Fiesta Bowl Prediction: #5 Notre Dame vs #9 Oklahoma State

The 5th-ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1) take on the 9th-ranked Oklahoma State Cowboys (11-2) in the PlayStation Fiesta Bowl as both teams look to finish their seasons on a strong note.

It's a matchup of two of the best defensive teams in the country, two veteran quarterbacks and a coaching matchup that is completely opposite. Notre Dame begins the Marcus Freeman era while Mike Gundy is leading Oklahoma State to its 16th-straight bowl game.

Here are the Irish Breakdown staff predictions.

BRYAN DRISKELL, PUBLISHER

Prediction: Notre Dame 27, Oklahoma State 10

There are just so many unknowns heading into this game that it makes it difficult to really feel confident in what is going to happen. How will Notre Dame look under a new head coach, and with that coach now not calling plays on defense. There are kids leaving, kids sitting out, kids entering the portal but still player, possible injuries for Notre Dame, possible Covid issues for Oklahoma State.

With that in mind I'm simply going to make my prediction based on what I saw throughout the season when I broke down the film. If we saw in the Fiesta Bowl what we typically saw from these teams during the regular seasons I think the Irish win somewhat comfortably.

Oklahoma State's defense is outstanding, but Notre Dame has the kind of skill that could and should give it major problems. The Irish have a lot of weapons outside, they have arguably the best tight end in the country and even without Kyren Williams the backfield is loaded. My only question now is can the line protect Jack Coan. I expect the game plan to be sound, I expect Rees to be effective and I expect Coan to be sharp when he gets time. But can the line hold up enough to allow this to play out? We'll see.

My greatest confidence comes from my evaluation of the Irish defense. Assuming the defense looks like it did most of the 2021 season I don't think the Cowboys will be able to do a whole lot. Notre Dame should be able to control the line of scrimmage, and I have a sneaky feeling that veterans Kurt Hinish and Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa are going to be particularly good.

If the line does what I think it can and should they'll shut down the run game and harass quarterback Spencer Sanders into some big mistakes. If they don't, the Cowboys receivers and Sanders as a runner will make life much more difficult.

SHAUN DAVIS, IB RECRUITING

Prediction: Notre Dame 34, Oklahoma State 14

The Fighting Irish finished the year with seven straight wins and come into the Fiesta Bowl winning 39 consecutive games in which the defense held the opponent under 20 points. Offensive coordinator Tommy Rees and the offense know the output needed to secure a win according to that trend, and Jack Coan will try and orchestrate an explosive offense looking to get off to a fast start. Notre Dame and Alabama are the only two teams to average over 30 points and hold opponents under 20 points for four straight years.

Entering the bowl season, Oklahoma State led the nation in sacks and tackles for loss while also ranking in the top five nationally in total defense (No. 3), rushing defense (No. 5) and third-down defense (No. 2). The Cowboys defense was so good that defensive coordinator Jim Knowles got the attention of Ryan Day and was hired away to take the same position at Ohio State. Spencer Sanders has been turnover prone as of late, and he can’t afford to continue that trend against an opportunistic Fighting Irish defense.

VINCE DEDARIO, FOOTBALL ANALYST

Prediction: Notre Dame 31, Oklahoma State 17

This was certainly a tough one for me with some of the absences we know about and some we don’t. I have a very good feeling though about this team and what they can accomplish on Saturday. Some if it is about Coach Freeman and the energy he has brought but most is about how this team has played over the last half of the season. Yes, I know the caliber of the teams has not been stellar but anyone who knows football knows the offense has turned a corner since the bye.

The defense has played exceptional and gotten better it seems all season as they have grown into Marcus Freeman’s system. The unknown are clear and obvious. What will the playcalling look like under Mike Elston? How will the running backs pick up for Kyren Williams? How will Oklahoma State attack the safeties without Kyle Hamilton? Can Jack Coan continue his dominance? We will get answers to all these questions in due time but I think Irish fans will be happy with the outcome!

RYAN ROBERTS, IB RECRUITING

Prediction: Notre Dame 24, Oklahoma State 18

Two of the best defenses in college football keep the scoring at a minimum. The Marcus Freeman era begins with a W! The run game success is the difference in this one. Logan Diggs shows glimpses of big time ability moving forward.

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