Cover Three: Week 6 Best College Football Bets
There are a number of huge matchups in week six, but here are my top picks for the week.
Last week- 2-2
Notre Dame vs. Virginia Tech
Money Line: Notre Dame -120 Cincinnati -110
Against The Spread: Notre Dame -1 Virginia Tech +1
O/U: 47
Notre Dame’s season was always going to come down to this stretch of 4 games, and the road contest against the Hokies figured to be one of the most daunting tasks for the Fighting Irish. Brian Kelly says he knows who his quarterback will be on Saturday night, but he’s going to keep Justin Fuentes and his staff waiting until his offense jogs onto the field Saturday night. Jack Coan has started all five games this season, but he hasn’t finished the last two games.
One of the things that stuck out from Virginia Tech’s win against North Carolina was the atmosphere of Lane Stadium at night. If Sam Howell was affected, then expect any Notre Dame quarterback with a troubled offense line to struggle early on. The Hokies defense is fast and aggressive, and historically have great play in the defensive backfield. This means more opportunities for Notre Dame’s wideouts against bump and run coverage. Kevin Austin will look to respond to his subpar performance against Cincinnati as he did in his best game of the season against Wisconsin.
The Hokies didn’t exactly dominate Richmond in their last contest, but like Notre Dame’s last two opponents, a week off should help them get healthy. This game is huge for Virginia Tech, but their next game versus Pittsburgh probably holds more weight in their push for an ACC Championship. The Hokies offense has playmakers on the outside, but they’ve struggled with inconsistent play along the offensive line themselves. This game sounds like a low scoring affair that will be won by the team that makes the least number of mistakes. The best unit out of the four main units is the Notre Dame defense, and they’ll have to dominate on the road.
Trends: Brian Kelly is 2-1 against Justin Fuente. Notre Dame is 2-3 ATS this year, while Virginia Tech is 2-2.
Best Bet: Notre Dame -1
Penn State vs. Iowa
ML: Penn State -104 Iowa +128
ATS: Penn State +2.5 Iowa -2.5
O/U: 41.5
Penn State is looking for it’s third win against a ranked opponent under James Franklin as they invade Kinnick Stadium. The Nittany Lions defense is only allowing 12 points per game. Iowa’s defense isn’t too shabby producing 16 turnovers and a +12 turnover ratio so far this season. Spencer Petras has been the perfect air compliment to Tyler Goodson’s ground attack this season, and that balance has given the Hawkeyes one of their best units under Ferentz. Sean Clifford is averaging 289 passing yards with nine touchdowns in the last three games, and the dynamic pass catching duo of Jahan Dotson and Parker Washington will challenge a stout Iowa secondary. If Clifford can avoid being loose with the football, big play opportunities will be available to the Penn State offense. Both teams are averaging less than 4 yards per carry, and both defenses are nasty against the run. Third down conversions will be huge as well as both teams sit around 35% on the season. Therefore, the two quarterbacks will more than likely decide the fate of their team. This could be a preview of the Big Ten Championship Game.
Trends: Penn State is 4-0 ATS against FBS teams this season. Iowa is 4-1 ATS this season and that includes 2-0 ATS as a single digit favorite. Iowa is 7-8 S/U against top 10 teams at home under Kirk Ferentz.
Best Bet: Iowa -2.5
Oklahoma vs. Texas
ML: Texas +140 Oklahoma -160
ATS: Texas +3.5 Oklahoma -3.5
O/U: 63.5
The Red River Rivalry will be the main attraction of the big games this weekend. Both teams come into the contest undefeated in Big 12 conference play. That means it’s not only a huge game with conference championship implications, but college football playoff implications as well. Spencer Rattler has completed 78% of his passes over the last two games, and he completed passes to eight different receivers last week. Both teams have explosive offensive arsenals, although the Sooners would be perfectly fine with domination the time of possession with their running game. As always, emotions will be extremely high in the first half, and turnovers should play a key role in who seizes control early on. Look for big play from both offenses and defenses, and the opportunity to be the hero going to the quarterback with the ball in his hands last. Honestly, the Longhorns are really attractive as an underdog in this matchup.
Trends: Oklahoma is 4-1 S/U vs. Texas in the last five meeting, but 2-3 ATS in those games. Texas is 4-1 ATS this season, and 8-3 ATS in neutral site games since 2017
Best Bet: Over 63.5
Lock & Key Pick: Georgia -15.5 vs. Auburn
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Notre Dame 2022 Commits Big Board: Defense
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Notre Dame 2023 Class Big Board
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