SEC Powers Biggest Threat to Buckeyes' Title Repeat in ESPN's 2025 FPI Rankings

There’s no question that Ohio State is one of college football’s top programs. That fact remains every single season. But each year, the playing field is reset across the college football landscape. Amid another wild college football offseason, new contenders rise and old dogs fall.

ESPN has released its updated Football Power Index (FPI) data ahead of the 2025 campaign, and unsurprisingly, Ohio State comes away as one of the nation’s most feared programs. However, new and familiar obstacles stand before the Buckeyes as they look to defend their 2024 national championship.

According to the data and simulations, Ohio State has two prime contenders from the SEC with the best odds of disrupting a chance at back-to-back titles: Texas and Georgia.

The Longhorns have a 22.1% chance of winning it all and an 83.9% chance of reaching the playoffs, both of which top the country. The Buckeyes and Longhorns meet on August 30, and while a close loss won’t derail either program, it will help clear up the top of the college football mountain. That game ranks as the second-best matchup on the 2025 slate, only behind Texas and Georgia later in November.

The Alabama Crimson Tide joins the Buckeyes, Longhorns, and Bulldogs as the top teams on both sides of the ball, though Ohio State is at the bottom of that four-team list. All four programs will have new quarterbacks in 2025, and how those newcomers fare will play a much larger role in how these teams stack up at the end of the season.

Still, the tighter competition across the board in the SEC favors Ohio State to keep a cleaner record than those three. The Buckeyes are projected to win 10.4 games, tops in the nation.

Back in the Big Ten, Ohio State’s biggest contenders remain with Penn State and Oregon close behind. The Nittany Lions enjoy a luxury only one other team in the FPI top 10 has: a returning starter at quarterback, giving James Franklin’s squad a unique advantage. The Michigan Wolverines climbed into the top 20 of the FPI rankings to round out the top preseason contenders from the conference.

ESPN’s data predicts a tight race in the Big Ten with just 2.9 teams projected to reach the College Football Playoff. Unfortunately, the conference has just a 25.8% chance of winning the national title compared to the SEC’s 61.4% odds.

Overall, there’s little to indicate that the Buckeyes aren’t firmly in control of the Big Ten and their own chances of getting back to the promised land. That’s usually the case in Columbus, and like they say, consistency is key.