Three reasons why Nebraska will win; three reasons why Nebraska will lose vs. USC

After all the spectacular plays and the inconsistencies, the excessive sacking of quarterback Dylan Raiola, the gutsy performances of Emmett Johnson and others, Nebraska’s College Football Playoff hopes come down to one game.

Nebraska (6-2, 3-2 Big Ten) has a prime-time national TV game Saturday night (6:30 CT) at Memorial Stadium against 23rd-ranked USC (5-2, 3-1). Nebraska is counting on the night-game atmosphere at Memorial Stadium, the Blackout, and fans’ overwhelming support to push the Huskers through.

And maybe a boost from coach Matt Rhule signing a contract extension, which was announced Thursday.

The Huskers need a win over USC and still need help from other Big Ten teams, and plenty of it, as detailed here. But with USC, an influential program, in the house Saturday, it’s a chance for Nebraska to show its credentials and to show it’s worthy of CFP consideration.

USC is a difficult opponent but the Huskers really can’t ask for more. It’s their golden ticket — big game on a big stage with big consequences.

For each game, we will give you three reasons the Huskers will win and three reasons they won’t. The Huskers are a 6.5-point underdog at most sportsbooks.

Why Nebraska will win

This is it

There is no tomorrow for Nebraska’s CFP hopes. If the Huskers lose, it’s over. The Huskers are 3-1 in one-score games. If this game is close, the Huskers have some muscle memory that they can win a tight one.

The Trojans are 0-1 in one-score games, a loss at Illinois.

Strength vs. strength

Nebraska’s pass defense is ranked No. 2 in the country, allowing 127.5 yards per game. USC’s passing offense is ranked No. 1 in the country at 326.1 yards per game.

Interesting stat from BetMGM: Nebraska opponents has averaged 68.3 passing attempts per TD (205 pass attempts/3 passing TDs) this season — second-best among Power 4 teams; average: 23.2.

This is strength vs. strength, both teams relying on what got them here. USC effectively uses screen passes and quick outs — the Trojans destroyed Michigan with these plays — something about which the Huskers need to be wary.

In a Nebraska-wins scenario, putting pressure on USC quarterback Jayden Maiava has to be a priority. Nebraska needs to both contain him in the pocket and have pressure influence his passing and decision-making. But Nebraska is ranked 109th in sacks, with only 12 in eight games.

That stat has to improve against USC. It’s a way for the Huskers to win.

Improved pass protection

Last week, Nebraska was coming off an embarrassing, nine-sack game in a 24-6 loss to Minnesota. Can’t win that way — not Nebraska, not anyone.

After the Huskers bounced back against Northwestern, which had only one sack against Raiola, Nebraska right guard Rocco Spindler explained the improvement as “guys busting their tails every day [at practice], just coming in with their hardhats and getting back to work.”

It worked. Raiola was protected. This is essential to defeat USC. Another factor: USC’s pass defense ranks 80th in the nation (228.3 yards per game). The Huskers’ pass offense ranks 25th (272.4 yards per game).

With solid protection, Raiola and his excellent receiving corps could pick apart the Trojans. With the way USC scores points, the Nebraska offense might have to, just to keep up.

Emmett Johnson

He is the Big Ten’s second-leading rusher with 837 yards on 146 carries (5.7 yards per attempt). He also has nine touchdowns on the ground.

He also has 31 receptions for 182 yards and one touchdown.

The junior from Minneapolis has proven to be the Huskers’ offensive MVP, considerable on a team with a high-profile quarterback.

USC linebackers are the weakest link on its defense, according to the Los Angeles Times. That means if Johnson gets through the line of scrimmage, he could do some damage.

And Johnson often gets through the line of scrimmage.

Why USC will win

Jayden Maiava

Maiava has been outstanding. He gets rid of the ball quickly, which should slow down the Huskers’ pressure.

He leads the nation in yards per pass attempt at 10.2. Maiava is a true weapon that USC needs to win.

USC quarterback Jayden Maiava led the Trojans past Nebraska last sesaon in his first career start. | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

In last year’s meeting at USC, Maiava passed for three touchdowns and 259 yards in his first career start. The Trojans won, 28-20, the fourth consecutive loss for Nebraska.

Makai Lemon

The Los Angeles Times said Lemon: “has been the best receiver in college football through seven games, full stop. His ability to get yards after the catch is otherworldly and will make an NFL team very happy next fall.”

The Maiava-to-Lemon connection — plus productive tight ends Lake McRee and Walker Lyons — could lead the Trojans to victory.

These receivers should provide quite a challenge to Nebraska’s secondary — and vice versa.

USC is an offensive machine

The Trojans are fifth in the nation in scoring at 42.4 points per game. They will face a serious defense in Nebraska, which allows 19.6 points per game.

USC has thumped Michigan and Michigan State this season. The Trojans are coming off a bye week after losing at Notre Dame. Expect the well-rested Trojans to be at their offensive peak.

The winner: It’s easy to get caught up in all the hoopla: home-field advantage, night game, national TV for Nebraska. USC is talented and the bye week will really help. USC 31, Nebraska 21. Season record: 7-1.

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