COLUMN: Is Oklahoma Ready for the SEC? Not Yet, But They Will Be in 2024

Big news, even when it’s completely expected, still leaves something of a crater upon impact.

But even as the dust settles from tonight’s announcement that Oklahoma and Texas will indeed begin life in the Southeastern Conference in 2024 (as expected), and not 2025 (as advertised), the real question for Sooner fans can now be asked.

Is OU ready for the SEC?

Simply put, today, as it pertains strictly to football, no.

Life in the SEC will be harder. There are more 5-star recruits in the SEC, more future NFL Draft picks. Anyone expecting the Sooners to reel off six straight conference titles like they did in the Big 12 is either delusional or has something to sell you. That’s not happening.

But the painful truth is Sooner Nation grew bored with conference trophies.

We’ve said it before, and it bears repeating: Oklahoma has a better chance of winning the program’s eighth national championship as a member of the SEC than it would if the Sooners had remained in the Big 12.

While OU was on the national championship doorstep a handful of times from in the first decade under Bob Stoops — winning in 2000 and finishing second in 2003, 2004 and 2008 — in 13 of the last 14 years, the program drifted further and further away from college football’s big prize.

Even that one time OU did have championship talent and probably should have absolutely won it all — when the Sooners had Georgia down in the Rose Bowl in 2017 — they fell short.

To an SEC team.

Again, expect fewer conference championships for sure. But, line up two good recruiting classes, an elite quarterback and maybe a couple of impact transfers, and there will be more opportunities to win a national championship.

So, again: are the Sooners ready?

Brent Venables’ first team went 6-7 last season, and the Sooners lost five games by a touchdown or less — four by a field goal.

(OK, so add a clutch kicker to the shopping list above.)

So no, the 2022 Sooners are not on a week-in, week-out SEC level. Come on, they couldn’t even beat Baylor, West Virginia or Texas Tech.

The 2023 Sooners should be improved, maybe significantly, especially with the nation’s No. 4-ranked recruiting class in the fold. But still, OU won’t be at full strength this fall.

So 2024 it is, so say the powers that be, and the thinking here is that Oklahoma will be ready — maybe to chase 10 wins, maybe not. We don’t know what format the SEC will choose for its schedule. Eight conference games, or nine?

In reality, OU in 2024 could look a lot like OU in 2022: competitive just about every game, close whenever their quarterback is healthy, but don’t expect a lot of wins right out of the gate.

Save those expectations for 2025.

Speaking of quarterbacks, Dillon Gabriel has two more years of eligibility remaining, but whether he stays or gos, it’ll be a shock if 5-star recruit Jackson Arnold isn’t starting then in 2024.

Jackson Arnold and the No. 4 class in the nation, going up against an SEC schedule every week. That sounds like fun.

Don’t worry about Oklahoma’s finances or infrastructure. That’s the part that will be just fine come 2024 and beyond.

While Monday’s news came with the body blow of $100 million in lost Big 12 revenue for OU and Texas that can be “partially offset with future revenues,” money won’t be a problem.

Last year, the Big 12 distributed $42.6 million to its 10 members, and that growth has obviously begun to stagnate. Meanwhile, the SEC announced earlier Thursday a per-school distribution of $49.9 million. Now, that in itself an unprecedented 4 percent decline in revenue for the SEC from the year prior, according to USA Today, a drop that reflects a one-time signing bonus for the new deal with ESPN.

But that figure has widely been projected to soon exceed $60-70 million, thanks to that exclusive contract extension with ESPN. Other industry projections have shown revenue up to $90-100 million dollars a decade down the road.

That kind of money won’t be coming in for the new Big 12.

Most conference expansions pay the newcomers a graduated share — 50 percent the first year, 67 percent the second year, 75 percent the third year and 100 percent the fourth year, or some such formula.

It’s unclear if that’s the case for OU and Texas in 2024, as an SEC press release Thursday said they’ll be “full members … on July 1, 2024.”

And while OU’s campus facilities may be just a step or two behind the best of the best in the SEC, that’s about to change (again).

Remember, it was announced in September and the OU Board of Regents authorized in November construction on a new $175 million football facility east of Oklahoma Memorial Stadium.

As state-of-the-art as the Sooners’ facilities currently are in the Switzer Center — 247 Sports ranked it No. 10 nationally among college football facilities as recently as March 2021 — this new structure will apparently almost triple the team’s current available square footage, with all the latest tech advancements, of course.

The upgrade stems specifically from the idea of having to compete with the SEC’s best for top recruits. It’s the main reason Venables hired mover and shaker Thad Turnipseed (and the profound results he achieved in 20 years at Clemson and Alabama) as his executive director for football administration.

Is Oklahoma ready?

In softball, absolutely. “Patty Gasso’s Supreme Sooner Softball Machine” is the best in the nation. If anything, being in the powerhouse SEC will result in fewer run-rules and more actual losses (just a few), but a better overall product — and just in time for the debut of Love’s Field next spring (before OU switches leagues).

In basketball, sure. The SEC is good, but Porter Moser and the Sooners could use a break — of which there are zero in the Big 12. OU basketball should run to the SEC.

In women’s basketball — well, that’s a problem. The Big 12 is good, but the SEC is better. For example, the Big 12 currently has two teams ranked in the top 25 (Oklahoma and Texas). The SEC has two teams in the top three — and they’re both undefeated. No. 1 South Carolina has won two of the last five national championships, and the SEC has put two other teams in the finals during that stretch. And Jennie Baranczyk will be rebuilding her entire roster next year. That’ll be tough.

In baseball? Despite Skip Johnson’s magical run to the CWS title game in 2022, the answer here is no. OU’s facilities aren’t on the same planet as most of the big guns in the SEC. And don’t forget, OU’s Omaha magic ran out against an SEC team, which have now won three straight national championships, five of the last eight and eight of the last 13.

Gymnastics? Yes. Soccer? No. Track and field? Tennis? Volleyball? They all have major work ahead of them.

But let’s talk more about football.

OU and Texas have wanted to leave early all along, that’s no secret. But both schools have dutifully said all the right things. Best way to keep the lawyers at bay, after all.

So what happened?

From OU’s perspective, if you had seen the faces — and heard some of the words — of OU administrators in the moments after Oklahoma’s loss at Texas Tech in late November, then you’d understand why this exit has been hastened.

At the end of what some fans have suggested was a long, hard season of officiating calls (it didn’t seem like any more than usual, unless maybe you were looking for them), the crew at Jones Stadium in Lubbock ruled that OU’s overtime field goal sailed outside of the right upright — or directly over it, or whatever, and the Red Raiders won.

OU brass outside the locker room was visibly and audibly perturbed.

That was Nov. 26.

And guess what? Most of the reports last week that suggested an early OU-Texas exit could be forthcoming soon said momentum for such a thing had begun gathering in early December.

That’s surely no coincidence.

Either way, the SEC welcomes Oklahoma and Texas to the SEC in 2024 now, which is also when the Big Ten Conference expands to 16 members with the addition of USC and UCLA. At worst, having OU and Texas at the SEC table puts everyone on a level playing field when the time comes for boardroom negotiations.

The 2024 season is also conveniently the first year of the expanded, 12-team College Football Playoff.

Sooner Nation shouldn’t make any reservations just yet, but the reality is this: the CFP will load up on SEC teams. Forget about fair — it’s just good business.

And if four SEC teams land a playoff bid next year, it’s not too much to ask the Sooners to finish fourth in the SEC standings.

Is it?

Oklahoma’s all-time record versus SEC teams is 110-49-8. The Sooners have a winning record against everyone but Ole Miss (0-1), LSU (1-2), Georgia (0-1) and Florida (1-1).

Since 2000, the Sooners are 8-6 against the SEC. Not bad.

But that’s 0-2 in BCS Championship Games (LSU and Florida) and 0-3 in College Football Playoff games (Georgia, Alabama, LSU).

Are the Sooners ready?

Not yet. But they will be.