Who Ohio State Avoids in the Big Ten During the 2026 Season

One of the quirks of the 18-team Big Ten is that Ohio State no longer plays every conference opponent each season.

In 2026, the Buckeyes will avoid eight conference foes: Michigan State Spartans, Minnesota Golden Gophers, Penn State Nittany Lions, Purdue Boilermakers, Rutgers Scarlet Knights, UCLA Bruins, Washington Huskies, and Wisconsin Badgers.

With the conference race expected to be as competitive as ever, several of those teams could emerge as contenders for the Big Ten Championship Game and possibly even a berth in the expanded College Football Playoff.

Penn State: The Most Likely Championship Contender

Ohio State is not scheduled to play Penn State until the 2028 season, when Ohio State will return to Happy Valley. Of the teams Ohio State will not face, Penn State clearly has the strongest path toward Indianapolis. The Nittany Lions enter 2026 with one of the most talented rosters in the conference, ranking among the Big Ten's top teams in preseason talent evaluations.

Perhaps more importantly, Penn State appears to have received one of the conference's friendlier schedules. The Nittany Lions avoid Ohio State, Oregon, and defending national champion Indiana during the regular season, creating a realistic path to a double-digit win season. A big game to keep an eye on? At Michigan, October 17th, while Ohio State travels to Indiana.

While first-year head coach Matt Campbell faces the challenge of replacing James Franklin, the roster foundation remains strong enough for Penn State to compete for a Big Ten Championship Game berth. A playoff appearance should be considered a realistic expectation rather than a long shot.

Championship Odds: High

CFP Odds: High

Washington: A Dark-Horse Contender

Similar to Penn State, Ohio State is not scheduled to face the Huskies until 2028, when Washington will make the trip to Ohio Stadium. Washington may be one of the most overlooked teams in the conference entering 2026. Several preseason rankings place the Huskies among the Big Ten's better teams, and Athlon Sports listed them among the conference's likely playoff contenders.

The Huskies have recruited at a high level and continue to benefit from strong West Coast talent pipelines. Their challenge will be navigating a conference schedule that includes several of the league's heavyweights, such as at USC (October 3rd) and then hosting Iowa on a Friday night (October 9th).

Washington probably enters the season one tier below Ohio State, Oregon, Michigan, Indiana, and Penn State, but if the Huskies can steal a key victory or two, they could absolutely find themselves in the playoff conversation by November.

Championship Odds: Moderate

CFP Odds: Moderate

Minnesota: A Sleeper Worth Watching

Ohio State will make the trip to Minnesota for the 2027 season. Minnesota rarely generates national headlines, but the Golden Gophers have quietly built one of the more stable programs in the conference under head coach P.J. Fleck. Some preseason projections even identify Minnesota as a potential sleeper capable of outperforming expectations.

The Gophers may lack the top-end talent of the conference's elite programs, but they traditionally play disciplined football, run the ball effectively, and avoid self-inflicted mistakes. An interesting non-conference game is when Mississippi State will make the trek to Huntington Bank Stadium for a 3:30pm clash with the Golden Gophers (CBS).

For Minnesota to reach Indianapolis, everything would need to break perfectly. However, a nine- or ten-win season is not out of the question, which would at least place the Gophers on the fringes of the playoff discussion.

Championship Odds: Low to Moderate

CFP Odds: Outside Chance

UCLA: A Program Looking to Take a Step Forward

Ohio State will travel to face the Bruins in 2028. UCLA enters 2026 with optimism following offseason changes and a belief that the Bruins can improve under new leadership. Athlon Sports specifically highlighted UCLA as a team capable of taking a significant step forward this season.

The challenge is that improvement and championship contention are two different things. UCLA still appears to be a middle-tier Big Ten program trying to close the gap on the conference's elite. A game that looms large for the Bruins will be on September 26th, when UCLA travels to Maryland - after this game, UCLA may be 4-0, heading into a bye week.

If the Bruins can reach eight or nine wins, it would represent significant progress. A playoff berth remains unlikely but not impossible if several favorable breaks occur.

Championship Odds: Low

CFP Odds: Long Shot

Michigan State: Beginning a New Era

Ohio State will host Michigan State in 2027. Michigan State enters 2026 under new head coach Pat Fitzgerald and remains one of the conference's biggest wild cards. The Spartans possess respectable roster talent compared to much of the middle of the conference but face major questions about consistency and depth. Compounding Michigan State's upcoming 2026 season is the departure of J Batt as athletic director, clouding Pat Fitzgerald's first season in East Lansing.

The program's immediate goal is likely returning to bowl relevance and rebuilding a winning culture. While Fitzgerald has a history of maximizing limited resources, expecting a championship run in Year One would be ambitious. Michigan State will want to be 2-1 after non-conference play, as a big game at Notre Dame on September 19th (7:30pm ET kickoff; NBC) could demonstrate how far the Spartans will have to go to come back among the nation's elite programs.

Still, if the Spartans make significant strides this fall, they could become a dangerous spoiler for several contenders.

Championship Odds: Low

CFP Odds: Very Low

Wisconsin: Trying to Reverse Recent Decline

Ohio State will not host Wisconsin until the 2028 season. A few years ago, Wisconsin would have been considered a legitimate threat to reach Indianapolis. Today, the Badgers are attempting to recover from several disappointing seasons under Luke Fickell. Multiple preseason evaluations project Wisconsin near the bottom half of the conference and express concerns about offensive production. The Badgers will start off the season against preseason national championship contender Notre Dame in Lambeau Field on September 6th (7:30pm ET; NBC).

The Badgers still possess a strong football tradition and enough defensive talent to remain competitive. However, until the offense proves capable of producing consistently, it's difficult to envision Wisconsin competing with the conference's elite.

Championship Odds: Low

CFP Odds: Very Low

Rutgers: Seeking Another Step Forward

Ohio State will make the trip to New Jersey to face the Scarlet Knights in 2027. Rutgers has become far more competitive than it was a decade ago, but the Scarlet Knights still face an uphill battle in a conference loaded with blue-chip talent. Most preseason rankings place Rutgers in the lower half of the Big Ten. A crucial non-conference game will be when Rutgers travels to Boston College on September 11th (7:30pm; ESPN2), as the Scarlet Knights will need this win in their quest to get to six wins and bowl game eligibility.

The Scarlet Knights have developed into a team capable of reaching bowl games and occasionally upsetting stronger opponents. However, reaching Indianapolis would likely require a perfect storm of player development, health, and favorable scheduling.

Championship Odds: Very Low

CFP Odds: Very Low

Purdue: Spoilermaker Potential Remains

Ohio State is scheduled to host the Boilermakers in 2027. Purdue's greatest threat may not be winning the conference but disrupting it. The Boilermakers have built a reputation for pulling off unexpected upsets against highly ranked opponents, earning the nickname "Spoilermakers."

Unfortunately, most preseason projections place Purdue near the bottom of the conference entering 2026. Concerns about roster depth and offensive consistency have limited expectations. Purdue could start out 2-0 after non-conference games versus Indiana State (Sept. 4th; 7pm ET kickoff on The Big Ten Network) and Wake Forest (Sept. 12th; 12pm ET kickoff on FS1).

While a championship run appears unrealistic, Purdue could still have a major impact on the conference race by knocking off a contender at an unexpected moment.

Championship Odds: Extremely Low

CFP Odds: Essentially None

Final Outlook

Among the eight Big Ten teams Ohio State avoids in 2026, Penn State stands out as the most likely contender to reach both the Big Ten Championship Game and the College Football Playoff. Washington appears to be the strongest dark horse, while Minnesota could emerge as a surprise challenger if several pieces fall into place.

The remaining programs—Michigan State, UCLA, Wisconsin, Rutgers, and Purdue—enter the season with more modest expectations, though each possesses enough talent to influence the conference race.

Ironically, Ohio State's path to Indianapolis may be affected significantly by teams it never actually plays. If Penn State or Washington put together championship-caliber seasons, the Buckeyes could find themselves competing with those programs for one of the coveted spots in the Big Ten Championship Game without ever meeting on the field.

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