KFord gives Nebraska a 74% chance of winning the game, up 1%.

A return trip home finds Northwestern coming to Lincoln on Oct. 25. The Wildcats are 3-2, with wins over Western Illinois, UCLA, and UL Monroe and losses to Tulane and Oregon. KFord gives Nebraska an 86% chance of winning the game, down 5%.

Another home contest the next weekend is against USC. The Trojans are 4-1 with wins over Missouri State, Georgia Southern, Purdue, and Michigan State and a loss at Illinois. KFord gives Nebraska a 46% chance of winning the game, up 1%.

DeShon Singleton had two interceptions against Michigan State, helping him earn Big Ten Defensive Player of the Week.
DeShon Singleton had two interceptions against Michigan State, helping him earn Big Ten Defensive Player of the Week. | Kylie Graham-Imagn Images

Back on the road, Nebraska travels to UCLA on Nov. 8. The Bruins are 1-4 with losses to Utah, UNLV, New Mexico, and Northwestern and a stunning win over Penn State. KFord gives Nebraska an 86% chance of winning the game, down 8%

After a week off, the Huskers head east to face Penn State on Nov. 22. The Nittany Lions are 3-2, with wins over Nevada, FIU, and Villanova and losses to Oregon and UCLA. KFord gives Nebraska a 34% chance of winning the game, up 10%.

The regular-season finale is at home with Iowa on Black Friday. The Hawkeyes are 3-2, with wins over Albany, UMass, and Rutgers, and losses to Iowa State and Indiana. KFord gives Nebraska a 65% chance of winning the game, down 4%.

If you take every game with a better than 50% chance as a Nebraska win, then the Big Red are in line to go 9-3. KFord gives Nebraska a 56% chance to win at least nine games, which is 2% higher than before the Michigan State win. The ratings also give the Big Red a 23% (up from 20%) chance to win at least 10 games, and a 4% (up 1%) chance to win 11 games.

Have a question or comment for Kaleb? Send an email to kalebhenry.huskermax@gmail.com.

Nebraska Football 2025 Schedule

  • Aug. 28 Nebraska 20, Cincinnati 17
  • Sep. 6 Nebraska 68, Akron 0
  • Sep. 13 Nebraska 59, Houston Christian 7
  • Sep. 20 Michigan 30, Nebraska 27
  • Oct. 4 Nebraska 38, Michigan State 27
  • Oct. 11 at Maryland TBA
  • Oct. 17 (Friday) at Minnesota 7 p.m. FOX
  • Oct. 25 vs. Northwestern TBA
  • Nov. 1 vs. USC TBA
  • Nov. 8 at UCLA TBA
  • Nov. 22 at Penn State TBA
  • Nov. 28 (Black Friday) vs. Iowa 11 a.m. CBS

Home games are bolded. All times central.

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Kaleb Henry
KALEB HENRY

Kaleb Henry is an award-winning sports reporter, covering collegiate athletics since 2014 via radio, podcasting, and digital journalism. His experience with Big Ten Conference teams goes back more than a decade, including time covering programs such as the Nebraska Cornhuskers, Oregon Ducks, and USC Trojans. He has contributed to Sports Illustrated since 2021. Kaleb has won multiple awards for his sports coverage from the Nebraska Broadcasters Association and Midwest Broadcast Journalists Association. Prior to working in sports journalism, Kaleb was a Division I athlete on the Southern Illinois University-Edwardsville Track and Field team where he discussed NCAA legislation as SIUE's representative to the Ohio Valley Conference Student-Athlete Advisory Committee. 

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