AllSooners Oklahoma Pre-Camp Predictions

With Oklahoma opening 2023 training camp this week, AllSooners takes a stab at some pre-camp predictions. We'll revisit these at the end of camp and again at the end of the regular season:

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John Hoover

OU Record: 10-2 (7-2 Big 12)

Oklahoma has the nation’s 57th-hardest schedule, according to Sports Illustrated, and because of the migration to the SEC lost its annual marquee non-conference opponent (Georgia). So going unbeaten in non-league play again should be easy. But the Big 12, as we saw last year, has become stronger all around. Texas has the best roster, Kansas State has the best coaching, and TCU has the league’s only playoff win. Will the newcomers present immediate problems for an Oklahoma program that’s obviously on the rise? The Sooners were 0-5 in one-possession games last year and need to re-learn how to win. It will happen in 2023, but it would stand to reason there will be roadblocks along the way. Texas and Oklahoma State (in Stillwater) could also be treacherous.

Surprise starter: Konnor Near

Konnor Near’s arrival from Division II Ferris State late in the transfer season seemed at first like an afterthought — a capable player who wanted a taste of the big-time betting on himself. But Near is a former captain, a two-time national champion and an All-American. He’s physically able, but listening to Brent Venables talk about him at Big 12 Media Days, Near adds something else to the OU linebacker room.

“Konnor is a guy that’s going to bring instincts, toughness, physicality,” Venables said. “He’s gonna be able to lead a defense. He’s going to be able to communicate. He’s going to be able to perform under pressure. And he knows right from wrong. He understands standards. He understands a locker room. He understands leadership. He understands tough coaching and he’s won at the highest level.”

Then there’s this from Venables on projected starter Jaren Kanak:

“Guy had hardly ever played defense (in high school). He was a high school quarterback, you know. They’d put him in there (on defense) and they’d bring him off the edge, you know, and that was it. So he had to learn how to get in a stance.”

Don’t be surprised to see Venables give Near every opportunity when camp starts.

Team MVP: Billy Bowman

If Oklahoma’s going to compete for a Big 12 title again, it has to happen on defense. Danny Stutsman will lead the Sooners in tackles again, but it’s the secondary that faces the steepest climb, and that’s why Billy Bowman will spearhead the turnaround. He’s a calming force, wise before the snap, clever after the snap, athletic and tough and physical when the ball is in his quadrant. In his two seasons in Norman, Bowman has 16 starts and has delivered 82 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, three interceptions, three total fumbles and seven passes defensed. His guile and awareness (think of the pick against OSU, where he decoyed Spencer Sanders into thinking one thing and then jumped the route) give him an innate understanding of what the offense is trying to do, and that’s invaluable for a proud defense that’s been wounded for the better part of a decade.

Best position battle: Wide receiver

Forget replacing Marvin Mims. That’s not happening. All Mims did was set the school record for average yards per catch: Oklahoma doesn’t have that guy on this roster. But what they do have is a bunch of eager, athletic, big and fast wideouts for Dillon Gabriel to throw to. Behind the two returning starters (Drake Stoops and Jalil Farooq), the competition will be fiercer here than anywhere to impress the coaches and earn playing time. Dynamic athletic ability will help. Foot speed will certainly be a plus. But blocking is a must. Who’s willing to be the most physical? And as much as anything, gaining Gabriel’s trust with precise route-running — are you open when he needs you to be, or are you still covered? — is paramount. Among the speedsters, Brenen Thompson has truly elite burst, Andrel Anthony has plus-speed to go with quickness, size and experience, and Jaquaize Pettaway is elusive with great vision. Among the big guys, Nic Anderson and Jayden Gibson bring a massive catch radius but need to show out in practice, and J.J. Hester needs to stay healthy and seize his opportunity. D.J. Graham is a wildcard after moving over from cornerback. LV Bunkley-Shelton is still an unknown. Gavin Freeman surprised some people as a freshman walk-on last year, but he may be primed for a true breakout season. OU’s third-leading receiver this year needs to have about 40-50 catches for the offense to reach peak efficiency. Is there anyone here who can achieve that number? Or will it be literally 7-8 guys catching 12-20 passes?

Big 12 championship game: (1) Texas vs. (2) Oklahoma

The coin toss that is the Red River Rivalry falls again to Texas — this time with a much more entertaining score than 49-0 — and the Longhorns navigate the Big 12 schedule with just one loss. It’s a rematch of the 2018 classic between Kyler Murray and Sam Ehlinger, and it’s a bitter pill for the rest of the Big 12 to swallow as the Longhorns and Sooners head off to the SEC after staging an epic clash for one final time in the Big 12. Who wins? Stay tuned.

Ryan Chapman

OU Record: 10-2 (7-2 Big 12)

The 2023 Big 12 schedule broke Oklahoma’s way. Brent Venables’ Sooners avoided Kansas State, Baylor and Texas Tech — all losses in 2022 — in favor of Cincinnati, UCF and BYU. It’ll be tough for OU’s defense to be much worse than last year’s unit, and a more comfortable Dillon Gabriel will bring more consistency to Jeff Lebby’s offense in its second season. Still, erasing a 49-point defeat to Texas will be tough just 365 days later, and Oklahoma’s stretch the final five games could be a headache travel-wise. The Sooners have back-to-back trips to play Kansas and an emotionally-charged Bedlam contest before returning home to take on Neal Brown’s West Virginia Mountaineers. Then OU heads West to take on BYU before turning around on a short week to close the year with TCU. It’ll test just how much the defense has improved, and the trip to Lawrence could prove to be a banana peel as the Sooners will try and contain Jayhawk quarterback Jalon Daniels immediately after Gabriel takes on his old school in UCF.

Surprise starter: Jake Taylor

Opt-outs and injuries along the offensive line provided a window into what the unit could look like in 2023. Tyler Guyton slid in at right tackle, and Savion Byrd started at left guard, allowing McKade Mettauer to bounce over to the right side of the line. While Mettauer was steady all season in 2022, he was part of Oklahoma’s interior that was a weakness of the offense. A former 4-star recruit, Jake Taylor will be hot on Mettauer’s heels throughout camp. Though he only registered 41 snaps in 2022, Taylor saw glimpses of action in eight different contests, and could bring a different level of physicality next to center Andrew Raym — and it could be on full display by the time the Sooners take the field looking for redemption in the Cotton Bowl.

Team MVP: Danny Stutsman

Linebacker Danny Stutsman took real strides toward the end of last year, but simply wore down at the end of games as a result of playing virtually every meaningful snap all season for Oklahoma. Not only will another year in Venables’ defense help the game slow down, Stutsman appears to have made huge jumps as a leader this offseason. OU’s defense has major steps forward to take all over the field, but Stutsman’s leadership behind the scenes this offseason paired with his production on the field will be the catalyst to a much-improved unit in 2023, which will help the Sooners convert close losses into wins to take a leap forward in the win column.

Best position battle: Safety

Wide receiver might see the most turnover throughout the entire season, but safety will pair a wide open battle with talent and experience. Key Lawrence has been a playmaker for Oklahoma’s defense, though he struggled at safety last year. Texas Tech transfer Reggie Pearson brings experience from both his time in Lubbock and Wisconsin. Billy Bowman returns as a two-year starter, looking to stay healthy and thrive in his second season at safety. Add in the 5-star talent of Peyton Bowen and the work Robert Spears-Jennings has done this past offseason, and the Sooners will have five options to play in two or three spots, depending on what defense Venables deploys week to week.

Big 12 championship game: (1) Texas vs. (2) Oklahoma

The Texas Longhorns are no strangers to preseason expectations, but Steve Sarkisian finally has the roster to meet the high hopes placed upon the ‘Horns. Quinn Ewers got a taste of life as a starting quarterback last year, and can now hone in on his footwork and decision making. Xavier Worthy and Ja’Tavion Sanders will be mismatches for any Big 12 defense in the passing game, and Pete Kwiatkowski’s defense took steps forward last year. Defending Big 12 Champions Kansas State will be formidable again, but the Wildcats have to make trips to Stillwater, Lubbock, Austin and Lawrence, all without do-everything man Deuce Vaughn. A Red River rematch on the way out the door to the SEC would be a perception nightmare for the Big 12, but the bitter rivals are the most talented teams in the conference and should meet for the second time in Arlington to close the 2023 season.

Ross Lovelace

OU Record: 9-3 (6-3 Big 12)

The Sooners should be an all-around better football team in Brent Venables’ second season. It would be extremely concerning if the improvement wasn’t major. Added depth in the transfer portal and a terrific recruiting class should buy Oklahoma a few more wins alone — coupled in with the fact that it’s the weakest schedule the Sooners have played in quite some time. It might be overly optimistic after the 2022 disaster, but Oklahoma has realistic shot of finishing the regular season with a 9-3 record.

Surprise starter: Justin Harrington

Justin Harrington could be a surprise starter on the defense. Both Venables and Dasan McCullough spoke of his leadership and poise at the cheetah position, and he has a chance to flourish with his size and speed. The Sooners have much more depth defensively, so they will likely rotate around plenty, but if the coaching staff trusts Harrington’s experience in the system he could surprise fans as a starter.

Team MVP: Dillon Gabriel

The season hinges on Dillon Gabriel, and his improvement through the air. If the Sooners reach double digit wins, Gabriel likely made a big jump in production. In his second season under Jeff Lebby at OU, the left-handed gunslinger will have more control over the offense and more knowledge of the playbook. He has a handful of deep-threat burners on the squad and could develop early chemistry with any of the newcomers. If Gabriel is able to stay healthy, he could be Oklahoma’s MVP.

Best position battle: Running back

Even though they’ll both get carries, Oklahoma’s most intriguing position battle is at running back. Both Gavin Sawchuk and Jovantae Barnes are capable young backs looking to break out after a strong bowl game performance. The Sooners also still have Marcus Major, who could still figure it out at any time. The position is loaded with talent — it might be unproven talent, but it’s a spot with projected playmakers.

Big 12 Championship Game: (1) Texas vs. (2) Oklahoma

How ironic would it be to get a Red River Rivalry Big 12 championship in the last season before the two teams bolt for the SEC? On paper, it feels like Oklahoma and Texas have the most complete rosters in the conference and each return a starting signal caller — which is a big deal in the Big 12. In 2018, the bitter rivals met up in Arlington for the conference championship, and there’s a very real possibility of it happening again in 2023.

Randall Sweet

OU Record: 9-3 overall, 6-3 Big 12

Oklahoma’s schedule this season is undoubtedly easier than the Sooners’ 2022 slate. After losing to Kansas State and Texas Tech last year, OU won’t have to worry about the Wildcats or Red Raiders during the regular season. Additionally, Oklahoma will meet TCU and West Virginia at home this year after falling to the Mountaineers and Horned Frogs last season. Sonny Dykes’ team, however, still looks formidable and it would not be shocking to see TCU steal a win from the Sooners. OU will travel to Cincinnati for its first conference matchup of the season on Sept. 23 to face a Bearcats team that should be impressive on the ground. With Arizona State transfer Emory Jones at quarterback, Oklahoma’s defense will have to be better at stopping mobile QBs than it was last season. Additionally, Texas’ talent will make the Red River Rivalry a tough game for the Sooners, who are looking to avenge their embarrassing loss from 2022.

Surprise starter: Nic Anderson

In an unproven wide receiver room, the Sooners need multiple players to step up as solid targets for OU quarterback Dillon Gabriel this year. After an injury-riddled true freshman season, Nic Anderson has reportedly had an impressive offseason and looks to compete for a big role in Oklahoma’s offense. Listed at 6-foot-4 and 209 pounds, Anderson has the body style that Jeff Lebby coveted during his time at Mississippi. A former 4-star recruit, Anderson is the younger brother of former OU running back Rodney Anderson.

Team MVP: Woodi Washington

Last season, the Sooners’ defense was not up to standard with a typical Brent Venables coached team. If Woodi Washington is able to be a shutdown corner for OU, Venables’ defense will likely see a drastic improvement. Washington is a veteran defensive back who has started for multiple seasons and has plenty of experience playing college football. The Tennessee native will be tasked with guarding many of the conference’s top wide receivers, meaning he will play a huge role in the success of Oklahoma’s defense this year.

Best position battle: Defensive line

After a lackluster showing from the Sooners’ defensive front last year, Oklahoma added a handful of talented d-line transfers over the offseason. With Da’Jon Terry, Phillip Paea, Rondell Bothroyd, Trace Ford and Davon Sears all entering their first year in Norman, OU will have a much deeper rotation on the defensive line. Additionally, the Sooners bring back veteran starters Isaiah Coe, Jordan Kelley, Reggie Grimes and Preseason All-Big 12 honoree Ethan Downs. Oklahoma also added 5-star freshman P.J. Adebawore, who was one of the top defensive line prospects in the 2023 recruiting class.

Big 12 Championship: (1) Texas vs. (2) Oklahoma

Even with three losses in-conference, the Sooners would still have an outside shot at making it to the Big 12 Championship Game if the rest of the conference is very competitive. While Kansas State, TCU and Texas Tech seem like OU's biggest obstacles in getting to the conference title, each of the aforementioned squads has their flaws. For TCU, they must replace 2022 Heisman Trophy runner-up Max Duggan at QB. The Wildcats have one of the tougher schedules in the Big 12 this season, while the Red Raiders still haven’t proven that they can compete with the top teams in the conference for a full year. While the Sooners have plenty of their own questions that still need to be answered, the talent level on the roster and the accomplishments of their coaches should give fans confidence that OU has a chance to return to Arlington in December.

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