Notre Dame Falls in Latest ESPN FPI Rankings as Championship Chances Take a Hit

Notre Dame received its biggest challenge of the year on Saturday, surviving a threat from North Carolina, and winning 37-26 to move to 5-0.

The win wasn't the most impressive by any means for Notre Dame, who had given up just 33 total points in four games entering the contest.

However, it was enough for Notre Dame to move to 5-0 and get set to welcome Stanford for Saturday's rivalry game in South Bend.

Notre Dame's showing against North Carolina was enough for it to take a hit in the ESPN Football Power Index, however, as it dropped in the ratings, and saw its national championship chances take a small hit.

Here's a weekly recap of the updated ESPN FPI numbers in regards to Notre Dame.

Notre Dame a Runaway Favorite vs Stanford

Notre Dame is 5-0 and rated No. 3 in the country, so its no surprise that it's expected to win in a runway against a Stanford team that is coming off a 57-3 loss at Wake Forest last week.

ESPN FPI gives Notre Dame a 99% chance at victory on Saturday, and I have to say that Stanford getting even a 1.0% chance is more than generous.

Game week

The Irish Wear Green game presented by @SoFi

🆚 Stanford
📍 South Bend, Indiana
📆 Saturday, Oct. 10
⏰ 3:30 PM ET
📺 NBC | Peacock#GoIrish☘️ pic.twitter.com/KdHZfd0QAN
— Notre Dame Football (@NDFootball) October 5, 2026

While Notre Dame fell one spot to No. 3 in the FPI ratings this week, you have to scroll way down to find lowly Stanford, who checks in as the nation's 108th best team.

ESPN FPI Projects Remainder of Notre Dame Season

For comparison, here is how FPI projects Notre Dame's chances in the remainder of its games this season, with the change in chances of winning since last week.

vs. Stanford: 99.0% (same)
at BYU: 76.4% (same)
vs. Navy: 98.9% (up 0.4%)
vs. Miami: 59.6% (down 5.5%)
at Boston College: 98.7% (same)
vs. SMU: 93.3% (same)
at Syracuse: 95.7% (up 0.2%)

While most other games stay nearly the same, the biggest jump is again Miami, who is now given better than a 40% chance of walking out of Notre Dame Stadium with a win on Nov. 7.

Notre Dame didn't look good against North Carolina, that's impossible to debate. It did what it had to do, but it had lapses at times, allowing 26 points to a team that has struggled on offense.

What's also worth noting is that it feels safe to assume Notre Dame was trying some things out against a North Carolina squad that has talent, and can give a better assessment than the likes of Rice, Purdue, or Stanford.

I'm guessing Notre Dame won't call the same kind of things against Miami that it did this past Saturday, and that's something the formula doesn't account for.

ESPN FPI's Updated Title Odds for Notre Dame

FPI also gives Notre Dame the following chances for the 2026 season:

Projected record: 11.2-0.8 (up from 11.1-0.9 last week)
Make the College Football Playoff: 94.6% (up from 84.8%)
Make National Championship Game: 25.1% (down from 25.7%)
Win National Championship: 12.9% (down from 14.3%)

Nick Shepkowski's Quick Thoughts

Ohio State doing what it did to Iowa only turned the computers more in love with the Buckeyes, moving them from No. 3 to No. 1 this week.

Yes, that is despite Ohio State having that early season loss at Texas.

The numbers continue to show that Notre Dame is very much in the national championship conversation, despite us not yet seeing it play someone of significance.

While Stanford will be a rout this Saturday, we should learn a lot, and get a very good sample against a good team when Notre Dame travels to BYU next week, as the Cougars are currently rated 16th in the FPI, and eighth in the AP Poll.

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