Notre Dame Has A Clear College Football Playoff Path
Notre Dame ranked ninth in the most recent College Football Playoff rankings, and the Irish still have five teams it must climb ahead of. That seems daunting considering Notre Dame has just two games remaining, two games against a pair of 3-7 opponents.
The path forward, however, isn't as daunting as it appears thanks to the chaos that has preceded the upcoming release of the rankings, and also what awaits the teams ahead of Notre Dame.
I would contend that the path for Notre Dame has become quite clear, and is easier to attain than I would have predicted when the first batch of rankings were released less than two weeks ago.
Michigan State and Wake Forest losing last weekend were huge for the Irish. Oklahoma's 27-13 loss to Baylor could be huge for the Irish, as the Sooners ranked just one spot ahead of Notre Dame in the most recent rankings.
There are three Big Ten teams ahead of Notre Dame right now, but at best there will only be one ahead of them by the time the season ends. No. 4 Ohio State (9-1) hosts No. 7 Michigan State (9-1) in six days, and the loser will drop behind Notre Dame. A week later the Buckeyes travel to Ann Arbor to take on the No. 6 Michigan Wolverines (9-1). Assuming Ohio State beats Michigan State, the loser of "The Game" will also be eliminated.
The only way all three can be dropped behind Notre Dame is if Michigan State beats Ohio State, Ohio State beats Michigan (or Maryland upsets Michigan this weekend) and Penn State (6-4) beats Michigan State in the season's final weekend. Of course, we could hold our breath in hopes that the Big Ten West champ beats the East champ, but I'm not going to do that yet.
So with Oklahoma (9-1) going down and the Big Ten schedule being with it is, the Irish are likely to finish no lower than No. 6, assuming the Irish don't get leaped (see below). That absolutely puts the Irish within striking distance of a playoff spot if just two more things happen in their favor.
Here is the path for Notre Dame.
1. Win, But Do It Impressively - Notre Dame has yet to play a complete, 60-minute game where all three phases of the game come together. The Irish have yet to dominate an opponent the way it is capable of, even after a 28-point win over a 2-7 Navy team and a 25-point victory over 6-4 Virginia, who played without their Heisman contending quarterback.
Notre Dame hosts 3-7 Georgia Tech this weekend before finishing the regular season with a road game at 3-7 Stanford. Neither offense averages 30 points per game and both are giving up over 30 points per game. Georgia Tech is in the midst of a 1-5 stretch in which it has given up 37.8 points per game, while the Cardinal have lost five straight while giving up 33.8 points per game.
If Notre Dame is a playoff team, if Notre Dame is a well-coached team with talent, it should absolutely dismantle and dominate its next two opponents. If head coach Brian Kelly wants to impress the committee he must understand and embrace the need or his team to play 60 minutes of dominant football. This doesn't mean running up the score, but it does mean keeping the pedal to the metal. No running out the clock in the second quarter when you're up 21-0 with over a minute left and you have two timeouts in your back pocket.
Kelly has said time and time again that winning championships is the goal, and his team has a chance to play for a championship this season, but part of getting there is handling business in impressive, 60-minute fashion against two really bad football teams.
Georgia Tech hosts Georgia a week after it plays Notre Dame, and Stanford played - and beat - Oregon earlier in the season. They are not game changers, but when resumes are close having a more convincing victory over an opponent like Georgia or Oregon won't result in the Irish jumping them unless they lose, but it could bode well as the committee compares Notre Dame's resume to other contenders.
2. Fend Off The Big 12 - There is a reason Notre Dame must play its best football over the next two games, and that is to hold off the Big 12 champion. Oklahoma is likely to fall behind the Irish, but the Sooners still have at least two possible matchups against top opponents. It plays Oklahoma State in two weeks, and the Cowboys are just one spot behind the Irish and they are coming off a 63-17 beat down of TCU. The Cowboys could then either have a rematch against the Sooners or a rematch against Baylor, who will be ranked near the Top 10.
Simply put, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma will have an opportunity to be a 1-loss conference champion with multiple Top 25 wins in the final weeks of the season. Notre Dame can't compete with either of those things, which is what makes dominating its next two opponents so incredibly important.
3. Oregon Must Lose - If Oregon wins out it should absolutely be in the playoff. Not only would it be a conference champion, it would also have arguably the best win of any team contending for a playoff spot. That happened back in September when the Ducks out-played Ohio State for 60 minutes in Columbus, earning a 35-28 win.
Oregon hasn't been as sharp in recent weeks but they keep winning. Notre Dame won't and shouldn't leap a 12-1 Oregon team that wins the Pac 12 and owns a win at Ohio State. If Oregon loses at Utah (7-3) this weekend, to Oregon State (6-4) in the Civil War or either Arizona State (7-3) or a rematch against Utah in the Pac 12 title they will go the way of the ACC.
Of all the teams ahead of Notre Dame, I would contend that Oregon and Ohio State have the two toughest roads. Oregon, however, isn't playing as well as Ohio State and is more vulnerable in my view.
4. Cincinnati Must Lose - There are many who believe that a 1-loss Cincinnati team would get in over a 1-loss Notre Dame team due to their head-to-head matchup. I'm sympathetic to that view to a degree, but Cincinnati simply has not been overly impressive this season outside of their win over Notre Dame.
A 13-0 Cincinnati team will and should be ahead of an 11-1 Notre Dame team, but a 12-1 Cincinnati team with a loss to a team like SMU (8-2), ECU (6-4) or Houston (9-1) would give the Irish a chance to make their case that when looking at the entire resume they have a better case to make than the Bearcats.
Of course, if you're rooting against Cincinnati then root for them to not only lose, but lose ugly.
5. Alabama Needs To Lose - The worst case scenario for Notre Dame, barring utter chaos in the Big Ten, Pac 12 and Big 12 is for Alabama and Georgia to both win the next two weeks and for the Crimson Tide to then beat Georgia in the SEC title game. Considering both teams are now ranked No. 1 and No. 2, both are in the playoff with just one loss.
Alabama doesn't get in over Notre Dame with a second loss, especially if that loss is to Auburn. The only thing that could maybe change my view on that is if the Irish sputter the next two weeks against bad teams. A loss to Auburn and a convincing win over Georgia could very well result in the Tide staying ahead, or leaping ahead (should it lose to Auburn) of a 1-loss Irish team with ugly wins over Georgia Tech and Stanford.
Notre Dame can control staying ahead of the Big 12 teams, but Notre Dame obviously needs help to get up two more spots. It doesn't need points three, four and five to all happen, it just needs two of them to happen.
Notre Dame fans will be doing a lot of scoreboard watching the next two weeks. Kelly and his staff need to worry about the scoreboard as well, but its their own scoreboard that should be their focus, and whipping the next two teams in blowout fashion.
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