Notre Dame Should Have High Expectations In 2023

Notre Dame went into the 2022 season with extremely high expectations, ranking 5th in the preseason polls. Things went south quickly, but despite a strong finish to the season, Notre Dame failed to earn double digit victories for the first time since 2016.

Notre Dame finished last season ranked 18th in the polls after winning six of their final seven games, including a Gator Bowl win over South Carolina. Heading into 2023, head coach Marcus Freeman and the Fighting Irish have high expectations, but the range is a bit different than a season ago.

Freeman and his squad are ranked 13th in both the Associated Press and USA TODAY Coaches Polls. I've seen the Irish projected anywhere from the Pop Tarts Bowl to a New Year's Six game, and Notre Dame is considered by some to be a dark horse candidate to earn a College Football Playoff berth.

One thing is for sure, Notre Dame should be expected to improve on its 2022 campaign. ESPN Analytics project Notre Dame to be 10-2 during the regular season, and that should be the floor for the Fighting Irish.

Notre Dame returns plenty of experience from last season's team, the defensive staff returns intact and the Irish landed arguably the biggest transfer pickup in the offseason when quarterback Sam Hartman chose to come to South Bend.

So what would a successful season look like for Notre Dame? There are plenty of ways to evaluate that, looking at it from both a floor and ceiling standpoint. The floor for Notre Dame is the minimum of what they should do this season, with the ceiling being the best the program is capable of.

The 10-2 record from ESPN should be considered the floor for Notre Dame this season from a regular season standpoint. Notre Dame started last season 0-2, but they finished 9-2 after that brutal start. Expectations for Notre Dame should begin with a 10-2 record and go from there. Anything less than that should be considered a disappointment and barely a baby step from a progress standpoint.

What we saw from the Irish last season is that they can beat the best teams on the schedule on their home field. I'm referring to the 35-14 win over then 4th-ranked Clemson. This season Notre Dame faces three Top 10 teams (Ohio State, USC, Clemson), and two of those three games are at home. Going 2-1 in those three contests is important for the Irish, and doing worse than that can't be viewed as progress.

The next step in progress for Notre Dame in year two under Freeman has to be winning the games they are supposed to win. Notre Dame will be favored to win every game outside of the big three contests. It won't be easy, and road games against NC State, Duke and Louisville won't be easy, neither will the home contest against Pittsburgh. But if year two under Freeman is to be considered progress they need to at least go 8-1 against that schedule.

Go 2-1 against the "big three" and go 8-1 against the remaining opponents and the Irish reach their floor.

Obviously the highest ceiling for Notre Dame is to go undefeated. That would be an incredibly hard thing to accomplish against the schedule Notre Dame plays, but it's not out of the question based on the talent Notre Dame returns.

If Notre Dame wants to get beyond its floor and earn a College Football Playoff berth without going undefeated it needs to do one of two things. Going 3-0 against the "big three" and only having one stub your toe moment is the ideal scenario for Notre Dame, assuming that stubbing their toe moment doesn't come in November. If the Irish are able to go 2-1 against the "big three" it means they have to be perfect in the other nine games.

Here are several keys to Notre Dame achieving its ceiling in 2023:

*** Good health

*** Irish play clutch football in all three phases

*** Hartman is as good as advertised

*** Offensive line is dominant

*** Perimeter playmakers emerge on offense

*** Run defense takes a jump and the front seven is disruptive

*** Defense forces more turnovers

*** Special teams continues being outstanding

*** Breakout players emerge on both sides of the ball

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