Game Prediction: #4 Penn State at #3 Iowa
The two best teams in the Big Ten so far have been Penn State (5-0) and Iowa (5-0), and they square off this weekend in Iowa City. If the two teams continue playing the way they have through five games this might end up being round one, as we could see them facing each other again in the Big Ten championship game.
The Irish Breakdown crew has evaluated this matchup and is ready to make our predictions!
BRYAN DRISKELL, PUBLISHER
Prediction: Iowa 24, Penn State 20
I haven't been overly impressed with Iowa this season, at least in regards to them being the third-ranked team in the country. My issue has been its lack of an offense, but the Hawkeyes broke out a bit in a 51-14 win over Maryland that was fueled by a defense that forced a lot of turnovers and a big-play offense.
Penn State isn't Maryland and the Nittany Lion defense is poised to keep the Hawkeyes in check. Penn State has yet to allow an opponent to over 4.7 yards per play, but its rush defense has been erratic. The Nittany Lions have held three of its five opponents to 69 or fewer rushing yards, but the other two (Wisconsin, Auburn) went for 180 and 182, respectively.
I think Penn State keeps Iowa's offense in check but I think Iowa's penchant for forcing turnovers will give them a chance to outscore the Nittany Lions in what will be a relatively low-scoring affair. I wanted to go with Penn State in this game, but in the end I'm going with the home team.
VINCE DEDARIO, FOOTBALL ANALYST
Prediction: Iowa 17, Penn State 13
This might be the most intriguing matchup of the day for me. A top 5 Big Ten matchup in early October just does not happen. Both defenses are pretty darn good. Iowa is still creating takeaways from Maryland after turning over the Terps seven times. We know Penn State is battle tested as well after winning against Wisconsin and Auburn. Can either team generate a drive to win the game? That is what this one might come down to. I have a hard time seeing a high scoring game here and the O/U is currently set at 41.5 for which I would feel very comfortable with the under. I think Iowa will pull this out just because I am not sure I trust James Franklin in big games.
GRANT DELVECCHIO, STAFF WRITER
Prediction: Penn State 24, Iowa 21
This is going to be a great game. Huge resume builder for two potential CFP contenders. Either team is a good pick.
ANDREW MCDONOUGH, IB CONTRIBUTOR
Prediction: Iowa 16, Penn State 14
Penn State travels to Iowa City in the game of the year thus far in the Big Ten. This is a giant game for both programs, but especially for Iowa, who in a weak Big Ten West would be favored in every remaining game and have a great shot at being undefeated heading into the Big Ten Championship game.
Expect a low-scoring game between the two top scoring defenses in the Big Ten – Iowa allows only 11.6 PPG while Penn State allows just 12.0 PPG. A deeper dive into stats reveals these teams are evenly matched on almost every front – but here’s two that favor the Hawkeyes and will lead to their victory on a last-second field goal.
First, though Penn State ranks second in the Big Ten in turnover margin at +6, Iowa is an astounding +12 in turnover margin (which also leads the nation). Penn State QB Sean Clifford and the Nittany Lion offense have been much better at taking care of the ball this season than in 2020 (when they lost 17 turnovers and had a -8 differential), but the Hawkeyes excel at taking away the ball and winning the turnover battle and giving the offense short fields in a game like this is essential. Second, if this game comes down to field goals, I’d rather have Iowa K Caleb Shudak, who has hit on 89% of kicks this year, than Penn State K Jordan Stout, who has only hit 67%.
SHAUN DAVIS, ESPN CHICAGO
Prediction: Iowa 24, Penn State 20
Penn State is looking for it’s third win against a ranked opponent under James Franklin as they invade Kinnick Stadium. The Nittany Lions defense is only allowing 12 points per game. Iowa’s defense isn’t too shabby producing 16 turnovers and a +12 turnover ratio so far this season. Spencer Petras has been the perfect air compliment to Tyler Goodson’s ground attack this season, and that balance has given the Hawkeyes one of their best units under Ferentz.
Sean Clifford is averaging 289 passing yards with nine touchdowns in the last three games, and the dynamic pass catching duo of Jahan Dotson and Parker Washington will challenge a stout Iowa secondary. If Clifford can avoid being loose with the football, big play opportunities will be available to the Penn State offense. Both teams are averaging less than 4 yards per carry, while both defenses strangle rushing attacks. Third down conversions will be huge as well as both teams sit around 35% on the season. Therefore, the two quarterbacks will more than likely decide the fate of their team. This could be a preview of the Big Ten Championship Game.
RYAN ROBERTS, RISENDRAFT
Prediction: Iowa 28, Penn State 24
This is a tough game to call. Both Penn State and Iowa have been nice surprises this fall. I'm taking this Iowa run game and defense to make just a couple more plays. Hawkeye running back Tyler Goodson continues to put his name on the map.
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