Can Notre Dame be Trusted to Win a Close Game against Miami?

In an ideal world for Notre Dame, Saturday's all-or-nothing showdown against Miami will be decided well before the final seconds tick down.

If that's the case, one would think that Marcus Freeman's squad will have shown up and taken care of business in the way that it was supposed to, especially in the event that the Hurricanes will be without superstar Malachi Toney.

In an ideal world for the Irish, revenge is had in decisive fashion on Saturday in South Bend. If Saturday's grudge match hangs in the balance late, though, buckle up. A certain Notre Dame trend will be on the top of mind.

CJ Carr has never won a one-score game as Notre Dame's starter

He's 0-3 in those and 17-0 in games decided by multiple possessions.

Do you think that's a coincidence? Or is there something to be said for the fact that the Irish starting quarterback is entering his 21st career start and he has yet to win a down-to-the-wire game?

That depends who you ask. If you ask a Notre Dame fan, they'll tell you that a properly called defensive pass interference or a properly operated clock at BYU from that number not being "0."

Additionally, they'll tell you that Carr did his job last year vs. Texas A&M, and that it could've gone the Irish's way had they been able to have a properly executed extra point hold or if they had been able to get that holding call to negate the Aggies' game-winning touchdown.

For whatever reason, though, that number hangs over Carr. It's a credit to him that the Irish haven't played in more than three one-score games during his nearly two seasons as a starter.

In the first half this year, Carr has a 12-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio with 8.5 yards per pass attempt. Even though he got off to a slow start vs. Navy, he's gotten off to great starts.

The same goes for his counterpart, Darian Mensah, who has an 18-0 TD-INT ratio with an FBS-best 213.1 quarterback rating in the first half. Of course, that was with Toney available.

But yeah, it's obvious that getting off to a fast start matters a ton on Saturday.

So am I saying that Carr has been bad in the second half?

I didn't say that. A guy who ranks No. 45 in FBS in second half/OT quarterback rating with the No. 42 third-down offense isn't suddenly a liability in high-leverage moments, and that's not just the box score that suggests that. My eyes don't suggest that Carr crumbles in clutch moments.

In Notre Dame's three one-score losses with Carr as the starter, here are his numbers in the final eight minutes:

-2025 Miami: 4-for-6, 108 yards
-2025 Texas A&M: 2-4, 25 yards
-2026 BYU: 8-16, 74 yards
-Total: 14-for-26, 207 yards (1 TD run, 2 intentional groundings)

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Could those numbers be better? Sure. Failed last-minute drives vs. Miami and BYU sting even more knowing that the Irish had more than a minute left to potentially score a go-ahead touchdown, and both came up empty.

But this speaks to a bigger question with Carr that's still worth asking — is he the guy that you want when the bullets are flying?

Ask anyone in blue and gold, especially Freeman, and they'll give you a resounding "yes." After all, Carr only has one turnover-worthy play on 49 pressured drop-backs this year, which is an improvement on the four that he had on 76 pressured drop-backs last year.

If you're a believer in PFF's "big-time throw" metric, Carr has already matched his 2025 total with three such throws under pressure in 2026.

But Carr also just has one touchdown pass when he's been under pressure this year, and that's after he only got two last year. What did BYU do so effectively? It sped him up. In that game, Carr was pressured on 13 drop-backs, which was six more than any game this season.

In all three of the games that Carr lost as Notre Dame's starter, he was pressured at least nine times. Against teams that have failed to pressure him on nine drop-backs, he's 15-0.

That feels significant for a guy who hasn't taken a sack since Week 3

Miami might not have Rueben Bain and Akheem Mesidor anymore, but it's still a team that ranks No. 12 in FBS with three sacks per game. How Carr handles pressure will have a massive say in how Saturday plays out.

That's twofold. Handling pressure in high-leverage moments matters. On third down, Carr ranks No. 92 in FBS with a 124.7 QB rating. On 3rd-and-7 or longer, he only has five such conversions all year.

Ideally for Carr, he won't be in those spots. Notre Dame would ideally stay ahead of the sticks and string together scoring drives all game in a way that puts pressure on a Toney-less version of Miami.

We don't know if an ideal world awaits the Irish on Saturday. We do know that all the pressure is on Notre Dame to take down the top-ranked Canes and keep its Playoff hopes alive.

There's pressure on Carr to do something that he's never done in his career.

Now feels like as good a time as any to start a new trend.

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